THE RYAN FACTOR: Poll Shows Romney Up on Obama In Michigan After Selecting Paul Ryan as VP

The Paul Ryan Bump?

The most recent polling information from Michigan shows Romney leading by nearly four points over Obama. Michigan, a state that traditionally votes democratic in Presidential elections, is Mitt Romney’s home state.

The polling results seem to suggest that Romney has gained support in the state since the announcement of Paul Ryan as his running mate. Ryan is from neighboring Wisconsin, which may have been a factor in the uptick in Michigan support.

“Romney has identified a clear game changer if his strategy is to divide the Midwest and blow a bugle in President Obama’s Midwestern Strategy”, states Eric Foster, chief pollster and President of Foster McCollum White & Associates. “Romney may be attempting to isolate Illinois and Pennsylvania by having Michigan and Wisconsin in play. That also limited Obama’s opportunity to strengthen resource and advertising in Ohio and Indiana if Michigan and Wisconsin are competitive”.

In spite of national criticism of the Ryan selection and budget plan, our findings suggest that Michigan voters are viewing both as positives for Romney. 36.11% of Michigan voters are more likely to vote for Romney because of the Paul Ryan selection while only 27.90% are less likely to vote for Romney. That is a positive statistical advantage for Romney of 8.21 points or 29.42%.

The latest polling from Wisconsin also shows Romney edging out Obama in what is supposed to be Obama-safe territory. What do you think — is this a trend we’ll start seeing across the upper mid-west? Fingers crossed.

POLL: Mitt Romney Leads by Healthy Margin in Aggregate of 15 Swing States

The latest numbers come from a CNN poll which, aside from showing Romney with an advantage in swing states, also shows that the Supreme Court’s ruling on ObamaCare hasn’t yet had an effect on national polling trends:

About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 “battleground states,” the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.

“Note carefully that this does not mean that Romney will win each of those states by eight points, or that he will win all 15 of those states,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “That’s both good news and bad news for Romney. The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama’s home turf.”

The survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

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Romney vs Obama: Mitt on Top in Latest Zogby Poll


Romney vs Obama

Obama’s Job approval is freefalling:

“President Barack Obama’s job approval rating has dropped to the lowest point of his Presidency at 39%, and in potential match-ups with Republicans in 2012, he trails Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush and Newt Gingrich and is just one point ahead of Sarah Palin.”

How well does Mitt Romney do among Independents in a hypothetical match up against Obama?

“Among independents, match-ups between Obama and Republicans Romney, Gingrich, Palin and Bush are very close. Versus all of these hypothetical opponents except Bloomberg, Obama draws between 36% and 39% of independents. He beats Bloomberg among independents, 26%-12%, but 49% of independents would choose neither. Obama beats Trump with independents, 36%-29%.”

Mitt Romney also performs well among Republicans in a hypothetical match against Obama.

“Among Republicans, Gingrich leads with 79%, followed by Romney 77% and Palin 72%.  One-half of Republicans would choose Trump over Obama, but 43% want neither. Bloomberg would get only 19% of Republicans, with 74% not wanting either the New York City mayor or Obama.”

The reason why Mitt Romney is will be a formidable opponent for Republicans in the primaries and for Obama in the general election in 2012 is that he appeals to more than just his base.  Not only do Republicans like Romney but Independents do too.

Go Mitt 2012!!

~ Jared A.