Romney Jumps to Big Lead In Nation Polls

Both Rasmussen and Gallup released polls ending yesterday on Leap Day, and the results show a literal giant “leap” in support for Governor Romney. The swelling wave of momentum has come rather quickly since his dual victories in Michigan and Arizona just two days ago.

The Rasmussen poll, conducted entirely yesterday, gave Mitt a whopping +16 point advantage over Santorum, while the Gallup Poll, a five-day rolling average, puts him at a +11. (Expect that to climb higher in the next few days)

Here are the total results for the poll:
POLL Date Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul MOE Spread
Gallup 2/25 - 2/29 35 24 15 11 4% Romney +11
Rasmussen 2/29 40 24 16 12 3% Romney +16



RealClearPolitics.com tallies and graphs the rolling average of the most recent national polls in the GOP primary - polls from the most recent week or two are typically included. With the release of the Rasmussen and Gallup polls today, combined with two older polls from last week that showed Santorum with a slight lead, the RCP average now has Romney taking the lead again - the sixth time in this race that has held top spot.

RCP National Poll Average as of 1-6-2012:


35.3 Romney +6.0 29.3 Santorum 14.8 Gingrich 11.3 Paul
- Perry - Huntsman - Bachmann - Cain

RCP National Poll Average Chart:

Milestones
Romney has broken through the 40 point barrier for the first time this season, and he has become the candidate to receive the highest RCP average for any given day - sitting today at 35.3%. Again, I would expect this to go higher in the next few days when the Gallup poll results start to factor out numbers from before Romney’s wins on Tuesday.

Has the last mole been whacked?
As the candidates announced their campaigns last year Romney started out in the lead in nation polls, and he retained that lead until mid-August. Since that time we have seen the lead change from Romney, to Perry, to Romney, to Cain, to Romney, to Gingrich, to Romney, to Gingrich, to Romney, to Santorum and then back to Romney once again. Candidates have each, in turn, surged to become the official challenger to Romney, only to disappear just as quickly as they came. After all, by definition a surge is only temporary, though Newt was lucky enough to get “two rides on the roller coaster”.

So, has the last mole been whacked? I don’t know, but I’ve got a good feeling about it going into Super Tuesday next week!

~Nate G.

Addendum from Ross: Watch Rep. Paul Ryan say Romney well on his way to GOP nomination below the fold. (more…)

New National Polls by Rasmussen and Gallup: Romney Up 8 Points!

The first post-Iowa national polls are out and Mitt’s path to the nomination is becoming clearer every day! Romney leads both the Rasmussen and the Gallup polls that were published yesterday, each by 8 points - though Gallup was +8 vs. Gingrich, and Rasmussen was +8 vs. Santorum. Here are the figures:

Rasmussen 1/4/12:
29% Romney
21% Santorum
16% Gingrich
12% Paul
4% Perry
4% Huntsman

Gallup Tracking 12/28/11 - 1/4/12:
27% Romney
19% Gingrich
13% Paul
11% Santorum
6% Perry
2% Huntsman

I’m inclined to think the Rasmussen numbers are more accurate since the entire poll was taken after the Iowa caucuses, while the Gallup poll is a rolling average of their last 5 daily polls. Their figures will be accurate soon enough.

So the Gingrich slide and Santorum surge are official. Rick Santorum finally gets his turn on the GOP pendulum - how about that? As of now, each candidates except Romney and Huntsman have enjoyed a surge. Examining the graph below you get the feeling the GOP has been taken on quite the roller coaster ride, except for Romney’s campaign whose is more of a high-wire act. (Move slowly and steadily toward your goal, and don’t stray off course… and you’ll stay on top.)

RCP National Poll Average as of 1-6-2012:


26.8 Romney +4.2 22.6 Gingrich 12.8 Paul 8.6 Santorum
5.8 Perry 2.2 Huntsman 6.3 Bachmann - Cain

RCP National Poll Average Chart:

As Gingrich and Santorum begin to trade places the new question is how low/high (respectively) will they go? Will Santorum muster enough support to become competitive in South Carolina? With Romney as the clear winner-to-be in New Hampshire, South Carolina truly is the last stand for most of the other candidates, and it may be Romney’s most difficult task yet. Whomever wins in SC will have great momentum going into Florida. If that happens to be Mitt we could officially dub his momentum as “unstoppable”.

~Nate G.

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UPDATE: The following tweet is even better news than the 8-point national lead:
(more…)

Following Debates and Christie/Palin un-announcements, Romney Retakes Lead in RCP Polls and Soars on Intrade.com

Debates have consequences. When you don’t prepare you don’t do well, and people will notice.

On August 15th Rick Perry announced his candidacy for the office of President and very quickly surged to front-runner status, a position that Mitt had held for some time. In the last few weeks we have witnessed three GOP debates, and we’ve received news that two major would-be candidates, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin, have declined to enter the race. These events have made a huge impact on the state of the race, which is now entirely different from just 6 weeks ago.

Real Clear Politics has a running average of national polls for the GOP 2012 that includes just the most recent numbers from a variety of polling organizations. The graph below (from RCP) shows the polling trends for each of the candidates. (Romney=Purple Perry=Blue Cain=Red)

Another site I like to follow is Intrade.com, which is online trading exchange website. Real people speculate on the outcome of certain events and basically buy and sell stocks (wager) based on how likely they feel a certain outcome is. It is interesting to follow since these are people who have money on the line and are watching the news and momentum trends with great interest. Below is a graph for the top 3 polling candidates right now and the closing values of their stock going back to the beginning of September. I included in the graph some dotted lines to signify when the debates took place, and when Christie officially declined to enter the race.

intrade-GOP-race-2012

My take: Team Romney is soaring high right now and it is evident by the high number of endorsements and fundraisers that are jumping aboard. But Team Romney shouldn’t become complacent (I don’t think they will) because as Perry’s campaign is taking a nose-dive Herman Cain is there picking up much of the slack. It is true Cain is rising very fast in the polls, but whether that rise mounts to a strong challenge against Romney… we will have to wait and see. Much will be decided in the coming debates.

~Nate G.