POLL: Obama’s Post-Convention Bump Falls Flat, Race is Neck and Neck

That was quick. After enjoying a post-convention bounce in national polls, President Obama’s numbers have fallen sharply — now in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney.

Obama 46% - Romney 45%

Here’s an interesting insight from the internal numbers:

When “leaners” are included, it’s Romney 48% and Obama 47%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either candidate but express a preference for one of them in a follow-up question.

Hard to believe that just a few days ago the media was all but calling the election for President Obama. The Romney campaign advised supporters and media not to pay too much attention to what they called a “sugar-high” — and now we see that they were right.

This race will be tight until the very last day. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

POLL: Mitt Romney Leads by Healthy Margin in Aggregate of 15 Swing States

The latest numbers come from a CNN poll which, aside from showing Romney with an advantage in swing states, also shows that the Supreme Court’s ruling on ObamaCare hasn’t yet had an effect on national polling trends:

About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 “battleground states,” the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.

“Note carefully that this does not mean that Romney will win each of those states by eight points, or that he will win all 15 of those states,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “That’s both good news and bad news for Romney. The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama’s home turf.”

The survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

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Mitt Romney Gets Some Tea Party Love in New Hampshire

Jack Kimball

Jack Kimball

New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman and Tea Party activist, Jack Kimball, had some nice things to say about Governor Romney. Chairman Kimball gives The Gov due credit for finding a state-based solution to a state problem:

From the PoliticalTicker:

It really was an innovative experiment, he’s a very smart man and what he did was he came up with this program geared for the state of Massachusetts, it was never meant to be some model for a national health care program,” Jack Kimball said on CNN’s “John King, USA” Monday.

“And Mitt Romney’s made it very clear and as recently as a few weeks ago to me that he’s in favor of complete repeal of ‘Obamacare’ and that each state should come up with their own plan.”

“It shouldn’t be as big an issue as folks are making it.”

Keep in mind, this is the same tea party-backed Chairman that was voted in by Republican officials at convention back in January. At that same gathering, (very conservative) attendees were invited to participate in a presidential straw poll; the results were very astoundingly in Mitt’s favor: Romney 35.1%, Ron Paul 10.5%, Tim Pawlenty 7.6%, and Sarah Palin at 6.9%.

HT: Revolution 2010

-Luke Gunderson