[To view my guesstimate as to tomorrow’s finish, click on the blue link below labeled CLICK HERE TO CONTINUE READING…]
Somebody in his campaign today must have mustered the courage to finally take Mr. Gingrich aside and tell him about this little website called Intrade (I believe that person still works for the campaign). Intrade has him winning Iowa at a probability of 0.9% today (margin of error?). And to be the Republican nominee? His “fall from grace” from almost 39.0% on December 13th to 5.4% today. So, Mr. Gingrich felt compelled today to inform the world he will not win Iowa. Thank you so much Newt for letting us know ahead of time! Good to know from you directly.
I am right!
Was it Newt’s Howard Dean moment here? Or was it all the news from around America revealing his carry-ons as we reported here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, or here? I think it comes down to his character and integrity issues. Pure and simple. And his inability and unwillingness to answer even the basics of his past and decisions. Stunning on his part.
I have to opine on the nonsense I hear from the MSM and others. First, GMR is not – I repeat – IS NOT capped at 25%! Enough of this. Any simpleton can see 25% is a floor! See how the perspective changes? But more importantly, this is the truth; not what they are reporting. Six other candidates make up 75% at an average of 12.5% each. Watch what happens to GMR’s floor when each candidate drops.
Second, FOX seems to be rooting for anybody but GMR. I think that is true, but so are all the other MSM outlets. Why is that? (more…)
So, what really happened with Newt 2008? Many pundits, here and elsewhere, divined his Newteness’ most recent statements as an indication that he would run after all. Then, with an obscure legal explanation, he puts the stops on. What’s really going on here?
The intrepid Byron York recites the more lengthy legal explanations behind Newt’s exit and notes:
The problem is that all that can be perfectly true and one can still ask why Gingrich did not know until Saturday morning that his going forward could involve possible violations of the campaign finance laws. Why go so far – creating a campaign website, securing pledges, taking a leave from Fox – without knowing the basic rules?
As the old maxim goes: “it is the first obligation of a statesman to get elected.” It appears that Newt & Co. just couldn’t figure out a legal way to get their message across and raise money at the same time. So instead… they folded.
Compare this to Mitt Romney, who set up the Commonwealth PAC, reaching into local state entities, raising money for local leaders, and taking the money leftover to pursue a run for the President — all of it through a legal, political vehicle. This took years of research, planning and preparation. And it worked.
Newt, for all his incredible ideas, is apparently handicapped when it comes to execution. Perhaps… his exit is all for the best.
Newt discusses his time as speaker and fields a questions from yours truly about the Toffler’s new book Revolutionary Wealth. The question he was asked was about his record. I think it was fairly pointed so he was getting a bit defensive.
I still love the guy… but I don’t think he can make it.