Scenario That Many Have Not Contemplated

Although, I believe that Mitt will win Iowa, this a very plausible outcome if things go somewhat differently.

Here it is ….
Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney a close second. Rudy a distant 3rd or fourth.
Romney wins Wyoming, which nobody is contesting. This is however, good for bragging rights later.

Romney then wins New Hampshire, Rudy a distant 2nd or 3rd. Huckabee finishes not far behind Rudy. Momentum from this win propels Mitt Romney to victory in Michigan, with Rudy 2nd, Huckabee 3rd.

Mitt then wins Nevada and Huckabee wins South Carolina.

Having gone 0 for 5 Rudy’s campaign collapses. Why would Rudy’s campaign fall apart after not winning any of the early contests? Think about it. For almost a year now voters have heard that Rudy is the front-runner for the nomination. Week after week of defeats will raise questions about why Rudy is not able to win. Failure to win first in the Midwest (Iowa), then in the Northeast, again in the Midwest and finally in the South and West, will take their toll.

This will be extremely difficult to explain away for a candidate who’s main argument is that he is electable. Romney and Huck will be hyped to the hilt for their success and commentary about Rudy will only focus on why voters are rejecting him. Ninety percent of the voters who have only paid a limited attention to the race, will be shocked at Rudy’s apparent dramatic collapse. Having suffered too many torpedoes to the Steamship Rudy, it will flounder and sink rapidly.

With Rudy out of the way, Florida then becomes a battle between Huck and Romney, as does the Feb 5th primary.

I really like our chances with this scenario. Although, I like our chances better with an Iowa win, which will lead us to almost certain victory.

Fans of Rudy Giuliani will contest the likelihood of this happening. However, the electoral history of both parties is clearly on the side of the above scenario, with no candidate ever having been able to survive such a poor start.

Romney Has HORRIBLE Hair!!

Steven Swint from Dry Fly Politics alerted me to his post about how Romney (with HORRIBLE hair!!) went out early one morning to help a guy clean up his yard in the wake of the San Diego Fires WITHOUT inviting/alerting any press
(original link here which originally came from a journal entry that someone shared via email with friends)
This is a man who doesn’t just talk the talk . . . he walks the walk of hard work, compassion, and Christlike service. Romney for President!

Jeff Fuller (Crossposted at—-> Iowans for Romney)

The McCain Exchange

I’ve argued before that McCain is an ideologue - persisting in ideas regardless of facts. Of course even an ideologue can be right. Such an outcome is more the result of luck than anything else. The more likely result of blind adherence to ideas is failure. It is much more likely that a man like Mitt, through rigorous analysis of facts and arguments, will have the right answer.

Such is the case of the exchange between McCain and Romney over “waterboarding” last night. Most pundits praised McCain for his spirited stand on waterboarding, even as he got the facts wrong. From James Taranto at the OpinionJournal’s Best of the Web:

This column likes and admires John McCain, but an exchange in last night’s Republican debate reminds us why we are uneasy with the idea of his becoming president. McCain had an exchange with Mitt Romney on the subject of “waterboarding,” an interrogation technique that the CIA is believed to have used to extract life-saving information from a few high-level al Qaeda terrorists. Romney has no clear position on whether waterboarding is “torture,” but McCain does. He said:

“I am astonished that you would think such a-such a torture would be inflicted on anyone in our-who we are held captive and anyone could believe that that’s not torture. It’s in violation of the Geneva Convention. It’s in violation of existing law.

“And, governor, let me tell you, if we’re going to get the high ground in this world and we’re going to be the America that we have cherished and loved for more than 200 years. We’re not going to torture people.

“We’re not going to do what Pol Pot did. We’re not going to do what’s being done to Burmese monks as we speak.”

Romney persisted in leaving his options open, and McCain replied:

“Well, then you would have to advocate that we withdraw from the Geneva Conventions, which were for the treatment of people who were held prisoners, whether they be illegal combatants or regular prisoners of war. Because it’s clear the definition of torture.”

McCain profoundly misunderstands the Geneva Conventions, which were designed to impose basic rules of warfare. Protecting those who ignore the rules is directly contrary to the purpose of the conventions.

The conventions did not in fact protect illegal combatants, and to the extent that they now do, it is the result only of activist judges-namely, the five justices who ruled last year, in Hamdan v. Rumsfeld, that enemy combatants are entitled to some protections under the conventions’ Common Article 3-which was written to apply to civil wars, not conflicts with international terrorist organizations. (For a full exposition, see our June 26 Wall Street Journal op-ed.)

It is true that it would be a violation of international law to torture even an al Qaeda terrorist. The relevant treaty, however, is not the Geneva Conventions but the Convention Against Torture, which imposes an absolute ban. If McCain doesn’t know this, why is even Romney eager to credit him as some sort of authority? “Sen. McCain,” Romney said, “I appreciate your strong response, and you have the credentials upon which to make that response.”

McCain, of course, is supposed to have “moral authority” because, as a naval airman decades ago, he was tortured at the hands of his North Vietnamese communist captors. (By the way, were any of them ever tried for war crimes?) Moral authority, however, is not a substitute for accurate information.

Furthermore, it is a matter of controversy whether waterboarding constitutes torture. McCain’s position is certainly a defensible one, but we find his instinct unsettling. There are going to be gray areas in the war on terror, and we’d rather have the man at the top be someone who, when faced with difficult questions, errs on the side of protecting American women and children from being murdered rather than protecting terrorists from being treated unpleasantly.

Romney Wins Virginia “Primary Race”

The first “primary” race in Virginia just took place today! And Romney won.

At 1:30 today, Mitt Romney filed 15,000 signatures to meet the requirements for Virginia presidential primary.

Every campaign in the race will tell you that Virginia has the most difficult process to get on the ballot. You have to submit 10,000 signatures with at least 400 signatures from each 11 congressional districts. Each county or city entity has to have its own petition page for signatures and you need the voter address and in some cases the last four digits of the social security number for it to be valid. People who collect signatures have to be registered voters in Virginia (in other words you can’t farm this out to high schoolers).

The VA ballot submissions opened up yesterday and as far as we know Romney is the first candidate to file.

Other candidates like Huckabee are paying 50 cents per signature. Thompson and Edwards are just getting started.

It will be interesting to see on December 14th who the actual candidates will be on the ballot.

As background, there are only a handful of paid staffers for Romney in Virginia but dozens (if not hundreds) of volunteers chipped in during the elections in November to help get the signatures required. Whole Saturdays were dedicated to rounding up the needed votes. Unlike other campaign Romney did this with a grassroots flare and did not outsource it.

Kudos to Team Romney, Lt. Gov. Bolling, and the VA team for making this happen.

This is one more example of why Romney is the best candidate to face the formidable forces of the DEMS in the general election.

Wham! Bam! Thank you David Keene

Fresh off his excellent showing at the debate Wednesday night, Mitt Romney announces the endorsement of American Conservative Union President David Keene. WP Blog has the details:

Keene said he became “convinced that Mitt Romney represents our best hope for 2008″ and added that in the weeks remaining before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, 2008 he would work to persuade “my fellow conservatives that if we are serious about electing a conservative president in 2008, it’s time to unite behind his candidacy.”

Long courted by Romney, Keene agreed to formalize his endorsement of the former governor during a face to face meeting in Florida on Tuesday, according to knowledgeable sources. Of Keene, Romney said he was “proud” to have the endorsement for his “campaign for conservative change.”

Keene is a longtime member of the conservative movement, having spent the last quarter-century at the American Conservative Union. Prior to that post, Keene held a number of political positions including Southern regional political director for Ronald Reagan in 1976, national political director for George H. W. Bush in 1980 and senior adviser to Bob Dole in 1988 and 1996.

Romney Strategy: Win the Debate, then Win It Again!

I just finished watching the debate on the 11:00 replay. I thought is was pretty engaging and I think that Romney won decisively.

One thing that gets me excited about Romney is that his message machine is always running full throttle. Everyone of us should hold the Bush administration accountable for their total inability to communicate and get out their message. We need a President who can flood the zone of communications and win the war of words.

Talking to a few other bloggers they tell me the first Romney videos were up on YouTube just minutes into the debate. Email endorsements followed. Of course, the “what they’re saying” emails were fresh off the presses minutes after debate. Also, notice also the full court press of videos by Romney endorsers in support of their candidate.

This is the best of both worlds: win the debate in actuality and then win it again in the press. Is this how Iowa will play out?

Running Thoughts on the Debate (Part 2)

-Crime, wow that was dreadfully understated, I am surprised that Rudy didn’t try to hammer his crime record home.

-Wow, Paul said something coherent.

-Thompson made a good point about abortion.

-Federal ban question is interesting. Giuliani gave the politically correct answer on Roe v. Wade. Romney had a good

-“Death penalty, what would Jesus do?” I hate that argument. Jesus wasn’t all sunshine and fluff. Read the New Testament.

-“Jesus was too smart to run for public office.” –Huckabee. As much as I hate to admit it, that line was golden.

-“Do you believe every word in the Bible?”

-Rudy seemed uncomfortable with the question.

-“I believe the Bible is the word of God.” – Romney

-Alright, Huckabee, we know you were a minister.

-Romney’s videos are always the best. I liked the rolling up the sleeves


-“What would you do as President to repair the image of the United States in the Muslim world?” Why is no one asking the Muslim world how they can repair their image in our eyes?

-Rudy always gives great answers in relation to terrorism questions, as does John McCain.

-Ok, the best line may now go to Duncan Hunter. “I will never apologize for the United States of America.”

-Romney always gives great answers when asked about terrorism and methods used.

-Oh, McCain just hit him with righteous indignation. Romney’s response was good, though. I doubt this will leave a lasting impression.

-The British were the ones that messed up the political boundaries in the Middle East in the first half of last century.

-Ron Paul couldn’t even name the Kurds to the North.

-Ron Paul is completely wrong. The terrorists hate the west because they do not dominate the west. They want to dominate the west. The Arabs as a people once dominated the world but were stopped. Then they faded and became backwater countries and are angry about it. They believe that they have the right to take over the world. It doesn’t matter what we do, the terrorists will still behave the same way.

-Rudy was a great mayor, but a great mayor does not make a great president.

-Too much power for the VP? I don’t know, but I’m pretty impressed with a man that shot another man in the face and the guy who he shot wound up apologizing to him for causing him trouble. I love Dick Cheney.


-A homosexual General just asked a question about homosexuals in the military. This guy is trying to make one last stand for his homosexuality. This may be controversial, but homosexuality is a choice. If one wants to serve in the military, one must choose which is more important to them. In the military, the needs of the many DEFINITELY outweigh the needs of the few.

-National debt question. Fred had a good quip, “I would protect their generation from our generation.”

-Again, Romney is the only one I trust in relation to economics and fixing our fiscal problems.

-Why don’t African-Americans vote for Republicans? My answer is that unfortunately, as a community, they bought the Democrat lie that Democrats care more about them than Republicans do. Then, over the years the Republicans have written off their vote. Elections are a game of numbers and are often thought of in the short-term. The minority vote has note been cultivated because it is doubted that it can be counted on.

-Dicey question, a question about the Confederate flag… Romney’s answer was great. The Confederate flag has no place in the public sphere.

-Ron Paul was asked about running as an independent and said that he was not going to because he was a Republican. That didn’t stop him from running for President as a Libertarian in the past.

-The last question was a softball and Giuliani handled a laugher. Rudy laughingly pointed out that the Yankees hadn’t won a World Series since he left office.

-As a Mets fan, Romney clearly at the best line of the night: “Like most Americans, we love our sports teams, and hate the Yankees.”

-Overall this debate has been extremely entertaining. The question is, did we demean the process? I believe we did. I believe that Americans do have the right to question their potential leaders, but the manner in which it was done is ridiculous. The YouTube debate should never happen again. I was for the debate and even joined Patrick Ruffini’s petition to save it, because the Democrats did it and it put the Republicans in the position that they would look like tightwads by refusing to participate. The bottom line is that this debate hurt the dignity of the process. If you were a foreigner or a terrorist watching this debate, what would you think? The format of the debate was horrendous.

Running Thoughts on the Debate (Part 1)

I wrote down my thoughts as the debate was running. I thought I’d share them with you. These are unedited.

Running Thoughts:

-Thank God Anderson Cooper is moderating this instead of Wolf Bitzer.

-Governor Crist has sure spent a lot of time in the tanning bed.

-I sure hope that Duncan Hunter gets a cabinet position.

-What is Ron Paul still doing on the stage?

-Was it just me or did Mitt get the biggest cheer when he came out?

-Gloria Borger just said she expects to see Romney taking a lot of hits “because he really the man to beat.”

-The montage at the beginning was hilarious but probably demonstrative of how ridiculous this may become. Hopefully I am proven wrong.

-The first video, the one where the guy played the song was hilarious.

-Brooklyn guy asked great question and nailed Rudy on illegal immigration and really nailed him. For all the talk that Romney is a flip-flopper, Rudy is a flip-flopper on illegal immigration. Romney got a great follow-up and explained his opinion very well. Romney got pissed at Rudy’s point, but it was good that he showed his anger. Unfortunately, I think that Rudy won the exchange because of his very basic response that illegal immigrants had worked at Romney’s house.

-Wow, there is real animosity between Rudy and Mitt.

-Here’s the real story about Romney’s “employment” of illegal immigrants. He hired a landscaping service to work the grounds of his home. How many of us actually check the green cards of people that work for our landscapers?

-Is it me or is it impossible to watch Fred Thompson speak without thinking of Arthur Branch? (His role on Law and Order) Thompson just insulted Rudy about Kerik without mentioning his name. I laughed out loud.

-Rudy is losing steam on illegal immigration because others, not just Romney refuted his claim that NYC wasn’t a sanctuary city.

-Giuliani’s and McCain’s habit of splitting hairs on illegal immigration annoys me. New York was/is a sanctuary city, while McCain’s immigration bill was amnesty.

-Tancredo has a good sense of humor. He’s a one issue guy, but I agree with his stance on that issue. “I reject that there are jobs that no American will take.” Good statement.

-Duncan Hunter could probably kill a man with one hand tied behind his back.

-There is no question that we need to secure our borders. The crowd was behind answers that said as such.

-Huckabee just got nailed on illegal immigration by comparing illegal aliens tuition breaks with the children of military members.

-This may be the line of the night, “Mike, it’s not your money. It’s the taxpayer’s money.” –Romney

-Romney has a Joint MBA/JD from Harvard and he graduated with honors. Does anyone realize how hard that is to achieve?

-Ron Paul looks like he is going to keel over.

-Republicans did let spending get out of control.

-McCain made a great point about the SCHIP. I also think he plays well in the debates. I wish he was as conservative in real life as he is on TV.

-Mitt is the only one I really trust in terms of curbing spending.

-The out-of-control spending has really hurt the Republican Party. When your base is upset with you, you are not in a good situation.

-Ron Paul got owned by McCain. His supporters tried to drown McCain out. I have absolutely no respect for Ron Paul or his supporters. Get Ron Paul off the stage. He has no business being there.

-Getting rid of the IRS and the Fair-Tax got Huckabee good applause.

-I really don’t think Huckabee would keep to that pledge given this and other things he’s done.

-Mitt just gave good reasoning why he supports farm subsidies AND tied it in with energy independence. Nice.

-Tancredo’s video was cool.

-Romney is pro-life.

-Commercial Break-

-Thompson made me laugh with his comment about not telling anyone where his guns are. I’m surprised that McCain does not own a gun.

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