There is a lot of talk in the press about Obama’s post-convention bounce, but perhaps the most overlooked development of the last few days is that Romney, for the first time in the election, has taken the lead in the crucial swing state of Virginia.
Obama won Virginia in 2008 by over 6 percentage points despite its traditionally “red” leanings in the past. But with Virginia moving Romney’s direction, it represents a major development for the presidential campaign.
Virginia is just the latest in a string of swing states that continue to move in Romney’s direction. In particular, Arizona was once thought to be a competitive state for Obama, but has moved firmly into Romney’s column over the last few months.
Other important swing states that keep moving Romney’s direction are Missouri, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Missouri currently shows Romney with a 6 point lead. And North Carolina, the state where Obama’s convention was held, also shows continued momentum for Romney where Romney is up by over 3 points. All of these swing states illustrate the precarious and dangerous environment Obama finds himself in.
So while Obama is undergoing a temporary bounce from his convention, I am reminded of the Republican Primary where competitors rose and fell with great regularity, some in dramatic fashion. Romney knows how to ride out a temporary bump in the polls. And Obama’s bump will be no different.