Lastest PA Poll: Romney by 5!

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The Keystone State race just got a little more interesting. According to a poll released last night by Public Policy Polling Governor Romney leads former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum by a 5 point margin, and whereas Romney was down by 18 points last month that makes for a 23 point swing in one month!

The PA numbers:
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Rick Santorum has staked his continued candidacy hopes in winning his home state. Pennsylvania is one of five states to hold their primary contests coming up on April 24. The other four states (NY, DE, CT, RI) are each a “gimme” for the Governor. If Romney wins a clean sweep of those four PLUS Pennsylvania… well it will officially be more over than it already is now.

Anyone else think it’s quite telling that Santorum may lose his home state, and Romney won his 72-12? A 60 point margin!

Below the fold: cross-tab takeaways, and a “When will Santorum exit the race?” poll.
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PPP: GOP’s Best Bet to Defeat Obama is Mitt Romney


Public Policy Polling asks “Does the GOP need Romney to win?”

PPP research in Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, Michigan, and North Carolina reveals the answer…

A broad theme has been emerging in our state by state Presidential polling over the last couple months: if the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney it’s a toss up. And if they nominate anyone else it’s 2008 all over again. Our newest Nevada numbers very much reinforce that trend.

Barack Obama took the Silver State by 12 points in his first run. But if he had to stand for reelection today he’d be in a very competitive race against Romney, leading only 47-46 in the state. Pit him against any of the other Republicans there though and the numbers look pretty similar to last time- 9 point advantages over Herman Cain and Rick Perry at 48-39 and 49-40 respectively, a 10 point lead over Michele Bachmann at 50-40, and a 12 point advantage over Sarah Palin at 51-39.

Over the last month we’ve had similar findings in:

-Pennsylvania, where Obama is tied with Romney but leads all other Republicans by at least 7 points.

-New Hampshire, where Romney leads Obama by 2 points but all other Republicans trails Obama by at least 7.

-Virginia, where Obama leads Romney by 4 but has at least a 9 point advantage over all the rest of the GOP hopefuls.

-Michigan, where Obama has a 5 point advantage over Romney but at least a 15 point lead over everyone else.

-North Carolina, where the disparity between Romney and the rest of the Republicans isn’t quite as great. Obama and Romney are tied while Obama leads all the others by at least 3 points.

Taken all together it makes you ask the question: do Republicans have to nominate Romney to defeat Obama next year?
[...]
Obama’s holding his ground against everyone but Romney in Nevada because voters there find the whole GOP field even more unpalatable than him. Romney comes close to breaking even on favorability at 38/43 but the rest of the Republicans are quite unpopular- a -9 spread for Cain at 24/33, a -12 for Perry at 24/36, a -21 for Bachmann at 30/51, and a -28 for Palin at 32/60.

(emphasis added)


Read complete details here.


Considering ALL the media exposure Obama receives and that Romney, as the presumptive front runner, is taking hits from all sides, and that The Gov is just now shifting his presidential campaign into higher gear, our man Mitt is doing pretty darn well against our bully pulpit President.

H/t Lori
► Jayde Wyatt

New Polls Show Romney As Best Candidate to Go Against Obama, Romney Pulls into Virtual Tie

Rasmussen reported on Wednesday:

In a very early look at Election 2012, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are essentially even.

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Romney attracting 43% of the vote while Obama earns support from 42%. In April, Obama held a five-point edge over Romney.

The news continues to get better for Romney. Public Policy Poll’s most recent survey also puts Mitt up by a point against Obama:

For the first time since last July Barack Obama does not lead Mitt Romney in PPP’s monthly national poll on the 2012 Presidential race. Romney has now pulled into a tie with the President at 45%.

Obama’s approval rating this month is 46% with 48% of voters disapproving of him. There are 2 things particularly troubling in his numbers: independents split against him by a 44/49 margin, and 16% of Democrats are unhappy with the job he’s doing while only 10% of Republicans give him good marks. Republicans dislike him at this point to a greater extent than Democrats like him and that will be a problem for him moving forward if it persists.

Romney takes advantage of those 2 points of weakness for Obama. He leads the President by 9 points with independents at 46-37. And he earns more crossover support, getting 13% of the Democratic vote while only 8% of Republicans are behind Obama.

Further analysis by PPP concludes that the already wide electability gap between Romney and the rest of the GOP field is widening, and that Obama faces an uphill battle against those who are currently undecided:

An extremely wide electability gap has developed between Romney and all the rest of the Republican candidates. Everyone else we tested trails Obama by at least as much as John McCain’s 2008 margin of defeat and in most cases more. Obama’s up 7 on Michele Bachmann at 48-41, 9 against Tim Pawlenty at 48-39, 12 versus Herman Cain at 48-36, and as usual has his largest lead in a match up with Sarah Palin at 53-37.

Here’s an important note on all of this early 2012 polling though: Obama’s numbers are worse than they appear to be on the surface. The vast majority of the undecideds in all of these match ups disapprove of the job Obama’s doing but aren’t committing to a candidate yet while they wait to see how the Republican field shakes out. Here’s an idea of where these various match ups might stand once all voters have made up their minds:

-In the Obama/Romney head to head 21% of undecideds approve of Obama and 61% disapprove. If you allocate them based on their approval/disapprove of Obama, Romney would lead 52-48.

These two polls provide further evidence that Obama is losing hemorrhaging the support of independents and undecided voters, and that they are conversely warming up to Mitt Romney – I suspect this is due to his laser-like focus on the number one issue on people’s minds today: jobs. There is still a lot of time left, but it’s comforting to know that if the election were held today it’s likely Mitt Romney would be the victor.

Obama has never really taken the economy seriously. His actions, such as promising to veto the cut, cap and balance bill (even though it gets 2-1 approval in polls), show that he is out of touch with the American job seeker and is not qualified to lead lead the nation. Each day Romney continues to look more and more presidential as he makes the economy, unemployment and the national debt his singular focus of concern.

Obama is not working. Mitt Romney for President!

Romney Receives CA Endorsements, Leads in all 5 GOP Early States

Mitt Romney stands in front of fence separating the U.S. from Mexico with former CA Assemblyman Tony Strickland (now CA Senator) and CA Senator Mark Wyland in San Diego, CA (8/13/07). Yesterday, Romney received endorsements from a group of CA politicians, including Strickland and Wyland.

From prestigious California endorsements yesterday to strong polling results in Florida, Mitt Romney is making coast-to-coast news.

From The Golden State: Romney Racks Up Endorsements for 2012

Mitt Romney is solidifying his status as front-runner in the GOP presidential nomination race. On Thursday, he picked up the backing of a group of Californians[...]

That includes House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon and Rep. Mary Bono Mack of the state’s contingent in Washington. The group also comprises state Senate GOP Leader Bob Dutton, state Sens. Tony Strickland, Sharon Runner, Bob Huff, Sam Blakeslee and Mark Wyland; and Assemblymen Paul Cook and Jim Silva.

McKeon cited Romney’s strength on economic issues in his endorsement. “President Obama’s policies have failed California and the country,” McKeon said. “Mitt Romney has a proven record of job creation in both the private sector and as a governor.” McKeon also supported Romney in 2008.

(emphasis added)

Bob Dutton also added: “Mitt Romney knows how the economy works and he has the much-needed experience to lead the country out of the economic downturn.”


From The Sunshine State: Romney Leads the Way in Florida (PPP poll)

Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the Republican Presidential nomination in Florida, further cementing his front runner status in the wake of Mike Huckabee’s exit from the race.

Romney is at 27% to 17% for Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, 10% for Herman Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Ron Paul, 4% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.

Romney now has the outright lead in PPP’s most recent polls in all 5 of the key early Republican contests: in addition to the Florida advantage he’s up by 9 in South Carolina, 6 in Iowa, 15 in Nevada, and 23 in New Hampshire.
[...]
Romney’s Florida lead is built on a familiar formula. He’s not winning with the far right voters who constitute a plurality of the Republican electorate, but he’s at least staying competitive with them. Meanwhile he’s dominating the field with moderates (a 36-15 lead over Palin) and with voters who identify themselves as just ‘somewhat conservative’ (a 32-15 advantage over Bachmann.)

While Bachmann’s rising with Florida Republicans, Gingrich has tanked. On our last poll he was tied for the lead with Romney at 18%. Now he finds himself in 5th place and with less than half as much support at 8%. Beyond Gingrich other people who have to be seen as losers on this poll are Huntsman and Pawlenty. Huntsman’s 2% standing is consistent with how he’s polling with pretty much every group of voters except beltway journalists. And Pawlenty’s 4% in Florida matches his 4% in South Carolina- he doesn’t have any resonance yet with GOP voters in the south.

(emphasis added)

Continue reading here.

► Jayde Wyatt

Mitt Romney Continues to Poll Well in South Carolina

A new poll came out on Friday from Public Policy Polling showing Mitt Romney as the only candidate who would keep South Carolina out of President Obama’s reach. We simply cannot risk losing South Carolina’s 9 electoral votes (1 extra thanks to the 2010 census):

Despite Obama’s unpopularity only one of his potential opponents for next year has a clear lead over him in the Palmetto State. That’s Mitt Romney, who’s ahead of Obama by a 50/41 margin. The only other Republican we tested who leads Obama is Jim DeMint, but the home state senator’s margin is a narrow one at 47-44. Beyond that Obama fights Tim Pawlenty to a tie at 42%, leads Newt Gingrich 46-44, is up 43-40 on Herman Cain, and has a 48-43 advantage over Sarah Palin.

South Carolina isn’t the only state where Mitt Romney is the only real threat to Obama’s chances of winning that state. Obama has the same problem in Michigan and Nevada where the former Massachusetts governor is the only person who poses a significant hurdle in capturing that state.

But Mitt’s good poll numbers against Obama aren’t surprising. A few days ago, Public Policy Polling found the former governor of Massachusetts to be unusually strong in the Palmetto state when compared to other Republican 2012 candidates:

And today’s numbers find him up by 9 in South Carolina at 27% to 18% for Palin, 12% each for Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, 9% for Michele Bachmann, 7% for Ron Paul, 4% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.

Romney’s formula for success in South Carolina is the same as in Iowa: dominate with the middle, lead with the center right, and avoid getting completely blown out of the water with the far right. Voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative’ are the largest segment of the Republican electorate in the state at 41% and Palin leads with them at 21% but Romney is at least right there at 20%. With moderates Romney leads by 26 points, getting 41% to Palin’s 15%. And with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters Romney gets 27% to 15% each for Gingrich and Palin.

The facts are clear. Regardless if Mitt Romney is facing other 2012 Republicans or Barack Obama, the people of South Carolina overwhelmingly support Romney.

UPDATE
Here are the results of the latest primary poll in New Hampshire (another blue state Mitt could very well turn red)

Mitt Romney – 41%
Rudy Giuliani – 9%
Ron Paul – 6%
Sarah Palin – 5%
Michele Bachmann – 4%
Other – 21%
Don’t know – 13%

Check out a funny video about President Obama’s re-election strategy below the fold (more…)

The Romney Campaign Releases “In America: Anything is Possible”, Gets Great News in South Carolina and Debates Piers Morgan

scroll to the bottom of this post for part 2 of the Piers Morgan interview with Ann and Mitt…

Right before the commercial break preceding the beginning of the interview with Gov. Romney, Piers Morgan segues from the Anthony Weiner story by saying Gov. Romney might be the cleanest politician in America. Part 1 of the interview with Piers Morgan was tonight and Part 2 is tomorrow. CNN has only released the following online so far, but we’ll post both parts in their entirety as they become available.

I have to say this interview was exciting. Piers Morgan is a tough interview and the more he pushed and prodded Mitt, the better Mitt ended up doing. It must get boring answering the same questions interview after interview and Gov. Romney really seemed engaged and excited to be tested a bit more than he usually is in interviews. I love that Mitt is using the argument that our cartoon so well illustrates a lot more now.

As reported here, PPP is going to release a poll of South Carolinians that shows some very good news for Mitt tomorrow! Interesting that the media continues to say Mitt is such a weak front-runner than shouldn’t even bother competing in Iowa or South Carolina. Tomorrow’s poll will probably show that reality tells a different story than the media has been.

UPDATE – It’s Official… Mitt Romney is up in South Carolina!

Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate for President next year?

Mitt Romney 27%
Sarah Palin 18%
Herman Cain 12%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Michele Bachmann 9%
Ron Paul 7%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Jon Huntsman 2%
Someone else/Undecided 9%

WITHOUT Palin:
Mitt Romney 30%
Herman Cain 15%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Michele Bachmann 13%
Ron Paul 10%
Tim Pawlenty 5%
Jon Huntsman 2%
Someone else/Undecided 11%

Some of Part 2 of Gov. and Ann Romney’s interview with Piers Morgan below the fold: (more…)

POLL: In Arizona, Obama Beats All Republicans but One . . . Romney

Romney beats Obama in Arizona

Romney beats Obama in Arizona

From Public Polling Policy:

Obama trails only one Republican- Mitt Romney- in a hypothetical match up in the state. Romney has a 48-44 advantage against him. This makes Arizona the third state in the last month, along with Nevada and Pennsylvania, where we’ve found Romney as the only Republican who leads Obama. Romney and Mike Huckabee generally post similar numbers against Obama in our national polling but that’s because Huckabee posts much larger leads than Romney against Obama in southern states that the GOP will win regardless of who the party’s nominee is. Romney is clearly proving to be the stronger candidate in important swing states, meaning that for whatever it’s worth he has claim to the ‘electability’ mantle right now.

 

How do they stack up vs. Obama in AZ?

Mitt Romney 48% — Obama 44% (+4)
Obama 46% — Mike Huckabee 44% (-2)
Obama 47% — Newt Gingrich 40% (-7)
Obama 48% — Donald Trump 38% (-10)
Obama 49% — Sarah Palin 38% (-11)

The favorability ratings are equally awesome for Mitt, not so much for Trump:

Mitt Romney: Favorable — 45%, Unfavorable — 37%, Not Sure — 17% (+8)
Mike Huckabee: Favorable — 35%, Unfavorable — 48%, Not Sure — 17% (-13)
Sarah Palin: Favorable — 32%, Unfavorable — 62%, Not Sure — 5% (-30)
Newt Gingrich: Favorable — 26%, Unfavorable — 59%, Not Sure — 15% (-33)
Donald Trump: Favorable –24%, Unfavorable — 66%, Not Sure — 10% (-42)

As more of these polling results are released, I think we’ll see that Romney’s clear advantage over the rest of the potential field is his electability in a general election versus President Obama. Will it be that same appeal he has to independents that proves a hindrance in getting the party’s nomination? Only time will tell.

Mitt Polls Most Favorably Among Undecideds – PPP (UPDATED)

I’ve always taken Public Policy Polling’s (PPP’s) data with a grain of salt as they are perceived as left-leaning.  That said, I think their results have generally been fairly reliable in the past (vs. say, Zogby).  Caveats out of the way, I noticed a very interesting poll result that bodes well for a potential Romney candidacy.

You can read the full write-up here.  They don’t provide raw data or cross tabs, so here’s the summary.  PPP asked voters nationwide who are undecided about their vote in the upcoming congressional election their favorable vs. unfavorable perception of a range of politicians.  The breakdown of the undecided population was 14% Democratic, 21% Republican, and a whopping 65% Independent.   Below is a list of the politicians they asked about, and the resulting Unfavorable rating:

Democrats:

  • Barack Obama – 44% Unfavorable
  • Hillary Clinton – 31%
  • Michelle Obama – 28%
  • Bill Clinton – 39%

Republicans:

  • Sarah Palin – 65% (Highest among all politicians tested)
  • Glenn Beck and Newt Gingrich - 41%
  • Mike Huckabee – 33%
  • Mitt Romney – 25% (Lowest among all politicians tested)

 

Of course, 2012 is still a long way away, but it is clear that 1) Sarah Palin is a double edged sword…great currency within the Republican Party, but extremely challenged outside, and 2) as of now, Mitt has the best chance of winning votes among Independents.

Separately, Mitt is doing a webcast at the Heritage Foundation in about 45 min at 3:45pm EDT.  I don’t know if there are any membership requirements for participating (I am a member), but just in case, try clicking over to Heritage at 3:45 PM and check it out.

UPDATE:

Reader Doug NYC GOP has posted a related article over at Right-o-Sphere which I would highly recommend.  He covers some additional polling data which shows that Mitt is leading the early polling even among the Tea Partiers, which is great news!

Mitt Romney Leads June PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee continue to vie for the lead in the June National GOP nomination poll from Public Policy Polling. The favorable/unfavorable ratings for Mitt looks good, as does his overall polling. As in previous months Sarah Palin’s favorable ratings are the highest of any candidate but continues to lag in polling. What is most clear is that there is no clear front-runner thus far – 2012 could shape out to be a very tight race depending on who actually enters the race.

To view full polling results with cross-tabs click here.

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~Nate G.

HUGE Early Lead in New Hampshire for Mitt Romney

Romney, PPP, poll

No matter who ends up running in in 2012, I will be very surprised if Romney doesn’t win New Hampshire this time around.

—————————————————————————————————-

PPP surveyed 642 New Hampshire Republican primary voters from April 17th to 18th: If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum who would you vote for?

39% Mitt Romney
13 Sarah Palin
11 Newt Gingrich
11 Mike Huckabee
07 Ron Paul
03 Tim Pawlenty
01 Haley Barbour
01 Rick Santorum
13 Undecided

Poll Source: Public Policy Polling, April 21, 2010 (PDF Press Release)

~Nate G.

(H/T Frank)