In spite of the evidence that Jason posted of Brownback’s masses, it is Romney that leads in Michagan according to a new ARG poll:

39% Romney
13% Giuliani
12% F Thompson
9% McCain
4% Huckabee

Well that surge, too, but I was meaning the continuing Romney surge in Iowa. Strategic Vision has new numbers showing Romney doubling up his competition.

Republicans
Romney 31 (+8 vs. last poll June 22-24)
Thompson 15 (-2)
Giuliani 13 (-1)
McCain 8 (-2)
Huckabee 8 (+3)
Undecided 13 (+2)

OK, so I know Captain Ed doesn’t talk like that on his blog, but I thought it’d be fun anyway. Captain Ed does talk like this, though (quoting Gallup):

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has posted modest gains over the last two weeks, both in his favorable rating and in his positioning in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. One presumption is that Romney’s gains reflect the visibility that followed his win in the Iowa Republican Party straw poll last weekend, although data in the new Gallup Poll show that only a third of Republicans nationwide are directly aware that Romney won this unofficial contest.

“In the latest survey by the Reno Gazette-Journal, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gained 24 points to capture the lead from former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani,” reports KRNV-TV out of Reno. Here are the results:

Republicans:
Romney 28 (+24 vs. 3/12 poll)
Thompson 18 (n/a)
Giuliani 18 (-20)
McCain 8 (-10)
Gingrich 4 (-9)
Huckabee 2 (n/a)

That makes 3 out of the first 6 states that Romney has a lead in right now (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. The other three are South Carolina, Florida, and Wyoming). No word of any polls out in Wyoming, but Romney has made steady progress in both South Carolina (within 5% of the lead) and Florida (+2 in the last two Rasmussen polls).

Rich Lowry gives the heads up on a new South Carolina poll showing Romney making a move there.

Public Policy Polling Republican South Carolina Primary
Thompson – 22%
Giuliani – 18%
Romney – 17%
McCain – 11%
Huckabee – 7%
Brownback – 3%
Paul – 2%

Survey was done August 13 of 749 likely primary voters, and has an MoE of 3.6%.

I can’t vouch for the methods and accuracy of the poll, but it seems South Carlolinians didn’t realize they weren’t supposed to pay any attention to Iowa Straw Poll headlines. Also, Romney was ticking up a bit nationally prior to the straw poll.

For those not following the South Carolina polls (and I can’t blame you for that), Romney’s numbers have generally followed his national numbers, hovering around 10% on average. RCP had his average at 7.3% in South Carolina. This new poll shows a marked improvement and possibly a sign of good things to come. This also follows a national trend showing that has Romney ticking upward. The last three polls (Rasmussen, Quinipiac, and ARG) show Romney surging consistently if not spectacularly.

Justin has been the best at explaining all the horserace stuff and nuts and bolts of politicing, but it seems like Romney’s old school strategy is working. South Carolina, Florida, and other states that other Republican candidates have been banking on look like Iowa and New Hampshire of a couple of months ago. Now, with the early winning, consistently spectacular debate performances, and grassroots organization, Romney is poised to take the lead in those states. Also, for all the grief that pundits gave Romney for his investment in Ames (even with a solid win), it too seems to be paying off, as Lowry seems to have noted.

Romney continues to surge in NH:

CNN/WMUR/UNH poll.
Romney: 33
Giuliani: 18
F. Thompson: 13
McCain: 12

Also, Marc Ambinder does an in-depth look at Romney’s media team and the competition he has fostered.

Via Jonathan Martin at the Politico:

Per ARG:

Romney: 23
Giuliani: 21
McCain: 16
F. Thompson: 16
Undecided: 15

Not to get too excited or anything, but that makes 5 states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and Utah) where Romney is leading.

Wow. I’ve looked over the details of the poll and nothing strikes me as completely out of the ordinary. Hat tip to the Mitt Report

A poll released today by Datamar Inc., shows Former Governor from Massachusetts, Mitt Romney in the lead with 32.3%, in the California Presidential primary. Former Mayor of New York, Rudi Giuliani, is in second place with 14.7%. Congressman Duncan Hunter jumps to third place with 11% and U.S. Senator from Arizona, John McCain is fourth with 5.4%. Findings are based on a June 6 – 11, 2007 survey of California voters using Datamar’s proprietary targeted-registrationbased- sampling (TRBS)* method.

OK. Then. Off to the races we go!

http://www.datamar.net/pdf/CRPP061407.pdf

Time’s Joe Klein writes today about how “disappointing” Romney’s campaign is:

But there isn’t the slightest hint of courage or conviction in his stump act. It’s a candidacy for the era before 2001, before things got serious. And his success or failure will be a reflection of how serious the electorate is in 2008.

Apparently Klein admits the unseriousness (if that’s a word) of a particular presidential era prior to 2001. Now, however, we need a “serious” candidate – someone dark, brooding, and most of all angry. This isn’t the time for someone with optimism and a sense of humor. We need someone who will agitate and irritate, yell and scream, and generally follow the Al Sharpton/Howard Dean school of politics. No, Klein, I think the American people have rejected that type of candidate again and again – even in the Democratic party.

But what about Romney’s courage and conviction? It’s certainly a hard thing to quantify and is a qualitative assessment. So, I would ask, what do the people who are seeing him think? About the only indicators I know of are polls and endorsements. As people have become acquainted with Romney his poll numbers have increased. Romney also is not lacking for endorsements (although always willing to accept more). So what is it that Klein sees that so many others do not? He faults Romney for being too light on substance and heavy on style, making a jab at Romney audiences: “And because he doesn’t dwell on [policy], his audiences don’t.” But it’s hard to see how that is so when Romney has been so forthcoming on policy proposals (the most recent found here on MMM). Such criticism is not founded on fact, but on fantasy.

Jonathan Martin reports another poll showing a statistical tie in Iowa.