Yes, of course it is very early to place huge stock in such polls, but we can’t help but be drawn to any early indication of what might possibly happen in 2012. With that in mind I present the results of the Public Policy Polling’s survey of Florida Republican primary voters:

If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?
52% Mitt Romney
21% Mike Huckabee
18% Sarah Palin
14% Undecided

I don’t think I need to remind our readers how important of state Florida in the primary schedules with it’s 57 winner-takes-all delegates. Cross-tabs from the survey show that results are basically the same whether the polled Republicans were of conservative, moderate, or liberal ideology.

Not to be excluded from the report is the great news that Romney also holds large lead in an identical poll Colorado. This one isn’t quite headline news as Romney overwhelmingly won Colorado in the 2008 primary caucus. The results for Colorado PPP poll:

Colorado:
44% Mitt Romney
25% Sarah Palin
17% Mike Huckabee
14% Undecided

For full results of the Florida and Colorado polls, including cross-tabs, click here.

Other recent polls:
PPP Texas:
32% Mitt Romney
29% Mike Huckabee
23% Sarah Palin
15% Undecided

PPP New Mexico:
33% Mitt Romney
32% Sarah Palin
18% Mike Huckabee
17% Undecided

For full results of the Feb. 26 Texas and New Mexico polls, including cross-tabs, click here.

Magellan Strategies California,
31% Romney
18% Palin
13% Huckabee
12% Gingrich
08% Paul
03% Other
03% Pawlenty
12% Undecided

For full results of the March 4 California poll, including cross-tabs, click here.

Mitt ‘12!

~Nate Gunderson

(HT to BOSMAN, one of our readers for the story.)

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Recent polling from Magellan Strategies indicates that both Governor Mitt Romney and Meg Whitman , former CEO of eBay.com, are in early pole position for their relative offices, or potential office I should say in the case of Governor Romney. California has a closed primary, meaning only registered Republicans can vote in the primary. As such the Magellan poll only included those who are registered GOP.

California is rich with GOP delegates with approx. 170 that get to vote in the RNC convention. Of those McCain received 158 delegates in the 2008 primary, while Romney earned 12, with 42% of the vote and 35%, respectively.

The results for Magellan’s early 2012 Presidential preference poll:

31% Romney
18% Palin
13% Huckabee
12% Gingrich
08% Paul
03% Other
03% Pawlenty
12% Undecided

That is a very healthy margin for Romney, and there could very well be similar results in February 2012, bringing a vast majority of those 170 delegates into Romney’s camp. Interesting enough the results included cross-tabs which showed the results among social conservatives to be very similar to those of the state-wide poll: 30% Romney ; 20% Palin ; 17% Huckabee. This disputes claims that Romney can’t do well among SoCons, and being a strong SoCon myself I find great satisfaction in that.

Now for the 2010 GOP Gubernatorial nominee poll results:

63% Meg Whitman !!!
12% Steve Poizner
04% Other
21% Undecided

Much could happen before the June 8 primary elections, but I think Whitman is almost a definite winner with nearly 2/3 of the entire vote. Meg Whitman as Governor would be an extraordinary benefit to the State of California with her extensive economic expertise as a business leader, but I can’t overlook the fact that it will also be a huge boon to Romney with Whitman in the Governorship.

Good Luck Whitman 2010 and Go Mitt 2012!!

~Nate Gunderson

Results of the full survey found here. HT GOP12.com

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Recently the National Journal queried “political insiders” as to whom they thought would win the GOP nomination in 2012. Among them Mitt Romney was the overwhelming favorite. Aaronius reported on it here. A smaller poll was also done with not “insiders” but political bloggers with similar results.

Rank the top 5 candidates, 1 through 5, in terms of who you think is most likely to capture the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Results:

I transposed the methodology from the insiders poll to match this poll:*METHODOLOGY: 18 right-leaning bloggers participated. In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote 4 points, and so on. The Insiders Index reflects the percentage of points that each contender received out of the maximum possible. For example, Mitt Romney scored an Index rating of 66, meaning he received 66 percent of the possible 90 points, the number he would have had if all 18 participants had ranked him first.

List of the right leaning bloggers: Dan McLaughlin, Baseball Crank; Bob Parks, Black And Right; Bookworm, Bookworm Room; D.S. Hube, The Colossus Of Rhodey; Bruce Carroll Jr., GayPatriot; Skip Murphy, GraniteGrok; Robert Miller, JoshuaPundit; Soren Dayton, The Next Right; Jon Henke, The Next Right; James Joyner, Outside The Beltway; Walter Olson, Overlawyered; Steven Taylor, PoliBlog; Debbie Hamilton, Right Truth; John Hawkins, Right Wing News; David Gerstman, Soccer Dad; Martin Solomon, Solomonia; David Kopel, The Volokh Conspiracy; Susan Duclos, Wake Up America

A group of left wing Democrats participated in a small survey as well:
Who would be the Republicans’ strongest presidential nominee in 2012?

Nice know that the Politicos revere Mitt Romney as the most likely to win the GOP nomination and the strongest candidate to face Obama as well.

~Nate Gunderson

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This interactive graph demonstrates the continual slide in President Obama’s approval ratings since taking office in January. I like this graph from Real Clear Politics because it averages all of the major recent polls to provide data that is less likely to be skewed than that from a single source.

The big question? When are the black and red lines going to touch? The percentages as of today are 49.0% approval with 45.1% disapproval. That is only a 3.9% percent gap, far different from the 43.3% gap Obama enjoyed when he took office!

So let’s hear your guesses. When are the lines going to touch? What are the reasons for the big slide? I’ve got some ideas.

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Hurry on over to BillOreilly.com and show your support for this nation’s most competent, qualified leader: Mitt Romney. Feel free to send this post to your friends by clicking the ‘email’ button below. Let’s show Mitt some love!

Be sure to share this post on your Facebook or Twitter, as well.

UPDATE: Bill O’Reilly just announced that the results will be revealed on during Monday’s show should it appears we have the weekend to keep trying to get others to vote.

UPDATE 2: Bill O’Reilly didn’t even mention the poll during Monday’s show and the poll can still be voted in at http://www.billoreilly.com

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We have several Romney news items to catch up on which I’ll encapsulate into this post. First, via the monthly PAC newsletter, we see that Mitt Romney made trips to help fellow GOP-ers in ten states, including Virginia and New Jersey for the newly elected Governors Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie, respectively. Other state visited by Governor Romney in October include: California, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin. This rigorous October schedule follows an equally busy schedule had in September. So much for a peaceful retirement and riding off into the sunset. Remember that these travels and endorsements that help keep Romney in the forefront of potential 2012 candidates are made possible by your contributions to the Free and Strong America PAC.

Our other news is likely to make you want to contribute to the link above as well: Mike Huckabee is seen making headway and leading in most recent polls for the GOP 2012 nomination. The most recent was released today by USA Today/Gallup where Huckabee edged Romney by Republican voters when asked which possible 2012 contenders they would seriously consider supporting. The graph below has the results.

Other recent polls and power rankings:

• After several months atop The Fix’s Rankings, Romney slips to third behind Palin and Pawlenty, and just ahead of Huckabee in 4th.
• Huckabee edges Romney by 1 point in recent polls by Public Policy Polling (PPP)
• a mid-October poll by Rasmussen had these results: Huckabee 29%, Romney 24%, Palin 18%

It would be foolish to place a lot of stock in these numbers so far out, but it is of interest at least to see where candidates stand today. Huckabee made a funny and fitting statement when asked about his thoughts on the Gallup poll: “It’s like speculating who’s going to be the best actor next year when we don’t even know what the movies are.” If Huckabee does enter the 2012 race it may be later than most because he want to continue his benefit from the 1.5 million viewers on his FOX talk show as long as possible. The minute he announces any sort of campaign he would have to leave the program. Romney on the other hand continues to keep a low public profile while interjecting only on key issues and continuing to build support for and from GOPers all across the nation. Be sure to read Thomas Alan’s post called And This is How You Build a Narrative.

~Nate Gunderson

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This is not a MittRomneyCentral.com poll. It is actually initiated and posted at the Examiner.com in an article about a recent Rasmussen report showing Romney trailing 5% behind Huckabee in national polls.

In this poll Romney is in 3rd at this point, 261 votes behind the leader, Huckabee. Let’s vote Romney up!

Good luck. Be sure to use the Social Networking bar below to share this with your friends on Facebook and Twitter.

~Nate Gunderson

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Rasmussen published a GOP presidential nomination poll yesterday with Governor Mike Huckabee in the lead (29%), Romney behind 5% in second (24%). with Palin in a more distant third (17%). This is indeed good news for Mike Huckabee and fans, but I would caution them, and anyone else, not to become too invested in polls like this so far out. Much can and will change. And yes I would be saying the same thing even if Romney were in the top spot in the poll right now. The only thing one gains from winning polls this early in the game is a big target on their back and negative publicity from opposing parties or factions.

In early 2006 Rasmussen did a similar poll for the 2008 GOP nomination. The results: Rudy 24%, Condi Rice 18%, and McCain at 17%. Well, we all know who ended up winning. But in the interim Rudy, McCain, Romney and Huckabee all took turns leading in the national polls. Two of those were not even on the radar in the 2006 poll (Romney and Huckabee). It’s possible that Pawlenty, and perhaps even Santorum, could make such a run and we’ll be looking at an entirely different field in 2011. I recall that Romney was at single digits for all of 2006 and the early part of 2007, and was constantly being poked-fun at as “the single digit candidate”. For that reason I caution all to watch out if Pawlenty’s campaign gains traction. I still believe Romney has the advantage at this point, but the competitors are not as far behind as they were before.

There are many other tangibles and intangibles that factor into how well a candidate is preparing for a distant election besides the national polls: PAC fundraising performance, media appearances, Op-Eds, speeches, authoring books, PAC organization strength, campaigning for and making alliances with fellow candidates for GOP offices, etc. Having a TV show with millions of weekly viewers, plus a radio show, is certainly helping in Huckabee’s case, as is evident from the poll. They are an advantageous luxury the others won’t be able to have. The shows I’m sure are a great net positive, but there are some minor downsides as well: less free time to raise funds for the PAC and campaign on the behalf of others.

Congrats to Huckabee, the victor of the day.

The results from Rasmussen:

2012: GOP Primary Election
Huckabee	29%
Romney	24%
Palin	18%
Gingrich	14%
Pawlenty	4%
Some other candidate	6%
Not sure	7%

These numbers reflect an improvement for Huckabee since July when the three candidates were virtually even. Huckabee’s gain appears to be Palin’s loss as Romney’s support has barely changed.

The numbers for Huckabee and Romney look even stronger when GOP voters were asked which candidate they would least like to see get the nomination. Pawlenty came on top in that category with 28%. Palin was second at 21% while 20% named Gingrich. Romney and Huckabee were in the single digits with 9% and 8% respectively.

Huckabee and Romney are viewed favorably by 78% of Republican voters, Palin by 75%. Gingrich earns favorably reviews from 69% while Pawlenty is less well known and gets a positive assessment from 45% of Republicans.

…

Republican voters are very confident their nominee could be the next President of the United States. Eighty-one percent (81%) of the GOP faithful say that it’s at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will defeat Barack Obama in 2012. Fifty percent (50%) say it’s Very Likely.

~Nate Gunderson

UPDATE: Some interesting head-to-head match-ups plus favorables/unfavorables are posted at Race42012.com.

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If you haven’t voted yet, do so on the left sidebar. (If you’re reading this at PlanetRomney.org you need to click on the link above to actually come to TheMittBlog.com to vote in the poll.)

I must say that I am quite surprised with the results of the poll so far. I know that a lot of Romney supporters were eager to have Romney on the ticket, but I didn’t realize it would be a deal-breaker for so many. Granted the sampling is not that large, but there already seems to be a pattern.

If the results were weighted +2 for ‘ecstatic’ to -2 for ‘Mac just lost my vote’, we would have a total of 41 positive points and 43 negative points for a net -2. (note: 60 total votes so far)

I believe (and hope) that most of those who have written off McCain because of his veep pick will come around. I think as we start seeing a lot more of Obama and his dangerous platforms that most will return.

Some post-primary polling in Utah comes to mind. I recall reports immediately after Romney dropped out of the primaries that showed McCain polling extremely low in Utah which was hugely supportive of Romney. The result in fact showed him just a fraction higher than Obama with most of the crowd in the ‘undecided’ category. Fortunately, primary bitterness has worn off in Utah and clearer heads are prevailing. The polls for Utah now show McCain up 62% to 23%, one of the largest pro-McCain gaps in the country.

Hopefully we’ll see some more of that as November nears.

~Nate Gunderson

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Please participate in the poll on the left sidebar to show what you think about Sarah Palin being selected as McCain’s VP.

Click here for “All you need to know about Sarah Palin”

I have a number of thoughts on Palin. After initial thoughts I have very quickly come to believe that this is a brilliant pick by team McCain. Here are some reasons why people will be willing to accept her as VP:

Pros

• very conservative governor with all the right stances on issues
• has an excellent record as a reformist
• being from AK and wanting to drill in ANWR makes her a strong voice for energy independence, which will be a hot issue the election round
• has a son in the military – and is a life-long member of the NRA
• has five children including a very young son with Downs Syndrome, attractive to those with strong family values
• frequently described as ‘very down to earth’ and not a Washington insider
• last, and probably most important, she is not only acceptable to both parties of the Huckabee/Romney feud, but also to Hillary supporters thanks to the Clinton/Obama feud.

In short, she does no harm to the ticket, but in fact brings in other would-be fence-sitters had someone else been chosen.

Cons

• relatively unknown
• though able to fulfill the roll of VP, I’m not confident in her ability to step into the roll of Commander in Chief in a moments notice should the need arise
• unsure of how she will hold up in debate versus Biden, though she does have the advantage of her being right and him being wrong
• currently under investigation for alleged abuse of power for helping to get her ex-brother-in-law fired

I think the pros seriously out weigh the cons in this case. I do have one rambling thought I’d like to express concerning this pick. I can’t help thinking that her being a woman was a major factor in her being selected (brings in huge crowds of Hillary supporters). Being a woman is neither a qualification, nor a disqualification. Identity politics has won the day. If this is true it is akin to voting for (or against) Obama because he is black, or voting for Romney solely because he is Mormon. One’s identity is not a qualification! I think Romney and Pawlenty are better qualified, but Palin (my third pick) is the clearly the smarter pick if you want to win the election. Well I do want win the election because of the serious threat of an Obama presidency.

That said I feel that I can wholeheartedly support the Republican 2008 ticket of McCain/Palin.

BTW, I stole the image from Race42008.com where there is a big discussion going on about the pick. Kavon says “Best. Vice. Presidential. Pick. Ever.” Also of interest at Race42008.com is a post from Romney supporter Jason Bonham “Gov. Palin: Awesome Choice, But Still a Bet”

~Nate Gunderson

Other news about the Palin Pick:
Marc Ambinder (includes text from Palin’s speech)
Hugh Hewitt talks about “An Extraordinary Choice”
Michelle Malkin - Palin for America: A true conservative: “She knows when to stand up and doesn’t let anyone tell her to sit down”

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