A well-known bit of history:  Republicans tend to nominate the guy that came close to winning in the prior election.  Come 2012, that man will be Romney.

In a well-written article by Richard Albert at The Hill, the historical trends of Republican nominations are reviewed, and some very interesting things are discussed.  He begins by pointing out that Palin and Pawlenty have done well generating media buzz by announcing the printing of a book and the formation of a PAC, respectively. (Be it known that Romney has a book, is releasing another book, and formed a PAC long ago.)  Richard goes further in depth by pointing out that despite strategic moves by other Republican nominee hopefuls, Romney has history on his side:

Compelling though they may be as prospective candidates, Palin and Pawlenty still lag far behind the leader in the race to carry the Republican banner in the next presidential election: Mitt Romney. But Romney is ahead of the pack thanks largely to a prominent blemish on his otherwise sterling resume: He lost the nomination in 2008.

It is a peculiar fact of modern political history that past failure in the Republican primaries is often an indication of future success. Unlike the Democratic Party, which often confers the nomination upon first-time candidates — think, for example, of Walter Mondale in 1984, Michael Dukakis in 1988, Bill Clinton in 1992, John Kerry in 2004 and of course Barack Obama in 2008 — the Republican Party has a record of nominating battle-tested candidates who did not win the race their first time around the bend.

Consider the list of Republican presidential nominees since 1980. Of the five nominees, four had previously lost the nomination, often to a prior loser. The most recent nominee, McCain, lost to Bush in 2000. Bob Dole, the victor in 1996, was defeated in 1988 by George H.W. Bush, who had lost in 1980 to Ronald Reagan, who had himself tasted defeat in 1976 at the hands of Gerald Ford.

This is more than simple coincidence. Losing candidates win their second time around (or in Dole’s case, his third) precisely because they never stop campaigning. Of course, they do not run an overt or visible campaign but instead a covert campaign narrowly targeted to party leaders and opinion shapers.

Romney has been doing just that, choosing wisely not to rely only on the cycle of history to win the nomination. Just after bowing out of the 2008 Republican race, Romney founded a political action committee, Free and Strong America, that has allowed him to raise money at a rapid pace.

That has allowed Romney to collect IOUs in crucial primary and caucus states at an even faster clip. He has moreover kept intact the core of his campaign staff, and it stands at the ready to deploy at his call.

When viewed alongside his frequent public appearances on television and in print, and his attendance at private conservative gatherings, it should come as no surprise that recent polls show Romney maintaining an edge over other prospective candidates, including Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal and both Palin and Pawlenty.

All of this paints a promising portrait of Romney’s prospects for 2012. It remains to be seen whether he will actually run. But given what we know about history —namely, that it tends to repeat itself — two things are more likely than not: first, that Romney will run, and second, that he will win the Republican nomination.

Although I don’t believe that merely being ‘the next in line’ is by any means a legitimate credential, I would also argue that Romney is doing all the right things to beef his credentials. I can’t help but think that ever since Romney bowed out in early 2008, he’s been humming the lyrics of the old Rolling Stone’s cover, ‘Time is on my side’, knowing that as long as he maintains his presence, and continues to raise money and appeal as he has been, his nomination, as history would predict, is quite likely.

Here are those lyrics:

Time is On My Side, America.

Time is on my side, yes it is
Time is on my side, yes it is

Now you always say
That you want to be free
But you’ll come running back (said you would baby)
You’ll come running back (I said so many times before)
You’ll come running back to me

Go ahead, go ahead and light up the town
And baby, do everything your heart desires
Remember, Ill always be around
And I know, I know
Like I told you so many times before
You’re gonna come back, baby
cause I know
You’re gonna come back knocking
Yeah, knocking right on my door
Yes, yes!