Romney: Attracting the Undecided & Inspiring the Base

Three days ago, The New York Times posted Romney’s Potential Running Mates. The list provides a quick reference to those the media considers on the “short list.”

From time to time, MittRomneyCentral.com publishes the opinions of guests — these views are theirs alone. Following is an opinion of guest Troy Tate of Orange County, California.

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Troy Tate

This is the most important election in my lifetime. We have a community activist/agitator (Obama) in the Oval Office, whose overall objectives are to amass power and to spread the wealth so he can create a permanent underclass dependent on government. Four more years will likely tip the balance and forge an era of progressive/liberal rule. Obama has led America down the road to mediocrity and despair at home and to weakness and ambivalence abroad. But Obama’s got the media, Hollywood and an increasingly dependent group of Americans pulling for him. On the other hand, we have a challenger who can and will turn it around and keep us from falling off a cliff—Romney.

What does Romney do to win? Romney needs to fire up his base, including tea party conservatives, to give their all to his campaign at the grassroots level. Romney also needs to win over the hearts of the undecided voters who either voted for Obama in 2008 or didn’t vote at all. This undecided group of voters either might reluctantly vote for Obama or not vote at all in November. Yes, these voters may be dissatisfied with what’s happening with the government deficits, the economy, immigration and America’s loss of power and influence in the world but they don’t want to take a chance on another candidate who may make things worse. They’re not sure they can trust the challenger any more than they trust the incumbent.

How does Romney persuade these “swing voters” to go his direction? How does he earn their trust? Telling them what policies he will implement when he becomes President will not move the needle. Romney moves the needle when he connects with their hearts and helps them to see what’s at stake with our country, our freedoms, our children’s futures and our security as a sovereign nation. Romney wins them over when he shares from his core what he believes and why he believes it and passionately articulates his overall vision for America. He must focus on his “why”—why he is running and why his winning will matter a lot in their lives and the lives of their loved ones. Conservative principles articulately and passionately shared (especially on fiscal and economic issues) will win over the hearts of those teetering on the fence.

When Romney connects passionately with these voters and they feel his commitment, his beliefs and his vision, they will listen to him share what he will do and how he will do it. If Romney focuses on the policies he will implement without first connecting with their hearts, it will be much more difficult to sway these “on the fence” voters.

So this is what I would tell Governor Romney if we could talk over the phone or face to face about how to win this election:

Governor Romney, people are moved to trust you as a leader when you share those core beliefs, values and principles that are diametrically opposed to those of Obama. People are moved when the importance of what you are saying is not just in the words you select but in your voice, in your eyes and face, and in your gestures. People are moved when you speak from the heart and articulate conservative positions that survive any attacks because they are tied to timeless truths and core principles articulated in the Declaration of Independence. When these undecided voters truly start to sense what is at stake as they hear you describe it and start to feel that you are an advocate of values they hold dear, they will be motivated to support you. That’s what Reagan did so well to beat an incumbent. You can too.

Here’s my second and final suggestion to you, Governor Romney. Pick a running mate who not only is brilliant but also can clearly, effectively and passionately articulate your core beliefs, values and principles about American exceptionalism, limited government, religious freedom and free enterprise. I’ve considered those people who purportedly are on your short list and one stands strongly above the rest. Frankly, this potential running mate is inspiring regardless of the issue he addresses and regardless of whether he speaks contemporaneously at a rally, gives prepared remarks on the Senate floor, or responds to tough questions from the media. That individual is Marco Rubio.

If you haven’t done so already, listen on YouTube to Rubio recently being interviewed by Jon Stewart on the Daily Show. Consider how clearly, boldly and persuasively Rubio articulates conservative principles and positions without making personal attacks or relying on meaningless platitudes. Jon Stewart was left almost speechless because he couldn’t catch Rubio in any of the snares he set up, including the statistics to support his claim that Rubio and his Senate Republican colleagues were the worst obstructionists ever. When Rubio explained why they did what they did, all the air came out of Stewart’s obstructionist charge. Jon couldn’t knock down any of Rubio’s arguments with logic, facts or even emotion. You will probably conclude as I have how Rubio as a running mate can be a critical asset to your winning the Presidency.

Choose Rubio, Governor Romney. Portman and Pawlenty certainly can fill important positions in your administration. Christie and McDonnell can continue to lead out at the state level as Governors of New Jersey and Virginia. Ryan can help us tremendously in the House of Representatives, but Rubio is the one who will fire up your base and who will motivate all those independent swing voters, including Hispanics and other minorities, to vote for your ticket. With America’s future and our prosperity and freedoms literally hanging in the balance, don’t choose a “competent” running mate that doesn’t know how to connect with and inspire the base and the undecided voters. Rubio will do that for you and with you. Besides, he’d make a great Vice President.

Troy L Tate, President of Torque Solutions LLC, is the author of The DNA of Successful Leaders: Tapping Your Natural Power to Win Friends and Influence Others and the creator of the audio program: The Missing Step: Complete Directions When Your Career Has Reached a Critical Crossroad. Troy is the father of four daughters and resides in Laguna Niguel, California with his wife and youngest daughter.

An Analysis of Gay Marriage by the Numbers – A Look at the Swing States

***Please note that the following article is solely the opinion of the author and does not speak for or represent Mitt Romney or the Romney campaign.

President Obama’s announcement last week that he “supports gay marriage” helped provide a clear contrast between Obama and Romney and will almost certainly have a major impact on the elections in November.

History has shown that the issue of gay marriage is a powerful vote mover. As Politico reported last week

For all the signs of increased tolerance and changing mores, there’s one undeniable fact: A full embrace of gay rights has never been a winner in the political arena.

Fifteen years of ballot measures in more than 30 states from coast-to-coast show an issue that has been rejected nearly every time it’s gone before the voters — often by large margins.

As many political observers have noted, Obama’s announcement moves the electoral map more in the favor of Mitt Romney.  In particular, Obama’s move helps tilt “6 or 7 key swing states” toward the Romney camp. These states are namely North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio.

In North Carolina voters overwhelmingly supported a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in the state just one week ago. In another crucial swing state, Florida, a similar ban was passed in 2008. Ohio, Michigan and Missouri also passed similar bans in 2004. Virginia, Colorado and Wisconsin passed bans in 2006 and Arizona in 2008.

A lot has been said lately about the shifting support for gay marriage over the last decade. Many point to a recent poll saying that a slim majority of Americans now support gay marriage. However, in regard to polls, keep in mind two key facts. #1) During the upcoming election, the swing states matter a lot more than the national average. And the swing states are showing a strong inclination away from same sex marriage. And #2) Aaron Blake of the Washington Post recently released this analysis about polls on gay marriage:

Does a majority of the country really support gay marriage?

As is often true in polling, it depends on how you ask the question.

A Gallup poll last week showed that 51 percent of Americans support gay marriage, but a CBS News/New York Times poll out today shows that only 38 percent support it.

The difference: Gallup gave voters just two options — support or oppose — while the CBS/NYT poll added a third, civil unions.

When given that third choice, polls show that it draws significantly from both the pro-gay marriage and anti-gay marriage camps, but in the end, overall support for gay marriage drops well below a majority.

Notably, then, the civil unions choice also appears to be drawing some support from gay marriage opponents — a reflection that there is plenty of support (62 percent) for some kind of legal recognition of gay couples.

For Obama, a candidate who has been angling to the political center, his announcement represents a hard turn to the political left. In my humble opinion, I think it is going to be too far left for most people – an overstep where Obama got in “a little over his skis.”

Take for example, the new shirts for sale on Barack Obama’s website. Some of the slogans on the shirts read, ”My two moms support Obama” or “My two dads support Obama.” 

These are not center-of-the-road phrases. I don’t think these kinds of phrases would be seen in virtually any election in the US, even predominantly democratic ones.

Another shirt says “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell Repealed 12/22/10.” I am not sure that is a slogan you want to publicize very broadly since most in the military were opposed to repealing DADT

While there is little doubt that Obama’s newfound support for gay marriage will energize the LGBT community as never before, it will also energize the even larger group of social and religious conservatives. In the swing states and among America’s silent majority, the results of Obama’s announcement will tip the scales of the election more toward Mitt Romney. 

As a side note, I think it is important to remember that even though gay marriage has emerged as a big issue in the upcoming election, Romney still plans to focus primarily on the economy and jobs as his main message to voters. 

Gallup Poll: More Consider Voting for ROMNEY Than Obama or Perry

We had to share the latest polling results from Gallup today!

More Voters Considering Romney Than Obama, Perry

Gallup Poll – September 22, 2011

PRINCETON, NJ — More registered voters say they would definitely vote for Mitt Romney or might consider doing so (62%) than say the same about his two main rivals in the 2012 presidential election, Democrat Barack Obama (54%) and Republican Rick Perry (53%).
[...]
Romney’s advantage in broader voter consideration over Perry and Obama results partly from his greater appeal to independent voters — 70% say they would definitely vote for him or consider doing so, compared with 60% for Perry and 45% for Obama. Romney also receives greater consideration from Republican and Democratic voters than does Perry, and matches the 90% party loyalty Obama gets from his party’s supporters.

The greater consideration Romney gets among registered voters speaks to his potential in the 2012 election, something that has not necessarily been translated to performance yet. Romney is essentially tied with Obama in the latest head-to-head matchup for the general election, and currently trails Perry in Republicans’ current preferences for the party’s presidential nominee. However, the same poll finds Republicans saying they are more willing to trade agreement on the issues for electability when choosing their party’s presidential nominee, something that could work to Romney’s advantage given that he currently fares slightly better than Perry in a head-to-head matchup versus Obama.

Voter Consideration for Romney Growing, Flat for Obama

The 62% of voters who are considering voting for Romney is up significantly from the 48% who said so when Gallup asked a similar question in April. At that time, 54% of registered voters said they would definitely vote for Obama or consider doing so, the same percentage as now. Perry, who did not officially enter the race until August, was not included in the April poll.

Despite his lower April numbers, Romney still fared as well as or better than the other leading Republican contenders at that time, including Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee — both of whom declined to run — and Sarah Palin, who has not yet made an official announcement on a 2012 presidential candidacy.

Implications

At the moment, Romney has a greater reservoir of potential voter support than does either of his main rivals for the presidency. To prevail, Romney must convert as much of that potential support as possible to actual support. Should he defeat Perry for the nomination, his level of actual support among Republican voters should increase to levels approaching those Obama currently enjoys among Democratic voters. [...]

Thus, a key to gauging candidate electability and ultimately the winner of the 2012 election will be the candidate’s appeal to independent voters. Currently, Romney seems to have an edge in three respects: the greatest number of independent voters would definitely vote for him or consider voting for him; he leads Obama among independent voters in a head-to-head matchup; and he fares slightly better among independent voters in a head-to-head matchup with Obama than does Perry.

(emphasis, image added)

► Jayde Wyatt

Romney vs Obama: Mitt on Top in Latest Zogby Poll


ROMNEY CLEANS OBAMA’S CLOCK — 44% to 38%

Romney vs Obama

Obama’s Job approval is freefalling:

“President Barack Obama’s job approval rating has dropped to the lowest point of his Presidency at 39%, and in potential match-ups with Republicans in 2012, he trails Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush and Newt Gingrich and is just one point ahead of Sarah Palin.”

How well does Mitt Romney do among Independents in a hypothetical match up against Obama?

“Among independents, match-ups between Obama and Republicans Romney, Gingrich, Palin and Bush are very close. Versus all of these hypothetical opponents except Bloomberg, Obama draws between 36% and 39% of independents. He beats Bloomberg among independents, 26%-12%, but 49% of independents would choose neither. Obama beats Trump with independents, 36%-29%.”

Mitt Romney also performs well among Republicans in a hypothetical match against Obama.

“Among Republicans, Gingrich leads with 79%, followed by Romney 77% and Palin 72%.  One-half of Republicans would choose Trump over Obama, but 43% want neither. Bloomberg would get only 19% of Republicans, with 74% not wanting either the New York City mayor or Obama.”

The reason why Mitt Romney is will be a formidable opponent for Republicans in the primaries and for Obama in the general election in 2012 is that he appeals to more than just his base.  Not only do Republicans like Romney but Independents do too.

Go Mitt 2012!!

~ Jared A.

Zogby: Even With Third Party Factored In, Mitt Romney Preferred over Obama




A new Zogby poll shows voters prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama and Michael Bloomberg in a hypothetical three-way race. Independent voters, small business owners, voters who pay federal income taxes, and Tea Party voters strongly prefer Romney.

Today from NewsMax.com:

Washington, D.C. — If the 2012 presidential election were held today, and the race was between Democrat President Barack Obama, Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg running as an independent, Romney would prevail. This according to a recent poll conducted August 20-23 by Zogby International of 2,062 likely voters.

The poll asked:

If the election for President in 2012 were held today and the candidates were President Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney running as the Republican nominee, and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg running as an Independent, for whom would you vote?

Romney would win the election with 42 percent of the vote, barely edging out President Obama, who would garner 41 percent of the vote. Bloomberg would receive 6 percent of the vote.

Among independent voters, 40 percent would choose Romney and 30 percent would vote for Obama. Just 11 percent would pull the lever for Bloomberg.

Romney would also hold a significant edge over both rivals among small business owners, with 49 percent voting for Romney, 32 percent voting for Obama, and only 5 percent of small business owners voting for Bloomberg.

Tea party supporters would overwhelmingly support Romney in this three-way race, with 84 percent siding with the former Massachusetts governor, and just 2 percent voting for Obama and 1 percent voting for Bloomberg.

There is one just one area where voters preferred Obama over Romney; those who don’t have any skin in the game:

However, among those voters who do not have to pay federal income taxes – either because their income level is below the taxable threshold, or their deductions negate any tax liability – President Obama would receive the most support. Among the non-taxpayers, Obama would get 47 percent of the vote, Romney would get 32 percent, and Bloomberg would get 4 percent.

The Zogby International poll was commissioned by The O’Leary Report newsletter. The Poll surveyed 2,062 likely voters August 20-23, and has a margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 2.2 percentage points.

My feeling is that Zogby, wanting to include a third party candidate that may have a fair amount of appeal to independents, chose Bloomberg. It’s significant that, even with a third party detractor factored in, Romney still beats Obama.


► Jayde Wyatt