New Gallup Poll Should Have Chicago Sweating…Profusely

SPOILER ALERT: In this post I’ll tell you why polls are looking very good for Mitt, but will also conclude by saying it only matters if we all dig in, do our part to get out the vote. So click the “ComMITTed” link!

I’ve now seen three commentaries on the latest Gallup poll, and they’re telling a consistent story: Chigago is, or should be, sweating profusely about these latest polling numbers. And the evidence is they are.

The Eye Candy: National Polls.

National polls are great and continue to give encouraging news of a Mitt 2-4% lead. The RealClearPolitics average of polls gives Mitt a solid 1% edge. The latest poll in that group, a Rasmussen poll of 1,500 likely voters from October 25 to October 27 (yesterday), gives Mitt a 3% lead. The underlying data show Mitt is winning more Republicans (90%) than Obama is Democrats (85%), but the big news on the national front is that Mitt is leading among independents by 11%. But national polls are really the eye candy of the presidential politics. Fun to look at, but in the end, not what will make the difference.

Where the Rubber Meets the Road: State Polls

What’s really important, as we all know, is what happens in the electoral college. So what about those swing states? Well, there’s good news there, too, even if there’s lots of work to be done. Rasmussen’s electoral college map, based on Rasmussen’s own polling in each state, shows Mitt leading or tied in the critical swing states of Florida (50%/48%), Virginia (50%/47%), Colorado (50%/46%), Iowa (48%/48%), New Hampshire (50%/48%), Wisconsin (49%/49%) and, perhaps most importantly, Ohio (48%/48%). Given Mitt was behind in these states a couple weeks ago, and the press’ coronation of Obama as the narrow winner of the last two debates, the trends here are in the right direction: Mitt is gaining when it counts, and Mitt has an ability to improve, while Obama, who the voters have known for four years, is more likely to drop. Other states are also narrowing: Minnesota and Pennsylvania are closer than expected, if still leaning Obama. And no one thought Wisconsin would be tied a few weeks ago. If you don’t like Rasmussen’s numbers, you can turn to RealClearPolitics’ collection of polls and resulting electoral college map. RCP reports similar numbers for each of those states. It shows Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire in a closer race, with Obama having a slight lead in Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio, with Mitt continuing to make inroads.

So national and state polling shows it’s a very close race, Obama has a miniscule and shrinking lead in states he needs to win, and Mitt is either tied or within easy striking distance in all the same states. Very encouraging for a challenger.

But…there’s more.

The Zinger: the Latest Gallup Poll

The real story is that Gallup poll. Neil Stevens of Red State dissects Gallup’s numbers and says:

We always talk about the independent, swing vote in elections because those tend to be the persuadables. But party ID numbers matter as well, because those partisan voters tend to split better than 90/10 for their party.

It is for that reason that Gallup’s new partisan ID split, one that mimics what Rasmussen has been saying all along, predicts nothing less than doom for the Democrats, and a solid, national win for Mitt Romney this year.

…the numbers are brutal. In 2008, the Democrats had a 39-29 (D+10) advantage in hard party ID, and a 54-42 (D+12) advantage with leaners. In 2012 though, we’re in the post-TEA party era. Republicans now show a 36-35 (R+1) hard party ID advantage, and a 49-46 (R+3) lead with leaners. This gives us a range of party ID swings from 2008, from R+11 to R+15.

[Emphasis added.]

What does this mean? In a tight election with key swing states on the edge and voter turnout key, more of those voters self-identifying as Republicans than Democrats this year means things may be better than they look on the surface of the polls. Mr. Stevens then goes further and says what these numbers would mean if plugged into his own electoral college model. It generates an estimate of the electoral college results if more voters self-ID as Republican versus his baseline year. Here’s the picture:

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Before Debate Ended, Obama Cronies Concocted ‘Liar’ Meme Against Romney

10 minutes before Barack Obama’s presidential debate face-plant ended, his panicked, damage-control, political toadies pressed speed-dial – pronto!

Before Barack Obama and Mitt Romney even gave their closing statements, the conclusion of that cobbled-together, conspiratorial conference call was: The only way to stop Romney is to relentlessly label him – LIAR:

New York Times:

On the conference call convened by aides in Denver and Chicago even as the candidates were still on stage, there was no debate in the Obama campaign about the debate. None of the advisers fooled themselves into thinking it was anything but a disaster. Instead, they scrambled for ways to recover. They resolved to go after Mr. Romney with a post-debate assault on his truthfulness. Ad makers were ordered to work all night to produce an attack ad.

Rich Lowry, in yesterday’s New York Post, writes: Team O’s pathetic ‘liar, liar’ attack

Credit President Obama’s aides with discernment. Even before the first presidential debate was over, they knew they needed to come up with an excuse, and fast. They settled on one they haven’t stopped repeating: Mitt Romney lied his way to victory.

[insert sarcasm] The president would’ve rebutted Romney’s gross deceptions, except he was too focused on answering questions about the country’s future and too taken aback by Romney’s brazenness to answer in real time. Although once he had a day or two and his witty rejoinders were cued up in a teleprompter, he was absolute hell on Romney.

The case that Romney lied so brazenly that it undid the president rests, first, on the idea that the Republican misrepresented his own tax-reform plan. Obama said that Romney proposes to cut taxes by $5 trillion over 10 years. Romney denied it. The president’s team responded, with its customary civility and nuance: “Liar!”

But this isn’t even a close call. Romney wants to cut income-tax rates 20 percent across the board and make up the revenue by closing loopholes and deductions. This isn’t a tax cut; it’s a wash. It’s been Romney’s plan ever since he proposed it during the primaries. It’s such a simple concept that only willful obtuseness keeps the president or his team from understanding it.

If Romney proposed a 1 percent across-the-board cut on rates and the elimination of all loopholes and deductions, surely Obama would accuse him of wanting to raise taxes, because people would be paying more in taxes despite lower rates.

In fact, this is the approach of the president’s own Simpson-Bowles debt commission: It suggested lower rates and fewer deductions such that the federal government would garner more revenue.

Obama’s thuggery team are falsely crowing that the real Romney didn’t show up at the debate.

Yes, he did.

67 million people saw Romney as he really is – smart, prepared, patriotic, competent, compassionate, hard-hitting while affable, and a true leader who can think on his feet. How satisfying it was to have the corrupt mainstream media manacled on the sidelines for 90 minutes! Where is the real Obama? He’s America’s magistrate of masquerade. Every time we turn around we see a different version of the man. For nearly four years, he’s gotten away with saying one thing and doing another. Remember when our contrived Commander-in-Chief called for greater civility in the public discourse?

“At a time when our discourse has become so sharply polarized, at a time when we are far too eager to lay the blame for all that ails the world at the feet of those who think differently than we do, it’s important for us to pause for a moment and make sure that we are talking with each other in a way that heals, not a way that wounds.” – Barack Obama, January 11, 2012

Oh, the sanctimony of phony baloney Barack… He laps up fawning words that cover for HIM; not so for the other guy. Blogger Doug Giles zings the excuses liberal talking heads dreamed up for Obama’s ignominious implosion (before getting the ‘liar Mitt’ memo):

Another rather amusing post-debate kabuki show the Left put on was the ridiculous excuses for Obama’s feckless performance during that 90-minute flogging by Romney.

One of my favorites was Al Gore’s “the high altitude got to him”… Obama wasn’t acclimated and thus he was a wee bit discombobulated. First off, Obama’s used to being high; he spent his entire college years Rocky Mountain high. Please. Secondly, didn’t he give his yippee-ki-yay DNC speech back in ‘08 in Denver? I think he did. Google it and get back to me, Al.

Second on my list of favorite excuses regarding Obama’s clock getting cleaned came from Bob Woodward who surmised that Obama was abysmal that night because he received some heavy bad news prior to the debate that had him distracted and upset. This could be a legit reason. Maybe something in the Middle East had gone awry? Nah, that couldn’t be it because after the Benghazi massacre he was able to party with Jay-Z and Beyoncé and fly to Vegas with no problemo whatsoever.

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NO DUH! – Poll Confirms Majority of U.S. Business Owners Disapprove of Obama

These polling results come as no surprise following Obama’s recent “you didn’t build that” remarks.

If you haven’t yet, be sure to visit the campaign’s new “BUILT BY US” micro-site. Download your own “Built by Us” poster and submit a video telling your story:

MEMORIAL DAY POLL: Romney has big lead over Obama among Veterans

A new Gallup poll out today shows that Romney leads Obama by a large margin among our military veterans.

Romney leads Obama 58%-34% among veterans, who make up about 13% of the electorate, Gallup reports.

Four years ago, McCain beat Obama among veterans by 54%-44%.

Veterans in the U.S. today are mostly male and two-thirds are aged 50 or older. In a population that is currently evenly split in its preferences for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney for president, veterans stand out for their 24-point preference for Romney. About a fourth of men are veterans, and it is their strong skew toward Romney that essentially creates the GOP candidate’s leading position among men today. Among non-veteran men, Obama and Romney are essentially tied.

Gallup Poll: More Consider Voting for ROMNEY Than Obama or Perry

We had to share the latest polling results from Gallup today!

More Voters Considering Romney Than Obama, Perry

Gallup Poll – September 22, 2011

PRINCETON, NJ — More registered voters say they would definitely vote for Mitt Romney or might consider doing so (62%) than say the same about his two main rivals in the 2012 presidential election, Democrat Barack Obama (54%) and Republican Rick Perry (53%).
Romney’s advantage in broader voter consideration over Perry and Obama results partly from his greater appeal to independent voters — 70% say they would definitely vote for him or consider doing so, compared with 60% for Perry and 45% for Obama. Romney also receives greater consideration from Republican and Democratic voters than does Perry, and matches the 90% party loyalty Obama gets from his party’s supporters.

The greater consideration Romney gets among registered voters speaks to his potential in the 2012 election, something that has not necessarily been translated to performance yet. Romney is essentially tied with Obama in the latest head-to-head matchup for the general election, and currently trails Perry in Republicans’ current preferences for the party’s presidential nominee. However, the same poll finds Republicans saying they are more willing to trade agreement on the issues for electability when choosing their party’s presidential nominee, something that could work to Romney’s advantage given that he currently fares slightly better than Perry in a head-to-head matchup versus Obama.

Voter Consideration for Romney Growing, Flat for Obama

The 62% of voters who are considering voting for Romney is up significantly from the 48% who said so when Gallup asked a similar question in April. At that time, 54% of registered voters said they would definitely vote for Obama or consider doing so, the same percentage as now. Perry, who did not officially enter the race until August, was not included in the April poll.

Despite his lower April numbers, Romney still fared as well as or better than the other leading Republican contenders at that time, including Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee — both of whom declined to run — and Sarah Palin, who has not yet made an official announcement on a 2012 presidential candidacy.


At the moment, Romney has a greater reservoir of potential voter support than does either of his main rivals for the presidency. To prevail, Romney must convert as much of that potential support as possible to actual support. Should he defeat Perry for the nomination, his level of actual support among Republican voters should increase to levels approaching those Obama currently enjoys among Democratic voters. […]

Thus, a key to gauging candidate electability and ultimately the winner of the 2012 election will be the candidate’s appeal to independent voters. Currently, Romney seems to have an edge in three respects: the greatest number of independent voters would definitely vote for him or consider voting for him; he leads Obama among independent voters in a head-to-head matchup; and he fares slightly better among independent voters in a head-to-head matchup with Obama than does Perry.

(emphasis, image added)

► Jayde Wyatt

Obama’s ‘Debt Reduction Class Warfare’ Plan: Romney “He Has No Clue”


President Obama: “… you don’t raise taxes in a recession.” (President Barack Obama, 8/5/09)


U.S. President Barack Obama announced $3 trillion long-term deficit reduction plan, including $ 1.5 trillion tax increase plan. (Forex Currency Trading News 9/20/11)

I’ll throw this in for good measure – Obama’s own words:

Perhaps President Obama thought that delivering his deficit reduction speech outside in the White House Rose Garden on Monday would perfume his populist odoriferous reversal on raising taxes during a ‘recession’ (no specifics on entitlements):

From Obama’s speech (transcript):

Either we ask the wealthiest Americans to pay their fair share in taxes, or we’re going to have to ask seniors to pay more for Medicare. We can’t afford to do both.

Either we gut education and medical research, or we’ve got to reform the tax code so that the most profitable corporations have to give up tax loopholes that other companies don’t get. We can’t afford to do both.

This is not class warfare. It’s math. (Laughter.)

Data reveals a different story than Obama is telling. The rich do pay considerably more in taxes:

There may be individual millionaires who pay taxes at rates lower than middle-income workers. In 2009, 1,470 households filed tax returns with incomes above $1 million yet paid no federal income tax, according to the Internal Revenue Service. But that’s less than 1 percent of the nearly 237,000 returns with incomes above $1 million.

This year, households making more than $1 million will pay an average of 29.1 percent of their income in federal taxes, including income taxes, payroll taxes and other taxes, according to the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank.

Households making between $50,000 and $75,000 will pay an average of 15 percent of their income in federal taxes.

Lower-income households will pay less. For example, households making between $40,000 and $50,000 will pay an average of 12.5 percent of their income in federal taxes. Households making between $20,000 and $30,000 will pay 5.7 percent.

Let’s close tax loopholes and enforce laws already on the books so the 1% of the wealthy who are gaming the system no longer get away with it. What Obama isn’t saying is that his claims about high-income Americans are based on money invested – income that has already been taxed.

After Obama’s speech, Mitt Romney issued the following statement on Obama’s plan to raise $1.5 TRILLION in taxes:


“President Obama’s plan to raise taxes will have a crushing impact on economic growth. Higher taxes mean fewer jobs – it’s that simple. This is yet another indication that President Obama has no clue how to bring our economy back. I encourage President Obama to look at my detailed economic plan to create long-term growth and prosperity for our nation. The only way to get our economy moving again is to elect a president who understands how to create jobs and rein in spending – that is why I am running.”

(link added)

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) added his voice to the burgeoning criticism of Obama’s deficit-reduction plan.

Ryan slammed Obama’s new tax rate for millionaires as “class warfare.” Class warfare…may make for really good politics but it makes for rotten economics. We don’t need a system that seeks to divide people,” Ryan argued.

Believing that Republicans won’t support tax increases, Obama’s reelection plan debt reduction plan employs ‘the rich should pay their fair share’ class warfare rhetoric he hopes will save the day for him come November 2012. He sees the writing on the wall:

Americans Say Federal Gov’t Wastes Over Half of Every Dollar

A new Gallup survey reveals that Americans believe that the government wastes more than half of every $1 that it spends. President Obama’s solution? To ask for $1.5 trillion more.

Why Obama should withdraw

When Ronald Reagan ran for re-election in 1984, his slogan was “Morning in America.” For Barack Obama, it’s more like midnight in a coal mine.

The sputtering economy is about to stall out, unemployment is high, his jobs program may not pass, foreclosures are rampant and the poor guy can’t even sneak a cigarette.

His approval rating is at its lowest level ever. His party just lost two House elections — one in a district it had held for 88 consecutive years. He’s staked his future on the jobs bill, which most Americans don’t think would work.

If Obama wasn’t president, we would be ‘marching on the White House’

Unhappy members of the Congressional Black Caucus “probably would be marching on the White House” if Obama were not president, according to CBC Chairman Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.).
CBC members have expressed concern in recent months as the unemployment rate has continued to rise amongst African-Americans, pushing for Obama to do more to address the needs of vulnerable communities.

What should the White House do now? James Carville, Democratic strategist says “PANIC!”

(emphasis added to articles)

► Jayde Wyatt

Gallup Poll: It’s Romney Over Obama

It’s been a while since we’ve posted a presidential poll, so we’re checking in with Gallup today:

Gallup – Obama trails Romney, ties Perry

Aug 22, 2011

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) would beat President Obama among registered voters, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) would tie the president if the election were held today, according to a new Gallup Poll.

Obama leads GOP Reps. Ron Paul (Texas) and Michele Bachmann (Minn.) among registered voters, but by 2 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

The numbers reflect a worrying slide for Obama heading into the 2012 campaign season[…]

Obama leads each Republican among national adults, but his lead narrows or disappears among registered voters.

Romney is the only candidate leading Obama among registered voters, 48 percent to 46 percent, with 6 percent undecided, according to the new Gallup poll. Perry and Obama are tied at 47 percent among registered voters, also with 6 percent undecided.

Obama would beat Paul, 47 percent to 45 percent, and best Bachmann by a 4-point margin, 48 percent to 44 percent.
Just as worrying for the president is that all the Republicans except Bachmann lead Obama among registered voters who consider themselves independents. Romney leads among independents 47 percent to 44 percent, Perry leads 46 percent to 44 percent and Paul leads 46 percent to 43 percent. Bachmann trails Obama, 48 percent to 42 percent.

(emphasis added) At a glance:

Additional details here.

Speaking of Rick Perry, a fellow Texan thinks he isn’t suited to be president

► Jayde Wyatt

~UPDATE from Ross
This morning, Rasmussen is reporting that Obama’s Presidential Approval Index rating of -26 is the lowest Approval Index rating yet measured for President Obama.

Romney’s New Video ‘College Grads – Where are the Jobs?’ Highlights Plight of Core Obama Supporters

Mitt Romney’s latest ‘Obama Isn’t Working‘ video showcases the plight of college graduates scouring the nation for few-and-far-between jobs. It points out the rough job challenges facing core Obama supporters – young Americans.

E.J. Dionne, from the Taunton Daily Gazette, points out how Romney is much more in touch with what voters care about:

Romney’s Lesson for Obama

The headline read, “Romney for President Launches New Web Video: Obama Isn’t Working: Where are the Jobs?”

The video spoke to the difficulties that new college graduates are having finding work in a brutal job market. This bit of campaign propaganda went straight at the core of President Obama’s political base — young Americans who volunteered for him by the tens of thousands in 2008 and powered him to victory in state after state. If joblessness disillusions enough of those voters, the president will be in trouble.

Romney’s exercise was just a passing bit of politics unlikely to make many waves in an environment obsessed with debt and fears of betrayal among conservatives and liberals alike. But it was hugely instructive.

The Romney video was more in touch with what voters are worried about than anything going on inside our famous Beltway. Consider a Gallup Poll released last week. Asked what was the most important problem facing the country, 31 percent of Americans said the economy and an additional 27 percent specifically said unemployment and jobs, for a total of 58 percent. Only 16 percent listed the deficit or the debt.

[…] Romney is campaigning on the electorate’s animating issue. It’s a nice division of labor for the GOP. Obama is caught up in the tea party’s priorities. Romney isn’t. It’s upside-down politics.

Then there is Romney himself. The conventional wisdom is that he is a weak front-runner, short of support from a Republican establishment that should be rallying around him. […] The interest in Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s probable candidacy reflects a hunger on the Republican side for more choices.

Yet Perry will also prove to be a flawed candidate who is far to the right of the country. And on one front, he will enter the race with the worst of both worlds. With his Texas swagger, he will remind those who don’t like George W. Bush of George W. Bush. But many supporters and confidantes of the former president don’t like Rick Perry at all, regarding him as a lightweight who has turned on his patron.

(emphasis added)
To read more, click here.

View Romney’s latest video here.

After nearly three years of Obama and after his $787 BILLION failed stimulus plan, unemployment has grown from 7.8% to 9.2%. These figures (which aren’t bumps in the road) don’t reflect the underemployed and those who have given up on finding a job in the Obama economy.

► Jayde Wyatt

Gallup Poll Shows Mitt Romney Ahead (Suffolk University Poll as Well!)

With candidates Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and Haley Barbour no longer presidential contenders, a Gallup poll released a couple of days ago shows Mitt Romney is surging in name recognition and support:

The new numbers indicate that Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich are the three best-known candidates, and coincidentally — or not — they also top the list of Republicans’ preferences.

Palin led the field in name recognition at 96 percent, followed closely by Gingrich and Romney at 84 percent and 83 percent, respectively.

But when it came to the candidate voters would choose — Romney led the way with 20 percent.

(emphasis added)

This poll is another in a long string of polls showing Romney as the best candidate to successfully challenge Obama and move swing states into the Republican column.  With unemployment remaining high, Obama’s approval numbers are under 50%. Increasingly, more Americans want to “change” away from Obama and have a conservative leader in the White House.

As the march to 2012 proceeds, people will increasingly recognize that Mitt Romney is the conservative, correct choice for America.

Now, Politico is reporting that “Nearly one-third of respondents in the Suffolk University survey who backed either Huckabee or Trump said they would now support Romney instead.” and 20% more are still undecided and up for grabs.

Before Huckabee and Trump dropped out

Mitt Romney – 17%
Mike Huckabee – 15%
Sarah Palin – 10%
Newt Gingrich – 9%
Rudy Giuliani – 6%
Donald Trump – 5%
Michele Bachmann – 4%
Mitch Daniels – 4%
Ron Paul – 4%
Herman Cain – 3%
Tim Pawlenty – 2%
Rick Santorum – 2%
Jon Huntsman – *
Gary Johnson – *
Buddy Roemer – *

Second Choice of Huckabee and Trump Supporters (asked only of those who answered “Huckabee” or “Trump” on the first question, after the two candidates dropped out)

Romney – 29%
Palin – 16%
Giuliani – 10%
Pawlenty – 8%
Santorum – 6%
Paul – 4%
Bachmann – 2%
Cain – 2%
Daniels – 2%
Gingrich – 2%
Huntsman – *
Johnson – *
Roemer – *

Final numbers (consolidated total of above two questions)

Romney – 20%
Palin – 12%
Gingrich – 9%
Huckabee – 8%
Giuliani – 7%
Paul – 5%
Bachmann – 4%
Cain – 4%
Daniels – 4%
Pawlenty – 3%
Santorum – 3%
Trump – 1%

Survey of 468 likely voters was conducted May 10-17, 2011.

Also, as you can see here, Gov. Romney is by far the best chance we have to defeat President Obama.

Mitt Romney Leads the field in new Gallup Poll (11-16-10)

From Gallup:
In general, Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) are at least twice as likely to identify as conservative as they are to identify as moderate or liberal. Thus, it is crucial for any potential Republican candidate to appeal to conservatives, especially given the Tea Party movement’s influence in deciding nominations for Congress in 2010.

More information about the poll can be found HERE.