Election Results, Exit Polls, News and More [Live Blog]

ELECTION DAY IS HERE!

We will be posting results and updates all night long. Keep checking back!


Updates: (Newest to oldest, ALL times Eastern)

11:15 PM – Networks projects Obama wins re-election

11:15 PM – NBC News calling Ohio for Obama technically giving him 270 needed to win.

11:15 PM – Networks calling Iowa for Obama

11:00 PM – AP calls NC for Romney

10:30 PM – Romney gaining ground in OH, barely trailing in FL. Legal battles could be imminent.

9:45 PM – Electoral forecast update: Romney MUST win OH, VA, FL, and CO or IA in order to reach 270

9:40 PM – CBS calls New Hampshire for Obama

9:30 PM – FOX calls WI for Obama

9:25 PM – Current Intrade: Obama 89%, Romney 11%

9:20 PM – NBC and FOX call Pennsylvania for Obama

9:15 PM – Florida: 78% reporting: Obama 3,393,471 ; Romney 3,393,664

9:00 PM -

9:00 PM -

8:55 PM@VicLundquist: Governor of Pennsylvania just gave an update here at HQ. Said based on turnout, Governor Romney will win PA later. pic.twitter.com/LW2ZNGmO

8:50 PM – No definitive information from any of the swing states yet. Fl, NC, VA, all too close to call. OH and NH with only small numbers reporting. Romney must take FL, NC and VA PLUS one of OH, PA or WI+IA or WI+NH. Looks like a long night ahead.

8:30 PM – (R) McCrory wins Gov in NC, a pick-up for the RGA

8:20 PM – 57% reporting in Florida; Romney +3

7:25 PM – Per CBS – popular vote so far: Romney 1,781,731 ; Obama 1,655,082

7:25 PM – Florida returns: 5% in, 50-50.

7:15 PM – Exit polls show Romney winning Indiana by 12. Obama won by 1 in 2008.

7:05 PM – CNN Virginia Exit Polls: 49-49

7:00 PM – WaPo reports that Romney has not even written a concession speech (click here)

6:55 PM – Via RCP: Battleground Pollster Projects 1.5 Point Romney Win (click here)

6:50 PM – This is the crowd waiting to greet Romney in Pittsburgh a few hours ago (click here)

6:35 PMDrudge on early exit polls: Romney winning NC, FL; Obama winning NH, PA, MI, NV; Toss up: OH, VA, CO, IA

6:25 PM – Here’s a preview shot of where Romney will be giving his victory speech tonight (click here)

6:05 PM – Judge orders poll workers in Philly to cover mural of Obama at polling location (story here)

6:00 PM – Check out Mitt and Ann voting this morning:

Big Night in Illinois! Come Chat and Watch the Returns With Us


POLLS are now closed in Illinois and 54 delegates are up for grabs! Feel free to share updates and links in the chat below.

Update: Mitt wins! Only question is by how much and how many delegates will go to Mitt?

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Please register a name to chat. It’s very easy – no email required. Enter a name and then press the ‘profile’ button to register it.

Today is the last day to donate $5 at to be automatically entered for the chance to grab a bite with Mitt and Ann at Mitt’s favorite burger joint. All expenses paid!

Plus, watch Mitt’s Google+ Campaign Hangout from earlier today

Turnout has surpassed 2008 levels which once again exposes the media’s narrative about a lack of GOP voter intensity for the lie that it is.

Finally, check out the updated primary and delegate count and then watch Mitt’s Victory Speech here.

Mythbusters – “The Conservative Base Doesn’t Like Mitt Romney?” Analyzing the Exit Polls

We’ve all heard the line “the conservative base doesn’t like Mitt Romney” or some version of that idea. It’s a line that has been thrown around carelessly in the media for several months now, and we all know that once the media adopts a theme or “narrative” about a candidate, it becomes incredibly difficult to break that narrative even when evidense abounds to the contrary.

Well, now that there has been some actual voting, lets look at the FACTS to see if that claim holds water. What I am going to argue is that, if we analyze the exit polls from the competitive primaries and caucuses held so far, Romney has captured the conservative base by a large margin over his competitors. So according to actual voters, and not just the pundits and talking heads in the media, Romney is doing just fine with the “conservative base.” 

Of the eight states that have held competitive primaries or caucuses, Romney has won four and tied one. Romney won New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada and Maine and then essentially tied Iowa. Exit polls from the states that Romney has won show that Romney captured the “conservative base” by a large margin. Lets look at some examples:

New Hampshire – Chris Cillizza gave a summary of the exit polls which showed: 

Mitt picked up 49% of GOP voters.

Romney’s 49 percent is the highest mark among self-identified Republicans for any presidential candidate since New Hampshire moved its primary forward in the calendar.

Contrast that with John McCain, with whom he’s often compared as a squishy moderate with problems with Republicans.

McCain is the only candidate since 1980 to win New Hampshire even as he lost among self-identified Republicans.

That means McCain was essentially the worst winner with Republicans in New Hampshire over the past 30 years, while Romney was the best.

Florida – Exit polls in Florida show that Romney received the vast majority of Republican support between the candidates with 48%. Among those who self-identify as “conservative,” Romney garnered 41%, more than any other candidate. Among those who consider themselves “very conservative,” Romney split the vote with Gingrich (Romney got 30% and Gingrich got 41%).

Nevada: Exit polls in this state reveal Romney truly stomped the other competitors in regard to which candidate the self-identified “very conservative and “conservative” voters supported.

Romney garnered a vast majority of the Republican vote at 56%. Romney won every category of Republican voters including the Very Conservative by wide margins. The category of very conservative is particularly interesting, Romney got 46%, Gingrich got only 25% and Santorum only 15%.

Maine: No exit/entrance polls were taken. Results of the caucus show:

Mitt Romney has 39.2 percent of the vote with 2190 votes, Ron Paul has 35.7 percent with 1996 votes, Rick Santorum has 17.7percent with 989 votes, and Newt Gingrich has 6.25 percent with 349 votes.

So the pundits and talking heads say that the conservative base doesn’t like Mitt Romney, but exit polls of ACTUAL VOTERS in New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada and Maine show otherwise. 

A critic might say, “O.K., Romney did well among conservatives in the states he won, but what about the states that Romney didn’t win?”

While it is true that Romney didn’t do as well among conservatives in the states he lost (South Carolina, Colorado, and Minnesota), we have to also acknowledge that Santorum and Gingrich didn’t do well among “the base” in the states that Romney won. So if we are going to claim that “the base doesn’t like Romney” because he lost some states, by the same logic, we would have to conclude that the base doesn’t like Santorum because of how voters of the base rejected Santorum in Florida, South Carolina, Nevada and Maine. We would likewise have to conclude that the base doesn’t like Newt Gingrich because of how he performed in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado and Maine. The same standard needs to be applied to all the candidates.

National Polls – I just want to make a quick comment about national polls. For those of us who have been watching the presidential race closely, we remember a couple of months ago how the pundits frequently used national polls to illustrate that “the base didn’t like Romney.” The pundits would say something along the lines of “Romney just can’t break out of that mid-twenties approval rating in national polls, that shows that the base just doesn’t really like Mitt Romney.” However, in the last month, Romney has shattered that myth by shooting into the mid to low thirties since Iowa and New Hampshire. In fact, after Romney’s win in Florida, he polled higher in the national polls than any other candidate has polled since the race began a year ago. That is why I was amused yesterday to hear Sarah Palin say “I like Mitt Romney . . . but he has to do more work to convince conservatives. His support can’t break out of that mid-thirties level.” 

LIVE ELECTION RESULTS & CHAT: Scott Brown vs Martha Coakley

UPDATE: AP and FOX call it for Brown, Coakley concedes, and the Massachusetts Miracle is complete!


Chat with Scott Brown fans right here all day while we share the live news, updates, exit poll returns and results! We will also post updates of the big news items. Check back with us throughout the day!

Updates start right below the Chatbox.

[THE CHAT BOX HAS BEEN MOVED BACK TO THE SIDEBAR, IT ALSO HAS A PERMANENT HOME HERE]

Update 14 (11:00PM by Ross): Mitt introduces Brown for his victory speech and receives a curtain call to chants of “Mitt Mitt Mitt”. The Massachusetts Miracle is complete and now we just need to put the pressure on to get him seated.


Update 13 (9:32PM by Nate): COAKLEY CONCEDES, THIS RACE IS OVER!!
Fox and AP call it for Brown. Current tally: 52-47 for Brown. 87% of precincts reporting.


Update 12 (9:12PM by Ross): Mitt on Hannity embodies the feeling of all of us by saying “This is monumental. This is epic!”


Update 11 (8:55PM by Nate): 53% for Brown, 46 for Coakley – 40% of precincts reporting


Update 10 (8:25PM by Nate): POLLS CLOSED 20 MINUTES AGO. First results: 52% for Brown, 47 for Coakley – 4% of precincts reporting


Update 9 (8:15PM by Ross): From rasmussenreports: Among those who decided how they would vote in the past few days, Coakley has a slight edge, 47% to 41%. 22% of Democrats voted for Brown. That is generally consistent with pre-election polling.

Update 8 (6:10PM by Nate): From HotAir: Coakley press release complains of voter fraud. The problem is the release is dated ….. YESTERDAY?
ALSO:


Update 7 (4:31PM by Nate): HOW DID WE FORGET THE SCOTT BROWN VOTER BOMB?


Update 6 (4:30PM by Nate): More Brown/Coakley headlines:


Update 5 (3:55PM by Nate): Good Scott Brown election reads:


Update 4 (3:25PM by Aaronius): Mitt Romney to provide Massachusetts special election coverage on Sean Hannity tonight at 9PM EST – Tune in!
Also, Eric Fehrnstrom, a senior advisor to both Scott Brown and Mitt Romney, gives us some juicy insight regarding the dynamics of this special race over at National Review Online.


Update 3 (2:15PM by Nate): Scott Brown vs Martha Coakley Exit Polls Intrade update: Brown 83.5; Coakley 20.0 (Intrade is an online prediction “stock” market. Tends to be very accurate since people are actually betting real money.)

Also, “Why is this woman handing out absentee ballots?”


Update 2 (2:00PM by Nate): Exit Polls

  • Boston Globe mistakenly calls the elections for Coakley.
  • Politico reports that there may not be many exit polls because this basically wasn’t race until 2 weeks ago. It did not give polling organizations enough time to prepare.
  • #MASEN, Scott Brown, Martha Coakley, Massachusetts, are all in the top ten trending topics on twitter, in that order. #MASEN stands for MA Senate.


  • Update 1 (11:30 AM by Aaronius): Morning Joe Video: Romney (this morning) on Massachusetts Race

Analysis on Election Morning
MITT ROMNEY

Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007; candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008

Scott Brown is a strong candidate who ran a good campaign. As recently proved in New Jersey and Virginia, good candidates win. But Brown’s victory was more than a rejection of the liberal Obama agenda.

Brown won in Massachusetts, the bluest of blue states, an accomplishment that could not have been possible absent extraordinary voter passion about the issues, in particular Obamacare, the economy, terrorism and federal spending.

Massachusetts health care is not perfect, but 98 percent of our residents are insured — a feat that, unlike Obamacare, came with no new taxes, no Medicare cuts, no “public option” and no trillion-dollar price tag. It’s little wonder that Massachusetts voters gave a thumbs-down to a federal health-care takeover. In electing Brown, they also repudiated the president’s policies of ineffective stimulus borrowing and treating an enemy combatant to the legal defense rights normally reserved for citizens.

This victory was a repudiation of the arrogance of Washington’s aspiring neo-monarchists who believe that government is wiser than the people of America.