Interesting info leaks today from two polling sources, both – incredibly – showing Mitt Romney ahead of potential 2012 rivals in their home states.

In Alaska, Mitt Romney edges Sarah Palin by 3%.
From PPP:

Mitt Romney vs. Sarah Palin

If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012 she can’t count on a whole lot of support back home. 62% of Alaska Republicans are opposed to her making a White House bid and she gets only 17% in a hypothetical 2012 primary in the state tying for her second with Mike Huckabee behind Mitt Romney.

It’s not that Alaska Republicans don’t like Palin- a majority of them still do. But there’s a significant disconnect between GOP voters in the state liking Palin and thinking she should run for President, a divide we’ve seen with Republicans nationally and one that presents the biggest threat to a possible Palin candidacy. Even among voters with a favorable opinion of Palin in the state just 39% think she should launch a 2012 bid.

Romney gets 20% to 17% for Palin and Huckabee, 16% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

In Minnesota, Mitt Romney pummels Tim Pawlenty by 13%.
From MPR:

Mitt Romney vs. Tim Pawlenty

The poll also compared Pawlenty the two most prominent, presumed front-runners for the Republicans in 2012 — former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Romney fared better than Pawlenty with likely Minnesota voters, 45 percent to 32 percent, while Pawlenty easily beat Palin in the hypothetical matchup, 59 percent to 24 percent.

*It’s worth noting that this last poll was extracted from all likely voters, Republicans & Democrats alike.

Any thoughts on these results? Could these be accurate depictions of the primary to come? Is it possible that anyone could swipe a victory from Mitt in his native Michigan?

~Aaron G.

From the Clarus Research Group: (source – pdf)

If the next presidential election were held today, and the two candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican __________, for whom would you vote? (asked of 1050 registered voters)
45 Obama, 41 Romney
47 Obama, 39 Huckabee
49 Obama, 37 Jeb Bush
48 Obama, 36 Gingrich
52 Obama, 34 Palin

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If the following candidates were seeking the next Republican Presidential nomination, which ONE would now most likely favor… (ROTATE NAMES)? (asked of 415 Republicans and Republican leaning independents)
29 Romney
19 Huckabee
18 Palin
13 Gingrich
8 Jeb Bush
1 Thune
1 Daniels
2 Other
10 unsure

———————————————————————————

Of the following possible Republican presidential nominees, which ONE do you think would have the best chance to beat Barack Obama in the general election… (ROTATE NAMES)? (asked of 415 Republicans and Republican leaning independents)
42 Romney
14 Huckabee
11 Palin
10 Gingrich
8 Jeb Bush
2 Thune
1 Daniels
15 unsure

———————————————————————————

Which ONE of the following do you regard as the major spokesperson for the Republican Party today –(ROTATE NAMES)? (asked of 415 Republicans and Republican leaning independents)
14 Romney
14 McCain
10 Gingrich
9 Beck
9 Limbaugh
8 George W. Bush
6 Palin
5 Boehner
5 Hannity
4 Cheney
3 McConnell
2 Steele
1 Other (volunteered)
12 Not sure/No answer

———————————————————————————

My thoughts: Romney is within margin or error with Obama, leads 2012 hopeful, is clearly seen as the most electable in a general, AND is viewed as the party spokesman for the Republican party….. It is looking very good for Romney in 2012.

~Nate G.

Lifenews adds a bit of their own analysis

Also released today was a PPP poll showing Mitt in the early lead in Ohio and Wisconsin

7:00 PM Update: New CNN Opinion Research Poll
Please give me your best guess — if Barack Obama decides to run for re-election, do you think he
will win the presidential election in 2012, or do you think he will lose?
Will win 44%
Will lose 54%
No opinion 2%

Which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012?
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 22%
Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 18%
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 17%
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 8%
Texas Congressman Ron Paul 8%
Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty 5%
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum 5%
Indiana Congressman Mike Pence 4%
Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour 1%
Someone else (vol.) 8%
None/ No one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 3%

Huck, Newt, Sarah & T-Paw

Solely for human interest I place this hypothetical situation before you: Romney does not run in 2012. There are four candidates who have composed formal campaigns to win the GOP nomination – Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich, and Pawlenty. You are standing in the booth, ballot in hand. Who do you cast it for? Sorry no write-ins here. (Of course this poll is aimed at Romney supporters, but if you are not among them feel free to vote up your candidate.)

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If you care to explain who you cast your vote for and why, please do so in the comments. Civility is required.

(BTW- I chose these four because they are in my opinion the most likely to run in 2012, though I don’t believe two of the above are actually going to do so. Can you guess which ones I’m thinking of?)

~Nate G.

The RNC Chair election is now over. The 2010 congressional seats will be next. Then we will come full circle to the Presidential primaries all over again. Much can and will change over the course of the next couple of years, but the anxious are already asking questions. So…

If Romney Runs in 2012, who will be his biggest GOP nominee challenger? Please vote in the poll on the left sidebar.

Notice I don’t write the question “who do you think will win the GOP nod?”. Such a poll would be useless as this is a pro-Romney blog and most my visitor are Romney fans.

I have my thoughts on the other potential nominees. To me, some I like, some are so-so, and then there’s one who I hope fails miserably on his Fox News show. Three guesses which that one is. I should be honest, I saw about 15 minutes of it once and he did a very funny segment, very clever.

~Nate Gunderson

P.S. At a popular fan-site for He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, there are some that think Mitt is not even a force to be reckoned with. They’re also saying that Romney didn’t come in second, but a weak third in the primaries. Uh huh, right.