Is Mitt Romney “Presidential?”  This quality is vitally important to possess when seeking the land’s highest office (think of our last president who didn’t look and/or act “Presidential” …I’m not coming up with one).  I have always viewed Mitt Romney as exquisitely Presidential, but now there is polling evidence that confirms that I’m not alone in this opinion.  Public Policy Polling recently conducted a poll and their conclusions are summed up in their own title “Only Romney Seen as Presidential Material“ 

Among all people polled (Republicans, Democrats, and Independents) Romney was viewed as presidential by more voters than any of the other GOP candidates, including Huckabee, Palin, and Gingrich.   When asked if each candidate “was most qualified to be President or Vice President” the results for all voters are below (2008 John McCain voters sub-group in parentheses): 

• Romney: 30% Pres, 20% VP;  (50% Pres, 23% VP)
• Huckabee: 22% Pres, 27% VP; (37% Pres, 32% VP)
• Palin: 16% Pres, 32% VP; (30% Pres, 47% VP)
• Gingrich: 16% Pres, 27% VP; (30% Pres, 33% VP)

Full PDF crosstabs of the poll here.
So Romney is the only one of the four candidates that people view as more qualified to be Pres than VP.  That is what we need in a nominee . . . someone people are confident in and comfortable imagining as POTUS!!

On a tangentially related (isn’t that an oxymoron?) note, Romney just had some AMAZING and IMPORTANT polling news come out of the Granite State.  Mitt blows away all the other GOP possible contenders in a recent UNH/WMUR poll.
(Full PDF crosstabs here):

Republican Primary

• Mitt Romney 40% 
• Rudy Giuliani 10%
• Tim Pawlenty 7% 
• Mike Huckabee 7%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Sarah Palin 6% 
• Ron Paul 5% 
• Donald Trump 3%
• Rick Santorum 1% 
• Haley Barbour 1% 
• John Thune 0% 
• Mitch Daniels 0%
• Gary Johnson 0% 

For those that don’t want to add it all up the totals are Romney 40%, Everyone else 46%.  But what’s even more encouraging is How Romney matches up with Obama in New Hampshire:

• Barack Obama 57%
• Sarah Palin 34%

Romney beats Obama by +8%, but Pawlenty loses by -7% (15% difference), and Palin loses by -23% (31% difference).

The favorability data is good news for Romney as well:

• Mitt Romney 73%  / 16%  {+57%}
• Rudy Giuliani 59%  / 29%  {+30%}
• Tim Pawlenty 34% / 9%  {+25%}
• Mike Huckabee 50%  / 28%  {+22%}
• Newt Gingrich 41%  / 40%  {+1%}
• Sarah Palin 33%  / 50%  {-17%}
• Donald Trump 21% / 64% {-43%}

Keep in mind that Obama beat McCain by 10% in New Hampshire on election night in 2008. 

KEY POINT ALERT!! . . . Romney brings the fight to Obama like no other GOP candidate can.  Putting in play states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Michigan is something that Romney will do, and put the White House on defense in a new set of “battle ground” states. 

This also brings up one last point.  I’ve noticed that Romney and Huckabee are the two top GOP dogs in national and state polling vs Obama for the last several months.  However, if you look at state data individually, Huckabee is beating Obama by HUGE margins in the southern states, but lags badly in many ”purple” states.  Although Romney beats Obama in the South as well, it is by smaller (though still comfortable) margins.  But in the electoral college system, winning Tennessee by 5% (or 0.0001% for that matter) gives you as many electoral votes as does winning by 25%.  What this means is that Huckabee’s general election national polling is not indicative of a demographic/electoral map that can pull off a win on election night.  He is largely a regional candidate and most westerners/northerners don’t seem to care for him too much.  Romney’s got a much wider and broader appeal and can bring the fight to Obama with a strong electoral strategy. 

Yes, Romney is by far our most PRESIDENTIAL AND ELECTABLE candidate.  Let’s get behind him and help make his nomination and subsequent election a reality!

The annual Conservative Political Action Conference is upon us! Thousands of conservatives are converging on the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington, DC to listen to speakers and discussion panels featuring the most prominent conservative leaders of our nation. The 3-day conference also features a highly anticipated straw poll for GOP 2012 contenders (guess who we are rooting for.)

Let’s do this in Q&A format… (please note all times are Eastern)

Q: JUST TELL US… WHEN IS MITT ROMNEY GOING TO SPEAK?
A: Okay, okay. Romney is set to speak Friday morning at 10:30.

Q: Will I be able to watch somehow if I’m not there in person?
A: I believe live video will be available for the whole conference. Go to http://video.cpac.org/ and register. There are videos of speakers from last year available right now. Update: Live video is also available here: http://www.politico.com/livestream/
Q: Who will be the Keynote Speaker this year?
A: Florida Rep. Allen West was confirmed just yesterday to give the closing Keynote speech on Saturday. Glenn Beck was the Keynote speaker last year, and Rush Limbaugh the year before that. Sarah Palin was actually invited to give the speech, but turned it down last week citing a very busy February schedule.

Q: When does the straw poll voting close?
A: Friday 5:00 PM

Q: When are the results of the straw poll announced?
A: Saturday 5:15 PM

Q: Who will be on the ballot for the straw poll?
A: 1. Michele Bachmann, 2. Haley Barbour, 3. Herman Cain, 4. Chris Christie, 5. Mitch Daniels, 6. Newt Gingrich, 7. Mike Huckabee, 8. Jon Huntsman, 9. Gary Johnson, 10. Sarah Palin, 11. Ron Paul, 12. Tim Pawlenty, 13. Mitt Romney, 14. Rick Santorum, 15. John Thune, 16. Other, 17. Undecided

Q: Will Mitt Romney win the straw poll?
A: Doubtful. Ron Paul won last year and is favored to repeat this year as well. The Campaign for Liberty has made no secret of its intention to flood the poll for Ron Paul, just as they were successful at doing last year. Mitt Romney did win the poll in the years 2007 – 2009. My guess is he’ll take a strong second.

Q: Do you know the results of past years?
A: As a matter of fact I do..
2010: Paul 31, Romney 22, Palin 7, Pawlenty 6, Pence 5, six others
2009: Romney 20, Jindal 14, Paul 13, Palin 13, Gingrich 10, Huckabee 7, four others
2008: Romney* 35, McCain* 34, Huckabee 12, Paul 12
2007: Romney 21, Giuliani 17, Brownback 15, Gingrich 14, McCain 12
2006: George Allen 22, McCain 20, Giuliani 12, Rice 10, Frist 6, Tancredo 5, Romney 5, Gingrich 5, Santorum 3, Pataki 3

** It should be noted that Romney announced the suspension of his campaign during his 2008 speech. Prior to his speech 25% of the votes were already in, with Romney leading McCain 44-27. The remaining votes placed after Romney’s speech were in McCain’s favor 37-32.

Q: Do you have video of Romney’s speeches in past years?
A: Yes, we have 2010, 2009, 2008, and 2007. All include video and transcript.

Q: Will any Team MRC members be there?
A: Yes, there will in fact be 5 of us there on site, and we will be joined by Jeff of NYforMitt as well. Nancy French of Evangelical for Mitt will also be in attendance. Aaron, Ross and David, are already there. Luke and I will be arriving on Friday.

Q: How will you guys be covering the on-goings at the conference?
A: Excellent question. We have been afforded a seat in the blogger’s lounge (yes, we’re legit) where we will do write-up for posting on our blog here. We will also be live-tweeting the entire conference from our mega-smart phones – providing news, insights, photos and video as quick as our stubby thumbs will permit. There is live widget at the top of our home page where you can follow all of our tweets. Another option is to follow the list directly on Twitter.com. Or, for the more impatient (and more adventurous) you can try this pre-configured tweetgrid: http://bit.ly/CPACTwits. The grid follows @RomneyCentral, @AaronGundy, @NateGundy, @C0mm1tt3d (Ross), @DavePulfoo, @LukeGundy, @NYforMitt,and @E4Mitt. Other suggested search terms: ‘#cpac11′, ‘Romney’, and ‘MittRomney’.

Q: Will there be any official meet up for Mitt fans and/or MRC readers?
A: I’m not sure. I’d like to call together a gathering to meet everyone and perhaps enjoy some refreshments, but do not have a time/location yet. We will advise if we pick a time and place to meet up. I would hope to do so Friday since that is when Romney is speaking and most supporters would be there.

Q: Do have a schedule of who is speaking and when?
A: Yes. Below is actually an abbreviated schedule. The full 19-page event schedule can be downloaded here: CPAC Schedule (PDF)

Thursday
9:15 Rep. Michelle Bachmann (MN)
9:45 Sen. Ron Johnson (WI)
10:15 Sen. Pat Toomey (PA)
11:15 Rep. Kristi Noem (SD)
11:45 Rep. Raul Labrador (ID)
12:00 Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY)
12:30 Newt Gingrich
1:00 Panel – Reagan at 100: Model for the Next Generation
2:00 Rick Santorum
2:30 Panel – Traditional Marriage and Society
3:15 Wayne LaPierre – CEO of NRA
3:45 Sen. Rand Paul (KY)
4:00 Award presentation to Donald Rumsfeld “Defender of the Constitution”
4:30 Rep. Paul Ryan (WI)

Friday
9:00 Panel – Public Attitudes Toward Security
9:30 Panel – Cutting Spending by the Spenders
10:30 Mitt Romney
11:00 Gov. Luis Fortuño (PR)
11:15 Rep. Tom Price (GA)
11:30 Rep. Marsha Blackburn (TN)
11:55 Presentation “Blogger of the Year” Award to Javier Manjarres of The Shark Tank
12:00 Panel – It’s the Spending Stupid! The Tea Party and the Political Landscape
1:00 Sen John Barrasso (WY)
1:30 Sen. John Thune (SD)
2:00 Sen. Mike Lee (UT)
2:15 Panel – Do We Need a Constitutional Amendment to Stop the Spending?
3:00 Tim Pawlenty
3:30 Rep. Ron Paul (TX)
4:00 Gov. Rick Perry (TX)
4:30 Herman Cain

Saturday
9:00 Andrew Breitbart
9:30 Gov. Haley Barbour (MS)
10:00 David Horowitz
10:15 Panel – Defending Free Speech on Campus
11:00 Rep. Connie Mack (FL)
11:30 Panel – Bleeding America Dry: The Threat of the Public Sector Unions
12:15 Panel – Repealing Obamacare: In the States, In Courts, and In Congress
1:00 Ambassador John Bolton
1:30 Panel – The Nuclear Threat: China and North Korea
2:20 Lifetime Achievement Award Presentation to Pat Boone
2:30 Panel – How to Think About Afghanistan
3:15 Jonah Goldberg
3:45 Ann Coulter
4:15 Rep. Peter Roskam (IL)
4:30 Panel – Changing the Conversation: Winning with Minorities, Women, and Independents
5:15 Straw Poll Results
5:30 Key Note Speaker Rep. Allen West (FL)

Q: Wow, sounds like a lot of fun and a lot of work. Anything I can do to help?
A: Yes, yes, and yes. Our costs to attend are substantial, and we are not paid for efforts. We could certainly appreciate sponsorship to help recoup some costs for the event (none of us being independently wealthy ) We’ve already raised $500, and would like to raise about $500 more. Donate at the link below, or buy something in our Mitt Romney 2012 store. All of our items in the store are already paid for now so any purchase would go directly to helping us out a CPAC. Thanks a ton!

~Nate Gunderson

Rasmussen released their latest 2012 presidential poll yesterday. Mitt Romney is preferred by two points over Obama – 44% to 42%. Mike Huckabee ties with Obama – 43% apiece; Sarah Palin trails by 11 points – Obama 47%, Palin 38%.

Although it’s very, very early in this ‘undeclared’ race for the White House, today’s numbers for Governor Romney are a good way to begin the week.

Rasmussen:

An early look at potential 2012 match-ups indicates that the election is likely shaping up as a referendum on President Obama. That’s typical when an incumbent runs for reelection.
[...]

The numbers show that Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee essentially run even with Obama at this point. Romney is nominally up two points, 44% to 42%, while Huckabee is tied with the president at 43% apiece.

Three other well-known potential candidates, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trail the president. Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to 38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%.

Rasmussen makes this observation:

Seven lesser-known candidates trail by anywhere from 10 to 17 percentage points. However, the most significant finding is that regardless of what GOP candidate is named, the president earns between 42% and 49%. This suggests the campaign is starting off in a fairly competitive environment, though much can change in the next year-and-a-half.

Head-to-head match-ups / poll dates:

► Jayde Wyatt

Forgive the bluntness in advance, I’m just so taken aback by the ignorance of some folks out there. First off, let me say that I like Sarah Palin. I appreciate her role in our party, and I’ve shown her my support in the past by voting for her — but the gal has some staunch followers that have gone off the deep end.

I’ve seen all sorts of random Romney jabs from her folks on twitter; people are asking things like, “Where is Mitt Romney?” and “Why on Earth hasn’t he rushed to Palin’s side to defend her in her darkest hour?”

Now, I normally don’t get too defensive over twitter comments, but when a supposed Sarah Palin information site allows their contributors to publish flat-out rubbish in Mitt’s name, I have to step in and back my boy up. At the mentioned site, they cite all the big events that have taken place over the past few months: November’s mid-term ‘shellaking’, the Tucson tragedy, and Obama’s recent State of the Union speech. Then the author goes on to say that Mitt has been “MIA”, even questioning if Romney had “joined the witness protection program” because he hasn’t chimed-in a bit on any of these issues:

Now it would be, surely, a reasonable expectation for Romney, considered by the left wing media to be the Republican’s candidate of choice for 2012, to have made substantial statements across most, if not all of these issues-surely that’s what candidates are expected to do.

All that we have heard, for all that we have read and seen from Romney, is silence.

What galls most is the total silence from him when Palin was being unfairly savaged over Tucson. It seems to me that if he had made any statement at all defending a colleague it would have only enhanced his reputation with the base. But there seems a lack of moral backbone and a self interest which has trumped the sort of action which could only have assisted his long term prospects.

I can’t believe it can happen, and will do all I can to prevent, that Romney can go sleepwalking to the nomination whilst being MIA and after Palin has taken all the blows that a spearhead does.

Again, it is Palin, (and Bachman) who have led the charge on the lightweight fluff of the SOTU, with any sort of powerful statement from Romney invisible, in the main media.

All that has surfaced is Governor Christie of New Jersey having a dinner meeting for Romney where tactics apparently were discussed.

If Romney believes that this behind the scenes politicking, this not taking any controversial positions, not defending his colleagues against vindictive attacks, will ensure his selection I think he is on the wrong path.

How ridiculous are these claims!? Okay, let’s start the debunkathon from the top:

Mitt Romney was very active in the mid-term elections. The man often hit several campaign stops, for different candidates, in different states on the same day. He raised more money and contributed to more endorsed candidates than any other PAC. It’s no wonder, then, that he would furnish a congratulatory response for the winning candidates the day after the election, and then again the day the new Republican majority was sworn in.

Not only did Romney produce a written statement the morning after the State of the Union, but he also discussed SOTU on the ‘Hannity‘ that same day. Silent? …I think not.

On the horrible day of the Tucson shooting, Mitt Romney happened to be on a Middle Eastern learning and listening tour. So from the other side of the globe, Romney made this statement condemning the senseless attack on Rep. Giffords — calling for a swift and harsh punishment for the perpetrator of the cowardly attack.

Frankly, I don’t see any reason why Romney would come to Palin’s defense on the whole ‘targeting’ issue. Surely, he recognizes that acknowledging the left-wing’s attempt to turn the tragedy into political gain would, in the end, only give them credibility. In my honest opinion, Palin herself should have just disregarded the smears, continued on with her normal life, and watched the left’s frustration peak as she refused to lend credence to their accusations. The ‘Mama Grizzly’, to my understanding, is a big girl who can fight her own battles. She doesn’t need help, she doesn’t ask for help, and honestly it is not Romney’s primary concern (especially being in the Middle East at the time) to come to her aid at every opportunity.

– - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
There, wasn’t that easy? All I had to do was take a step out of the dark and abysmal ‘Grizzly bear cave’, google “Mitt Romney’s statement on ________”, and educate myself. Any camp does a disservice to their candidate by spreading misinformation. I beg of you, Palin Information Blog contributors (that goes for C4P, too), take off those blinders for one minute and catch a glimpse at the world around you — you’ll realize soon enough that Mitt is not such a bad guy, that he and Sarah actually have a great amount of respect for one another, and though our respective leaders have differing agendas, we all share a common goal: To take our country back.

Oh, and here’s just a few other statements, stances, and upcoming events that further prove that, in fact, Romney is not in hiding:

Mitt Romney Says Congrats To New RNC Chairman Reince Priebus

Governor Romney Launches Earmark Ban Petition

Governor Romney on the March for Life

Ann Romney’s (she’s not in hiding, either) Statement on the Passing of Elizabeth Edwards

Mitt Romney to Guest Same Day on ‘The View’ and ‘Piers Morgan Tonight’

Gov Mitt Romney Praises President Reagan: A Legacy of Optimism, Strength

Mitt Romney Remarks on Legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King

Romney Weighs-in on the New Tax Cut Deal

Mitt Romney Opposes New START Treaty

End Rant.


-Aaron Gundy- Follow @AaronGundy on Twitter

Some of us here at MRC have been watching twitter feeds with much anticipation this morning, waiting for the results to come in from the New Hampshire GOP presidential straw poll. The straw poll (sponsored by ABC News and WMUR-TV) took place moments ago in Derry, NH and was the first-ever straw poll of state Republican officials. Reportedly, the turnout at this state GOP gathering was “highest in memory“.

The results leaked in the form of a tweet from Amy Walter’s Twitter page:

Excellent showing for Romney, whose whopping numbers are greater than the sum of 2nd, 3rd, 4th, & 5th place finishers!

Interesting side notes from Nate Gunderson: One significant point to make about this is that convention delegates are strong conservative voters. Throw in the fact the indies also vote in the primary (and Romney has an even bigger lead amongst them) the actual primary voting margin would be higher. ALSO, the NHGOP selected a Tea Party backed candidate for NHGOP Chair — these same Tea Partying members selected Romney as their candidate of choice. In summary, Romney has widespread appeal amongst indies, mods, and cons alike. That is a recipe for success!

-Aaron Gundy- Follow @AaronGundy on Twitter

Update: reports say 273 of the 493 attendees participated in the straw poll, but the original percentages posted by WMUR only come to whole integers if there were 278 votes. Here are the results as I’ve tallied them. ~Nate (HT BOSMAN and RightSpeak for the graph)

Candidate	Percentage	# of Votes
Mitt Romney	35.1%	97
Ron Paul	10.5%	29
Tim Pawlenty	7.6%	21
Sarah Palin	6.9%	19
Michele Bachmann	5.1%	14
Jim DeMint	5.1%	14
Herman Cain	4.0%	11
Chris Christie	3.3%	9
Rick Santorum	3.3%	9
Mitch Daniels	2.9%	8
Newt Gingrich	2.5%	7
Mike Huckabee	2.5%	7
Mike Pence	2.5%	7
Rudy Giuliani	2.2%	6
Judd Gregg	1.8%	5
Gary Johnson	1.8%	5
Other	1.8%	5
Donald Trump	1.1%	3
Haley Barbour	0.7%	2
Jon Huntsman	0.0%	0
John Thune	0.0%	0

Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead in New Hampshire in the early stages of the race for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination, according to a new survey commissioned by NH Journal and conducted by Magellan Strategies. The survey is the first statewide survey of Granite State Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in 2011.

New Hampshire Poll Results for 2012 GOP Field:

Mitt Romney 39%
Sarah Palin 16%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Rick Santorum 3%
Haley Barbour 1%

Full Analysis HERE.



Interactive cross tabs below:

In an interview with Politico, Demint had this to say about Sarah Palin:

“We’ve never spoken, but she left me a nice message, and I believe she’s done more for the Republican Party than anyone since Ronald Reagan,” he said.

The article also pointed this out:

DeMint backed Romney in the 2008 presidential primary — but said he’s got “an open mind” about 2012.

“He’s obviously near the top of my list, he’s a good quality candidate and we’ve got others who are looking at it,” said DeMint, who also is getting encouragement from some conservative activists to run for president.

Senator DeMint, here’s a question for you:

Does Sarah Palin light up a room like Mitt Romney?

10. Jim DeMint:
9. Mike Pence:
8. Mitch Daniels:
7. John Thune:
6. Haley Barbour:
5. Mike Huckabee:
4. Tim Pawlenty:

3. Newt Gingrich: One well-connected Iowa operative was recently detailing the massive amounts of time — and money — that the former House Speaker had spent in the Hawkeye State over the last two years. That got us to thinking about the possibility that we have been underestimating Gingrich in our 2012 calculations. What he has: name identification, the ability to raise money and more policy proposals than Antoine Dodson has You Tube hits. (And you said we couldn’t get an Antoine Dodson reference into the Fix!) What he doesn’t: a demonstrated ability to stay on message day after day in the cauldron of a presidential race. Still, if Gingrich runs, and he sounds like he is going to, he is a major force. (Previous ranking: 6)

2. Sarah Palin: Palin has begun to break out of her Twitter/Facebook cocoon to interact with the mainstream media of late. Basic political analysis would suggest that Palin’s newfound love — ok, that may be too strong a word — for the press means that she is trying to re-shape her public image in advance of a run for president. But, as we have written many times, basic political analysis doesn’t often apply to Palin. it’s just as likely that this media tour is the result of a snap decision made by Palin and her top/only political adviser (aka First Dude Todd Palin). Who knows? What we do know is that Palin is the only person on the Line who could get 10,000 people to show up and see her next weekend in Iowa. And that’s worth something. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Mitt Romney: Romney’s op-ed in opposition to the tax compromise proved that the former Massachusetts governor is deserving of our top spot. He effectively positioned himself in opposition to not just Obama but also congressional Republicans — a very good place to be given the anti-establishment sentiment among the GOP electorate these days. Romney has, by far, the most advanced political organization of anyone in the field and his ability to self-fund gives him a leg up financially over his potential competitors. Romney’s weaknesses — his difficulty in connecting on the stump, his Mormonism, his flip-flops on social issues — are well known and real. But, Romney seems a more measured and mature candidate than he was in 2008. Whether that resonates with primary and caucus voters remains to be seen. (Previous ranking: 1)

Is this a fair assessment? Let’s hear your thoughts.

TPMDC confirmed today what many of us already know: Mitt Romney can beat President Obama, and is the best candidate to do so. More importantly, they just have some of the best interactive graphics available that shows the WHY, WHERE and HOW.

The only Republican presidential contender consistently leading President Obama in 2012 polling is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The failed 2008 presidential candidate is showing some early signs of Mitt-Mentum, currently leading President Obama 45.6% to 44.3% in the TPM Poll Average of national polls. The latest boost to Romney’s numbers came over the weekend in a McClathcy-Marist poll that gave Romney a 46%-44% edge over President Obama in a head-to-head matchup.

Read the rest of the TPM article HERE.

The charts below are interactive. Drag your mouse over the DOTS on the line graphs to find specifics on a particular match-up.

One thing is CLEAR. Mitt Romney’s graph has already passed Obama and is turning upward in the right direction.

Enjoy the graphs below. I sure did! If you are having problems viewing the graphs, you can view them by clicking the TPC icon below as well:

Mitt Romney:

Mike Huckabee:

Newt Gingrich:

Sarah Palin:



Welcome to the first edition of the Gundy Power Rankings for the GOP Presidential Race – compiled by myself (Nate) along with my brothers Luke and Aaron. Yes, this is mostly for fun as we don’t consider ourselves as expert pundits. We’re just average Joes with an opinion and we’re going to lay it out for you. You can agree or disagree with us all you want – just remember we’re entitled to our own opinions. Here goes…

December GOP Presidential Power Rankings

1. Mitt Romney – To the casual observer it may seem that Romney had disappeared for portions of 2009 and 2010, but to political junkies, it seems like Mitt never stopped running since dropping out of the race in early February of 2008. He has remained extremely loyal to the Republican party purposefully avoiding any opportunity to speak critically of fellow GOPers. Despite the bitter 2008 race and bad blood between he and McCain, Romney quickly and forcefully backed his previous opponent, showing he can put the past behind him for the good of the party. His team intact, he will hit the ground running with his expanded network and increased fundraising prowess.
Strengths: Fundraising, network, 2008 experience, favorability among independents and moderates. More than any other candidate Romney will be able to compete in nearly every state due to an extremely organized ground game and sheer fundraising power. Unlike 2008 Romney won’t have to launch an early monstrously enormous campaign to get his 2% name recognition raised. And as is the case with any good businessman you learn from past failures; Team Romney already seems keen on avoiding some missteps of the last run around.
Weaknesses: RomneyCare. The passing of ObamaCare has been the single greatest detriment to Romney’s potential to win the 2012 nomination. Team Romney must have a comprehensive plan to respond to critics on this issue. As of yet Romney has only defended his plan when specifically asked about it in interviews – perhaps to avoid speculation of him running in 2012. Our guess is when he announces they will have a battle plan ready to attempt to squelch concerns. Critical opinion of RomneyCare is a hurdle for Romney right now, but not an insurmountable one. As a note we’d like to add that the “Mormon issue” did not make Romney lose in 2008 (though it had moderate effect); it will not have “game-changing” effect this time around either.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: edging downward
Odds of running: 99% – Only thing stopping Romney from running is if the health of his wife deteriorates, or his own for that matter.
Probable announcement date: Early April

——————————————————————————————————————————–

2. Sarah Palin – Until recently we would have Palin in 3rd behind Huckabee, but currently her national polling has improved, as well as the fundraising for her PAC. Palin’s unconventional methods of “running” make her difficult to place in the power rankings; she has been all over the board on other lists. She has the following and energy necessary to mount a serious primary campaign, but often neglects those things that typical candidates-in-waiting do – ie. ground-game formation in early primary states, though there has been an uptick of this activity recently. She is on her way to various foreign destinations, a move that is likely to burnish her foreign policy credentials. Palin also just finished a promotional tour for her second book since running on the national GOP ticket: America by Heart. All these recent moves (book, travel, fundraising, polls) force us to believe she will certainly run, whereas a few months ago we were doubtful.
Strengths: Star power. Palin dominates the airwaves, headlines, and google searches. Her message gets out there loud and clear at any time of her choosing, employing her Facebook and Twitter accounts to great advantage. She also has very energetic, loyal, and vocal fans. They could push any close race to her advantage simply by overwhelming the turnout.
Weaknesses: Over-exposure. Some folks won’t react well to the all-Palin-all-the-time atmosphere that currently pervades the national news cycle. There is already evidence of push-back within both the liberal and conservative communities. Extended all-out exposure will force everyone to either really like her, or seriously dislike her. This divisiveness amongst voters does not bode well for a national campaign, should she advance to that stage. Naysayers will certainly bring up the fact she left office early as Governor of Alaska. As with Romney’s weaknesses, these are not insurmountable. We suggest she avoid over-exposure by simply not responding to negative comments directed at her. Media, and the consumers of gossip, feed off of such drama.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: ticking upward
Odds of running: 95% – Who can resist the prodding of millions of fans?
Probable announcement date: Early July

——————————————————————————————————————————–

3. Mike Huckabee – A strong showing in 2008, coupled with a popular weekend talk show on FOX keeps Mike Huckabee in the public eye. Huckabee maintains a spot in the top-tier mainly due to his positive national polling amongst GOP, as well as versus Obama. Huck has great speaking skills that that keep give him an advantageous likability factor, proven also by his favorability ratings. With a good ol’ southern demeanor and high-standing amongst evangelicals he is sure to be a force reckoned with in 2012. In 2008, Huckabee had to climb onto the national stage of nowhere just as Romney had done several months earlier. But, again like Romney, he will not have the same name ID struggles that he had in 2008. This time it’s a whole different game plan. Look for a very late entry as Huck continues to benefit financially, politically, and legally from his FOX contract.
Strengths: Huckabee is the SoCon man. Anyone with religious and social conservative leanings will naturally gravitate to Huckabee, and these types of voters exist en masse in practically every state, but particularly in the South. They’ve shown in Iowa that they can organize and show up at the polls in numbers. Plus, as Huckabee has highlighted recently, he consistently polls well against Obama.
Weaknesses: Fundraising. We view this as a must for Huckabee and he still hasn’t learned quite how to do it. It will be of vital importance if there is not a clear leader in the race after the initial primary contests. Team Huck will be out of gas if it goes into extra-innings. Huck will need to sew up the nomination quickly, or learn to do some serious fundraising if he wants to avoid this danger. The problem is that if he does sew it up early, he’ll face the same problem in the general election.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: edging upward
Odds of running: 90% – Can he afford to run and pay the mortgage on his new $3 million house?
Probable announcement date: Mid July

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4. Newt Gingrich – The man of ideas has constantly toyed with the idea of running for the GOP nomination. We believe him when he says he’ll only run if he feels the support is there and if we has a good shot of winning – but we are inclined to believe that that full support is not there. Gingrich may realize this as he weighs his options, but even so may continue to flirt with a run because its good business – it helps him sell books and make more media appearances. We aren’t the only ones to note that his tweets and other public comments typically contain some form of self promotion; ie, “come visit me at this book signing” or “watch me on this program at this time”. This behavior makes us think that an actual run may not be 1st priority on Newt’s list.
Strengths: Widely known as the guy with the best new ideas – the GOP policy man. He’s an eloquent speaker and has years of experience and plenty of star power to boot.
Weaknesses: Baggage. There are number items in the closet that aren’t often discussed, but will certainly come out if Newt makes the leap into candidacy. Also, Newt has never run a national campaign and currently has no organization from which to mount a run. He’d have to rely on his star power to get a successful campaign launched.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: neutral
Odds of running: 40%
Probable announcement date: late March (he has stated he would make the decision about this time)

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5. Tim Pawlenty – T-Paw has taken all the steps to indicate he is most definitely running for President: not seeking another term in MN, formed a PAC and continues aggressive fundraising, multiple trips to Iowa, new book, etc, and etc. One will note that his recently announced book tour has 11 stops which includes 2 stops in Iowa and 2 stops in New Hampshire. Though Pawlenty lacks national name ID, he is practically in the same position Mitt Romney was in 4 years ago. Pawlenty has been a formidable fundraiser, but still falls behind Romney and Palin. It will be vital for Pawlenty to have extremely successful appearances at debates or his campaign will simply not gain the traction needed to win some primaries.
Strengths: Ability to raise funds with little national notoriety. Charismatic and likable.
Weaknesses: Doesn’t seem to instill excitement in a large following. He needs to find some way to give his campaign serious traction.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: neutral
Odds of running: 99%
Probable announcement date: Late January (needs to announce early to his name out there)

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The Dark Horses:
Mike Pence: Says all the right things and appeals to many types of voters. Given successful appearances in the debates, he is our top pick to most likely break into the ranks of the top tier. All signs point to a run unless he chooses to run for Governor of Indiana instead.
John Thune: Seems to have a lot going for him, but will he get traction given the competition? We’re not confident he is running.
Haley Barbour: A very powerful and respected force in the GOP. We think the fact that he was a lobbyist for the tobacco industry may put dampers on voter support should he run. Also not sure he is in the race.
Ron Paul: Still has no chance of winning, but he will run to get his agenda out on the national stage. He stayed in the race last time until the last moment, far beyond the point where it was known he had no chance of a comeback. He will have the same 10% of support he had last time, but not much more.
Mitch Daniels: Recent comments regarding a “truce on social issues” make him a non-starter for many SoCons, which in great likelihood makes his campaign a non-starter as well, despite his excellent record as IN Governor.

Rick Santorum: Will need to do a lot of work, build a lot of support, and have a lot of luck to come close to winning. He is a strong candidate to pick up momentum from SoCons after the debates start.

There it is. Let us know where we’re wrong, and be sure to give us your list as well. Until next time…

~The Gunderson Bros., Nate, Luke and Aaron.