It’s been a while since we’ve posted a poll; today’s news from Rasmussen deserves capital letters:

ROMNEY IS GAINING ON RICK PERRY

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary voters shows Perry with 28% support and Romney capturing 24%. Before Perry entered his first debate, the Texan held an eleven point advantage over Romney, 29% to 18%.

Trailing far behind the frontrunners are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at nine percent (9%), Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann at eight percent (8%), Georgia businessman Herman Cain with seven percent (7%) support and Texas Congressman Ron Paul who earns six percent (6%). Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, draws the vote from three percent (3%) while ex-Utah Governor Jon Huntsman draws support from two percent (2%). Michigan Congressman Thad McCotter comes in with just one percent (1%) of the vote. Another 11% of GOP voters are undecided at this time. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

These latest numbers show a significant decline for Bachmann and some improvement for Gingrich.

Among conservative GOP primary voters, Perry leads by nine. Among moderates, Romney leads by 12.

Perry is supported by 36% of Evangelical Christian voters along with 31% of Catholic voters. Romney is backed by a plurality (31%) of Protestant voters.

At a glance…

Rick Perry – 28%
Mitt Romney – 24% (Before Perry’s first debate, he polled 11 pts ahead of Romney.)
Michele Bachmann – 8%
Herman Cain – 7%
Ron Paul – 6%
Rick Santorum – 3%
Jon huntsman – 2%
Thaddeus McCotter – 1%
Undecided – 11%

Romney best against Obama:

A generic Republican candidate holds a five-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up for the week ending Sunday, September 18. However, when GOP candidates are named, they don’t do as well. Romney currently is very close to the president, while Perry trails by seven, and Bachmann trails Obama by double-digits.

(emphasis added to survey) See more details here.

► Jayde Wyatt

The Weekly Standard has a short, sweet article out today worth noting…

Rasmussen: Perry Slips, Romney Improves, in Matchups With Obama

A couple of weeks ago, a Rasmussen poll showed Rick Perry leading President Obama 44% to 41%. But Rasmussen’s latest polling shows a change of fortunes, with Perry trailing Obama 39% to 46%.

Two weeks ago, Mitt Romney was trailing Obama 43% to 39%, but now Romney is leading Obama 43% to 40%. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Obama’s approval rating has been consistently around 43% for the past few weeks.

[...] [I]f it becomes a clear trend that Romney leads, and Perry trails Obama in the polls, that could seriously sway the GOP presidential race.

(emphasis, italics added)

We’re looking forward to the next presidential debate on September 22. Expect to see some serious sway…


H/t Frank

► Jayde Wyatt

We knew he would begin to close the gap…

A new Bloomberg National Poll shows Mitt Romney is chipping away at Rick Perry’s lead – with Perry narrowly ahead. And, general election voters prefer Romney.

Republicans give Rick Perry frontrunner status in their party’s presidential primary race even as warning signs flash over his ability to win support in the general election.

The Texas governor is the preferred choice of 26 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in a Bloomberg National Poll conducted Sept. 9-12. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney places second at 22 percent, while all of the other Republican candidates get less than 10 percent.

Rick Perry – 26 %
Mitt Romney – 22 %
Michele Bachmann – 9 %
Sarah Palin – 8 %
Ron Paul – 8 %
Newt Gingrich – 4 %
Herman Cain – 4 %
Rick Santorum – 2 %
Jon Huntsman – 1 %

Obama Match-Up

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Perry trails President Barack Obama among the poll’s entire sample, 49 percent to 40 percent, about twice the deficit for Romney.

Among respondents who said they are likely to vote in 2012, a group that is hard to discern 14 months before the election, Romney leads Obama, 48 percent to 45 percent.
[...]
A proposal from Romney, the co-founder of Boston-based private-equity firm Bain Capital LLC, to eliminate taxes on capital gains, dividends and interest income for individuals making $200,000 or less per year is supported by 60 percent of Americans. Even among Democrats, 43 percent say it’s a good idea.

Romney was the only Republican tested in the poll who was viewed more favorably than unfavorably by all respondents.

(emphasis added)

For further details, click here.

► Jayde Wyatt

We’ve got results from another poll today – Public Policy Polling.

We like it!

Romney outperforms Perry in South Carolina

As long as the Republicans nominate one of their co-front runners, Mitt Romney or Rick Perry, they’re likely to keep South Carolina in their column pretty easily next year. That’s no surprise. What makes the Presidential numbers in the Palmetto State more interesting though is that despite Perry being the overwhelming favorite of Republican primary voters in the state, Romney actually does 7 points better than him against Barack Obama.

Romney leads Obama by 15 points, 53-38, while Perry’s lead is only 8 points, at 49-41. They win Republicans by almost identical margins- 91-4 for Romney and 89-4 for Perry. And they lose Democrats by pretty identical margins too- an 88-9 deficit for Perry, an 86-10 one for Romney. But the real disparity is with independent voters. Romney leads Obama by 16 points with them, 44-28. Perry wins them only narrowly by 3 points at 37-34. This has been a theme in our recent polling. GOP voters like Perry better than Romney. But independents are a lot more willing to vote for Romney than Perry. In a state like South Carolina the 7 point difference between how Perry and Romney fare in the general doesn’t matter that much. In the Floridas and Ohios and Virginias of the world it matters a lot. It’s going to be interesting to see whether the gap continues and whether Romney has any luck making an electability argument with Republicans voters if it does.

Obama’s actually pretty competitive with the other three Republicans we tested head to head with him in South Carolina. He ties Sarah Palin at 45% and ties Michele Bachmann at 44% as well, while trailing Newt Gingrich by only a single point at 45-44. He leads all 3 of them by double digits with independent voters.

(emphasis added)

Check out how Romney fares against Obama… SWEET!

H/t Karen

► Jayde Wyatt

The National Journal has conducted a poll of political insiders from the Republican and Democrat parties. Democrats cast 88 votes; Republicans cast 97 votes:

Insiders: GOP Would Be Better Off With Romney for 2012

Texas Gov. Rick Perry may be surging in polls of Republican primary voters, but his party’s Insiders aren’t convinced he’d be the best general election candidate. More than two-thirds of Republican Insiders say Mitt Romney has a better chance than Perry of defeating President Obama in 2012, according to this week’s National Journal Political Insiders Poll.Who has a better chance of beating President Obama in 2012, Mitt Romney or Rick Perry?

Mitt Romney – Dems 83% Repub 69%
Rick Perry – Dems 17% Repubs 31%

Many Republican Insiders acknowledged Perry’s appeal to conservatives but questioned his ability to win over independent voters. “Perry can fire up the base, but this election will be won in the middle, not on the fringes,” said one. Said another, “Having trouble ID-ing a single independent who’d vote for Perry.”

Democratic Insiders echoed that assessment by an even larger majority. “This election is sitting on a platter for Republicans if they do it right,” said one. “Romney is probably good enough. Perry will get drilled by independent voters and women.” Another quipped, “Rick Perry is all base and no swing.”

Insiders in both parties raised questions about Perry’s durability under the intense scrutiny of a presidential campaign. “As a conservative Republican, I love Rick Perry,” said one Republican Insider, who added “but as a campaign strategist, I know the degree to which a few self-reinforcing oppo-hits can devastate a candidate.” A Democratic Insider said plainly, “Perry’s mouth will do him in.”

Republicans and Democrats alike also pointed to Perry’s similarities to another Texas governor as a liability. “Obama’s best argument may be, ‘We won’t go back,’” said one Republican Insider. “Why make it easy for them by nominating someone who can’t help but remind voters of George W. Bush?”

Romney’s strength in the poll wasn’t solely based on concerns about Perry. Insiders identified Romney’s business background, his veteran campaign team, and his appeal to moderate voters as key general election strengths. “Romney has more national experience and more seasoned players, will trip himself up less, and will more successfully make the president’s performance the central issue,” said a Republican Insider.

A Democratic Insider added, “There is no state Perry can win that Mitt Romney won’t. There are some states Romney can put into play (MA, OH, PA, NH) that are harder for Perry to win.”

(emphasis added) To read more and see names of poll participants, click here.

► Jayde Wyatt

Polling news from the key battleground state of Florida by Sachs/Mason-Dixon shows President Obama continuing to fade behind Mitt Romney. And, Romney is at the had of the GOP field.

The poll was taken August 18-22:

Barack Obama continues to fade in Florida, with a new poll showing Mitt Romney holding a 51-43 lead over the president and Obama in a dead heat with Rick Perry.

“Unlike 2008, if the election were held today, President Obama would face a stiffer headwind to hold on to Florida and its 29 electoral votes against a top-tier Republican challenger — and that could cost him re-election,” said Sachs Communications president Ron Sachs, citing the Sachs/Mason-Dixon Poll taken Aug. 18-22.
[...]
Romney led all Republican hopefuls with 28 percent, with Perry garnering 21 percent, Bachmann 13 percent, Herman Cain 7 percent, Newt Gingrich 5 percent and Ron Paul 4 percent.

The survey of 625 registered Florida voters also found 56 percent of respondents disapproving of Obama’s job performance vs. 41 percent approving.

(emphasis added)

At a glance:

Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida GOP Primary

Romney – 28%
Perry – 21%
Bachmann – 13%
Cain – 7%
Gingrich – 5%
Paul – 4%
Santorum – 2%
Huntsman – 0%
Undecided – 17%

General Election

Romney – 51%
Obama – 43%
Perry – 46%
Obama – 45%
Obama – 46%
Bachmann – 44%

Further details may be found here.

► Jayde Wyatt

We’re posting data today from a new poll today called the Reason-Rupe Poll. The poll is part of a project from the Reason Foundation to measure attitudes toward government.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 20 percent to 18 percent edge over Texas Gov. Rick Perry among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters in the latest Reason-Rupe Public Opinion Survey.

Two potential candidates not currently in the race, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (12%) and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (8%), placed third and fourth among Republicans asked to name whom they would favor if the GOP primary were held today. They were followed by Rep. Michele Bachmann (8%), Rep. Ron Paul (7%), Herman Cain (4%), Newt Gingrich (3%), former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (2%, but no longer in the race), former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (1%), former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (<1%), and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson (<1%). Approximately 16% of Republican voters are undecided.

Emily Ekins, Reason Foundation polling director, discusses findings of the poll:

Responses to “If you were voting today in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, which one of the following candidates would you favor?”

Mitt Romney 20%
Rick Perry 18%
Sarah Palin 12%
Rudy Giuliani 8%
Michelle Bachmann 8%
Ron Paul 7%
Herman Cain 4%
Newt Gingrich 3%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Rick Santorum <1%
Gary Johnson <1%
Undecided 16%

(emphasis added) Additional info here.

► Jayde Wyatt

Check out Mitt handle a tough question in the video posted below the fold Read more…

Michele Bachmann is the winner of the Ames Straw Poll.

On a day when Gov. Perry announced he’s running for President in South Carolina, Michele Bachmann has taken the top prize. Congratulations to Bachmann and her supporters, a hard-earned and well-deserved victory.

May the best candidate win when the actual votes are cast in 2012.

2011 Straw Poll Results (Note, this is the first time write-ins were ever accepted at Ames.):

1. Michele Bachmann – 4, 823 (28.55%)
2. Ron Paul – 4,671 (27.65%)
3. Tim Pawlenty – 2,293 (13.57%)
4. Rick Santorum – 1,657 (9.81%)
5. Herman Cain – 1,456 (8.62%)
6. Rick Perry – 718 (4.25%)
7. Mitt Romney – 567 (3.36%)
8. Newt Gingrich – 385 (2.28%)
9. Jon Huntsman – 69 (0.41%)
10. Thaddeus Mccotter – 35 (0.21%)

162 votes were ‘scattered’ (0.96%).

Tweet from Governor Romney:

Congratulations to Michele Bachmann for winning the Iowa GOP’s straw poll. Look forward to crossing paths on the campaign trailless than a minute ago via web Favorite Retweet ReplyMitt Romney
MittRomney

2007 Ames Straw Poll results:

1 Mitt Romney 4,516 votes or 31.6%
2 Mike Huckabee 2,587 votes or 18.1%
3 Sam Brownback 2,192 votes or 15.3%
4 Tom Tancredo 1,961 votes or 13.7%
5 Ron Paul 1,305 votes or 9.1%
6 Tommy Thompson 1,039 votes or 7.3%
7 Fred Thompson 203 votes or 1.4%
8 Rudy Giuliani 183 votes or 1.3%
9 Duncan Hunter 174 votes or 1.2%
10 John McCain 101 votes or 0.7%
11 John H. Cox 41 votes or 0.3%

Since Mitt didn’t pay for any tickets for his supporters this year, I think it’s very telling that he still garnered more votes than Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain did combined when they didn’t compete in the 2007 Ames straw poll.

UPDATE: A married couple, who supported Mitt during the 2007 Ames Straw Poll, showed up to vote today wearing the yellow t-shirts he handed out four years ago:

Jacqui Norman and her husband were both sporting yellow Romney t-shirts left over from a different time four years ago, when Romney was focused like a laser on winning the Ames straw poll.

“We’ve had lots of people come up and ask us where we got our t-shirts, because they wanted to find them,” said Norman, a 40-year-old from Ames who volunteered for Romney’s previous campaign. “We had a couple dozen stickers left over, so we gave those to some people.”

More groundwork is being laid for Governor Romney in Florida, a state that plays a critical role in the GOP’s presidential election cycle. Today’s news comes from Broward Co:

Mitt Romney campaign starts to take shape in Broward

Several Republican committeemen are forming the nucleus of the Mitt Romney for president campaign in Broward.

Chairman of the effort is David Di Pietro, an attorney with the Conrad & Scherer law firm. (One of those names, Bill Scherer, is a big time national Republican fundraiser.)

Joining Di Pietro as co-chairman is Bob Wolfe, founder and past president of the Lauderdale Beach Republican Club.

Rocky Rodriguez, Broward’s former appointed property appraiser, and Troy R. Samuels, a Miramar city commissioner, are on the executive committee. Rodriguez and Samuels were the co-chairmen of Romney’s 2008 campaign in Broward.

They haven’t yet had an official rollout from the Romney campaign, but they’ve already been meeting, had a table set up Monday night outside the Broward Republican Party’s monthly meeting, and Di Pietro announced the group to party committeemen and committeewomen.
[...]
“I think it says a lot about Mitt’s campaign that we’re already organized,” Di Pietro told the Republican Party. “I believe Mitt Romney is the only candidate in our primary who can beat President Obama.”

(my emphasis)

Show your support for ‘Broward for Mitt’ on Facebook and Twitter.

(One tweet: “Exciting meeting with Broward’s Team Romney tonight! Let the partying (and work) begin!”)

Romney named Brian Ballard as his Florida Finance Co-Chair on July 13th. Recent polls show Romney is winning among his GOP competitors in The Sunshine State. He also leads Obama there by 46% to 42%.


► Jayde Wyatt

The six hundred attendees at Ohio’s annual GOP dinner participated in a straw poll for their preferred 2012 GOP candidate. The winner – Mitt Romney, with 25%. If Romney is well liked in the Buckeye State that would be welcome news for the Romney campaign as no Republican has ever won the white house without winning Ohio in the general election, according to the Columbus Dispatch.

Poll results:
25% Romney
16% Pawlenty
15% Bachmann
14% Perry (write-in)
9% Paul
5% Cain
5% Santorum
3% Gingrich
2% Huntsman
6% All other write-in combined.

Greeting from Ohio, Governor Romney.

I’m especially impressed Gov. Romney won this straw poll considering he isn’t actively competing in any of the straw polls. For Mitt to do as well as he did at CPAC when other campaigns were spending money trying to win the straw poll and then for Mitt to win this one in Ohio speaks volumes.