Romney Leaps to GOP Lead in Iowa.

HeavyM writes on Race42008.com:

McCain’s choice to skip the county conventions in South Carolina are really starting to hurt him. First it was a state Representative who had endorsed McCain but voted for Romney in the Horry County straw poll – and said he may switch his endorsement in the future. He was confused as to why McCain wasn’t there, which was a good question – Romney had attended the same dinner earlier in the day as McCain and still managed to make it down to South Carolina.

Now, there’s a local endorser who actually has jumped ship over to Camp Romney, in part because of McCain’s absence:

Saluda County Sheriff Jason Booth jumped to Romney’s campaign on Wednesday, and other party officials have questioned the candidate skipping their county conventions. McCain’s campaign had no immediate comment on Booth’s switch.

Welcome to the team, Sheriff Booth! McCain’s South Carolina organization is in danger right now, and by the time he makes it down there to re-kick off his campaign at the end of this month, he will have missed at least 20 more county conventions and straw polls.

And here’s the latest straw poll result from McCormick County’s convention this evening:

Romney – 35%
Cox – 19%
Giuliani – 16%
McCain – 13%
F Thompson – 8%
Newt – 3%
Undecided – 5%

1. IA – 17%, 3rd place behind McCain at just 21% now.
2. NH – 25% tied for 1st with McCain
3. SC –14%, moving up to third, Rudy at first with 26%
4. MI – 21%, 2nd

Is the Romney plan working?! Zogby polls seem to show that!

UPDATE: Hugh Hewitt warns of Zogby’s trappings

Zogby: Romney Rockets!

Latest New Hampshire telephone poll shows Romney’s support nearly doubles to 25% to tie McCain; Giuliani trails at 19%

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has rocketed to the top of the field of contenders for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary crown, running dead even with Arizona Sen. John McCain at 25% each, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows. With Romney’s ascension, the GOP presidential race looks just like the Democratic contest – a three–way battle!

While McCain has held mostly steady at the top of the Republican field in New Hampshire, losing just one point since January, Romney has made the big move up from 13% two months ago. Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York who is the toast of Republican primary voters nationally, finds himself in third place in the Granite State at 19% support, falling slightly from 20% in January to 19% this week.

Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator from Tennessee won 6% support in this latest survey of 502 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, which was conducted April 2-3, 2007, and contains a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

The common “who-would-you-vote-for-if-the-election-were-today” polls are not the best indicator of future success, especially this far out from the primary. After winning the CPAC straw poll and taking an early lead in endorsements and fundraising, Mitt Romney is showing that he is a force to be reckoned with. He is only lagging in name recognition with the general populace which is an obvious early advantage for McCain, Giuliani, Gingrich, and Fred Thompson. But let’s face it, all the candidates are flawed and most people have not started to pay serious attention to the candidates yet. Name recognition can only take you so far.

It doesn’t matter who you would vote for today. It really matters who you would NOT vote for today. These numbers are much harder to change.

According to the Diageo/Hotline poll on 3/23, Mitt Romney has the lowest negatives of all the candidates.

NEVER Vote For In GOP WH Primary?
John McCain 16%
George Pataki 15%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Jeb Bush 6%
Rudy Giuliani 6%
Chuck Hagel 5%
Bill Frist 5%
Tom Tancredo 4%
Condoleezza Rice 4%
George Allen 3%
Mitt Romney 2%
Undec/Oth 41%

Mitt Romney is a unique candidate in that he has a strong base already with little name recognition. He also is the only truly successful businessman in the field which will become very appealing to voters as they learn more about his success. This is what fascinated people about Ross Perot and Steve Forbes. Most people feel accomplished, successful business leaders are far more competent than politicians.

Scott Allan

EPIC-MRA poll of GOP voters, March 12-18, 2007

A lot of details at the link!

MMM reader Neal points out two stories about Mitt’s opponents.

1) Guliani and Chavez. From CNN.com:

At first glance, former New York Mayor and 2008 presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani wouldn’t seem to have much in common with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

One is considered one of the heroes in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, a leader who walked to ground zero while the World Trade Center towers smoldered. The other is a vehement anti-American who has called President Bush a “madman” and “the devil” and flaunts his association with longtime U.S. adversary Fidel Castro of Cuba.

But there is a link between the two, according to the Texas Ethics Commission. Giuliani’s law firm, Bracewell and Giuliani, is making money by lobbying American lawmakers on behalf of Citgo Petroleum Corp. of Houston. Citgo is the American subsidiary of Petroleos de Venezuela — the state-owned Venezuelan oil company.

2) FoxNews reports from Susan Estrich:

While Giuliani is riding high in the polls, and attracting the critics, John McCain is in the even less enviable position of sagging in the polls, and being asked to explain it. McCain has the Swift Boaters, literally some of the same ones, coming after him too, but on that front at least, he’s fortified by his standing as a former POW, which is pretty firm cement for the hero label.

MMM reader Will Munsil makes some astute observations about the CPAC straw poll
He has a very good looking site to boot!
http://timeforchoosing.com/node/111

1. Romney was the only candidate to finish in the top 2 in every segment of the conservative movement that he mentioned in his speech (1st in fiscal, 2nd in social, 2nd in national security)

2. Every other candidate has one (or more) areas of the conservative coalition that will under no circumstances choose them as their favorite, with the possible exception of McCain. For example, Brownback gets killed in fiscal and national security conservatives, Giuliani gets only 8% of social conservatives, etc)

3. Therefore, Romney is the only candidate with a legitimate chance of uniting fiscal, social, and national security conservatives to create the same kind of national coalition that Bush gathered. Nominating anyone else (again, with the possible exception of McCain, but I really don’t think he will win when stacked up against Romney’s relative youth, overwhelming charisma and optimism, etc) will cause segments of the GOP coalition to sit it out a little bit, causing President Hillary.

4. Romney’s stand-out performance among young voters will only get stronger. In my opinion, my generation looks for optimism, pragmatism and dynamism from their politicians (note Obama’s popularity among young Dems). Romney is the only Republican candidate who exemplifies all three of those traits. Romney, as his name and voice get out there, could be Obama-style popular among young Republicans.

http://timeforchoosing.com/node/111

Man this has been a busy week. We have so many great discussion points we almost need a mid-week review. So…

Polygamy in Spades
Jon responds to the AP hit piece early Monday.
Justin responded here noting that 3 generations does not a closet make.
(Both juicy with satire!)

Polls
What us worry… no way! 5 Reasons not to worry:
Ben Wren looks deeper into the Pew Polls
Romney still rules the endorsement race
Jason likes what the Hotline likes

PowerPoints
Here we point out the silliness that is the Boston Globe

Elsewhere…
Romney rakes in the DC dough
Sheriff Joe likes pink underwear and Romney!
Are you going to be at CPAC, let us know?

And of course – the MittCast rolls on… are you a subscriber (FREE)?

Oh… and these guys are going to vote for who again?

There has been a lot of jive-talk in the blogosphere (can I say jive-talk?) about Mitt Romney having a bad week. I indicated to a few people last week that he has the endorsement edge and probably the money edge as well; he organized a robust South Carolina team and a very solid Georgia team.

“Oh,” I say in realization, “you mean he had a bad week in the blogosphere?!” Here are the facts of where we stand and why I’m not worried (and I’m not worried for different reasons than those that help Dean Barnett sleep well.

1) Nobody but political junkies are paying attention to the election right now. – Accoding to a Pew Research Report just 24% of Republicans are paying attention to the 2008 race right now.

2) The early polls reflect name recognition not voting decisions - For example, in late February 2003 Joe Liberman was leading the Democratic contendors.

3) Romney is better positioned than past candidates at this point in the race. Let me draw you a picture:

For the dark horse candidates at this point in the race (especially pointing out Governors from small states) Carter was at 1% in 1975; DUkakis 1%; Clinton 2% in 1992. Even McCain stood at just 3% in 1999. Once again, name recognition does not a primary make.

4) Romney has STRONG favorability ratings among voters who have heard about him. A recent Quinnipiac poll clocked this number at 83%.

5) How about what really matters – the KEY primary states? – Let’s take Iowa and New Hampshire:

Romney’s polling at this point is even more impressive when you consider that his December 2006 numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire were 6% and 9%.

In short, this is a historically excellent start for a no-name small-state governor running for President.