Interesting info leaks today from two polling sources, both – incredibly – showing Mitt Romney ahead of potential 2012 rivals in their home states.

In Alaska, Mitt Romney edges Sarah Palin by 3%.
From PPP:

If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012 she can’t count on a whole lot of support back home. 62% of Alaska Republicans are opposed to her making a White House bid and she gets only 17% in a hypothetical 2012 primary in the state tying for her second with Mike Huckabee behind Mitt Romney.

It’s not that Alaska Republicans don’t like Palin- a majority of them still do. But there’s a significant disconnect between GOP voters in the state liking Palin and thinking she should run for President, a divide we’ve seen with Republicans nationally and one that presents the biggest threat to a possible Palin candidacy. Even among voters with a favorable opinion of Palin in the state just 39% think she should launch a 2012 bid.

Romney gets 20% to 17% for Palin and Huckabee, 16% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

In Minnesota, Mitt Romney pummels Tim Pawlenty by 13%.
From MPR:

The poll also compared Pawlenty the two most prominent, presumed front-runners for the Republicans in 2012 — former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Romney fared better than Pawlenty with likely Minnesota voters, 45 percent to 32 percent, while Pawlenty easily beat Palin in the hypothetical matchup, 59 percent to 24 percent.

*It’s worth noting that this last poll was extracted from all likely voters, Republicans & Democrats alike.

Any thoughts on these results? Could these be accurate depictions of the primary to come? Is it possible that anyone could swipe a victory from Mitt in his native Michigan?

~Aaron G.

A new Zogby poll shows voters prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama and Michael Bloomberg in a hypothetical three-way race. Independent voters, small business owners, voters who pay federal income taxes, and Tea Party voters strongly prefer Romney.

Today from NewsMax.com:

Washington, D.C. — If the 2012 presidential election were held today, and the race was between Democrat President Barack Obama, Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg running as an independent, Romney would prevail. This according to a recent poll conducted August 20-23 by Zogby International of 2,062 likely voters.

The poll asked:

If the election for President in 2012 were held today and the candidates were President Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney running as the Republican nominee, and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg running as an Independent, for whom would you vote?

Romney would win the election with 42 percent of the vote, barely edging out President Obama, who would garner 41 percent of the vote. Bloomberg would receive 6 percent of the vote.

Among independent voters, 40 percent would choose Romney and 30 percent would vote for Obama. Just 11 percent would pull the lever for Bloomberg.

Romney would also hold a significant edge over both rivals among small business owners, with 49 percent voting for Romney, 32 percent voting for Obama, and only 5 percent of small business owners voting for Bloomberg.

Tea party supporters would overwhelmingly support Romney in this three-way race, with 84 percent siding with the former Massachusetts governor, and just 2 percent voting for Obama and 1 percent voting for Bloomberg.

There is one just one area where voters preferred Obama over Romney; those who don’t have any skin in the game:

However, among those voters who do not have to pay federal income taxes – either because their income level is below the taxable threshold, or their deductions negate any tax liability – President Obama would receive the most support. Among the non-taxpayers, Obama would get 47 percent of the vote, Romney would get 32 percent, and Bloomberg would get 4 percent.

The Zogby International poll was commissioned by The O’Leary Report newsletter. The Poll surveyed 2,062 likely voters August 20-23, and has a margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 2.2 percentage points.

My feeling is that Zogby, wanting to include a third party candidate that may have a fair amount of appeal to independents, chose Bloomberg. It’s significant that, even with a third party detractor factored in, Romney still beats Obama.

► Jayde Wyatt

Mitt Romney’s friend and colleague, Meg Whitman, is ahead of Jerry Brown in the California Gubernatorial race to become the next Governor of California.  A Rasmussen poll released today is showing that Meg Whitman now leads Jerry Brown by eight percentage points:

“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California finds Whitman earning 48% support, while Democrat Jerry Brown picks up 40% of the vote. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.”

“When leaners are included in the new totals, Whitman posts a 51% to 43% lead over Brown. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.

Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.”

Two new polls have come out recently showing that Mitt Romney is in the lead among various pollsters.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation conducted a poll in which they asked Republicans participating in the survey to choose among a list of nine potential GOP White House hopefuls.  Among the nine potential 2012 candidates, Mitt Romney is at the top.  Moreover, it found that who ever becomes the 2012 nominee would have the edge over President Barack Obama if the election were held today.

The poll found that of the nine potential 2012 candidates, 21% of those who participated in the survey supported Mitt Romney, 18% voted for Sarah, 15% chose Newt Gingrich and  only 10% wanted Ron Paul.  Gov. Haley Barbour, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and Rep. Mike Pence each received a meager 3% of support and Sen. Rick Santorum got a tiny 2% of the vote.

Not only did the CNN poll find that Mitt was ahead but that he is very popular among Tea Party Republicans:

“More than half of all Republicans we questioned consider themselves Tea Party supporters or active members of the Tea Party movement,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Romney tops the list among Tea Party Republicans; Gingrich is next on that list and Palin is in third.”

Another poll conducted by the  Clarus Research Group, which was not sponsored or paid for by any client, candidate or political party, asked those who participated in the poll to choose from a list of eleven potential GOP candidates that they would most likely to support.  The results of the poll found that although the field is wide open for Republican candidates in 2012,  Mitt Romney has taken the lead among those who participated in the poll.  Here are the results:

Mitt Romney	26
Mike Huckabee	21
Newt Gingrich	14
Sarah Palin	12
Tim Pawlenty	3
Lamar Alexander	3
Haley Barbour	2
Mitch Daniels	1
John Thune	1
Other (volunteered)	2
Undecided/not sure	15

~Jared A.

I try to be selective of which polls we push here at this site. Some polls are just not significant, while some are more relevant but so widespread that we couldn’t possibly make a dent in it. Then there are some that are just right. This poll, again from Gretawire, is one of those. We did an excellent job pushing the last one from Greta – let’s see what we can do with this one.

Greta says in her post that these are random pairings… I’ll say. It doesn’t get more random than Romney/Abbott. Abbott? Apparently he is the Texas attorney general, or something. I’ll be honest I have no idea what his first name is.

Thanks for voting everyone. Romney 2012!!

~Nate Gunderson

FYI – Tallies at the time of posting this poll: Gingrich 884, Daniels 261, Palin 795, Romney 840

It’s only 5 days until the Georgia Primary showdown and Greta wants to know which endorsements we think are the most “politically strong”. Huckabee recently endorsed Nathan Deal in the race for the Georgia Gubernatorial nomination, while Romney and Palin had previously endorsed Karen Handel. (Jayde wrote about the endorsement here.)

We’ve embedded Greta’s poll here for your convenience, so get your vote on (for Romney, obviously)!

Update by Ross: I’m not sure why Greta left Gingrich out of this. It’s really Gingrich/Huckabee vs. Romney/Palin.

According to a PPP poll (667 participants), Mitt Romney leads the pack of GOP 2012 contenders in two important areas. The new poll affirms claims that Mitt may be the strongest candidate for the GOP in a general election. This is what they found:

1 – Mitt Romney is the favorite among Obama supporters who are displeased with Obama’s job performance:

Among the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but don’t approve of his job performance:
-Mitt Romney’s favorability is 32/31 (+1)
-Newt Gingrich’s is 32/40 (-8)
-Mike Huckabee’s is 20/39 (-19)
-Sarah Palin’s is 33/63 (-30)

It seems that Mitt has been well advised in his “non-campaigning” approach. He has been plenty critical of Obama and his policies, but his “attacks” have been strictly matter-of-fact, nothing personal or divisive. This seems a strong way to win over independents – make your arguments compelling and sincere, while not being reactionary or overly sensational. It’s the low-high profile tactic. Mitt has been called the only adult in the room on a number of occasions. Perhaps it’s because he keeps a cool head and continues to methodically “stick to the plan.” It’s the strategy of a front-runner.

2 – Mitt Romney leads GOP contenders in head-to-head polling against Obama:

Governor Romney gets a +3 percent over Obama in a match-up. This margin puts him ahead of the GOP pack, though the others aren’t far behind. The numbers:

• Romney vs Obama: 46 – 43 (+3)
• Huckabee vs Obama: 47 – 45 (+2)
• Gingrich vs Obama: 46 – 45 (+1)
• Palin vs Obama: 46 – 46 (0)

Amongst independents Romney wins 48 – 35 (+13). Two years ago those numbers would have been reversed. Is this evidence that people are starting to take off the ObamaGoggles™? I’m actually glad to see the whole group is doing well against Obama. I like Romney the most by far, but the most important thing is that Obama doesn’t get another 4 year term.

Go Mitt!

~Nate Gunderson

-All the fun (or tedious) cross-tabs can be found at the original poll: (PDF)

UPDATE: Mark B. Lowe has some graphs and history perspective with this poll at RightOSphere.com

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee continue to vie for the lead in the June National GOP nomination poll from Public Policy Polling. The favorable/unfavorable ratings for Mitt looks good, as does his overall polling. As in previous months Sarah Palin’s favorable ratings are the highest of any candidate but continues to lag in polling. What is most clear is that there is no clear front-runner thus far – 2012 could shape out to be a very tight race depending on who actually enters the race.

To view full polling results with cross-tabs click here.

Candidate	National Poll	Favorable Opinion	Unfavorable Opinion	Difference
Mitt Romney	25%	57%	14%	+43%
Mike Huckabee	22%	53%	15%	+39%
Sarah Palin	19%	67%	18%	+49%
Newt Gingrich	15%	58%	18%	+40%
Ron Paul	6%	29%	25%	+4%
Someone else	5%	-	-	-
Undecided	6%	-	-	-

~Nate G.

Early polling from PPP indicates that there is still no clear front-runner for the 2012 race. I find the numbers very interesting but can’t help but feel they may be very far from what will really happen as I’m very doubtful that all five (Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee, Romney, and Paul) will be running. In fact I would wager that only 2 or 3 of those will actually be running, and 2 or 3 other candidates not mentioned will run as well, ie. Mike Pence, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, or Rick Santorum.

In my view the problem with these polls is that Gingrich is not going to run. No matter what he does or says, or where he’s at in the polls, I won’t believe that Gingrich will run until the moment he actually files papers to form an exploratory committee. In 2008, he toyed with the idea, gave hints etc., just the same as he is doing now. He eventually let on that he would run if he was essentially drafted into doing so by some sweeping ground-swell of grassroots support, which never happened.

Gingrich, as well as Romney, Huckabee and Palin, have much to gain in terms of name ID and national stardom, AS LONG AS they continue to flirt with the possibility of making a 2012 run. The same is true for T-Paw, Daniels or whoever. There is just something about running for president that sparks people’s interest in who you are. Otherwise we might have never known who Sam Brownback or Tom Tancredo are. But Gingrich knows, as do the others, that the minute they completely rule out running in 2012, and convince of that fact, they are no longer as interesting to the public eye and will be found in less demand for the daily news cycles.

Am I wrong on Gingrich? Anyone have hard evidence that he is running? Let me know please, I don’t want to be completely blindsided by it if he does run.

So, here are the numbers from the PPP poll:

Iowa:

Candidate	Base	Mod.	Cons.	Female	Male	18-29	30-45	46-65	65+
Huckabee	27%	26	28	34	21	38	21	32	19
Palin	17%	17	16	15	18	15	14	21	11
Gingrich	16%	10	19	17	15	15	22	11	21
Romney	15%	20	14	11	18	8	12	13	23
Ron Paul	7%	9	7	3	11	8	12	5	5
DeMint	2%	2	1	2	1	8	-	1	1
Thune	2%	-	3	1	3	-	3	2	1
Someone Else	3%	6	2	3	4	-	5	4	2
Undecided	11%	9	11	13	9	8	10	9	16

South Carolina:

Candidate	Base	Mod.	Cons.	Female	Male
Gingrich	25%	11	29	22	27
Romney	24%	33	21	22	25
Palin	22%	23	21	27	17
Huckabee	19%	12	21	20	18
Ron Paul	7%	12	6	4	10
Undecided	4%	10	1	5	3

Michigan:

Candidate	Base	Mod.	Cons.	Female	Male	18-29	30-45	46-65	65+
Romney	37%	56	32	45	31	10	39	38	42
Palin	24%	8	29	22	26	50	20	19	30
Gingrich	16%	11	19	7	24	10	15	19	15
Huckabee	12%	14	13	17	8	20	17	13	3
Ron Paul	6%	8	6	3	9	-	7	6	6
Undecided	4%	3	2	6	3	10	2	5	3

Romney showing in 4th in Iowa, but it looks like it’s essentially a 3-way tie for second. He’s in a close second in South Carolina, but my guess is that poll may be entirely inaccurate. It’s no surprise that he continues to lead Michigan in a dominating fashion. What I will note is that the 65+ crowd seems to love Romney… perhaps because they are the oldest and the wisest.

~Nate Gunderson

After an entire year of being the underdog in South Carolina’s gubernatorial race, Nikki Haley has suddenly captured the lead!

She may owe this abrupt jump in polls to some really big endorsements, including initial nods from Mitt Romney, Jenny Sanford, and Erick Erickson of RedState -- followed by the more recent endorsement of the rogue herself, Sarah Palin.

More from the Washington Post:

State legislator Nikki Haley seizes the lead in the four-way GOP primary for governor of South Carolina. An automated Rasmussen poll of 912 Republicans has Haley surging from 12 to 30 percent support in a month, leapfrogging the state’s attorney general, lieutenant governor and a congressman, all with more money and institutional support. One reason, as I posted last week — Gov. Mark Sanford’s (R-S.C.) political PAC reactivated recently and spent $400,000 on sunny Haley TV ads.

This is only one Rasmussen poll, and unless a candidate scores 50 percent of the vote he or she goes to a run-off, but what would a Haley win mean? It would be a massive victory for the conservative grass roots, especially RedState, which have promoted her endlessly. And it would be a boon for Mitt Romney, who won Haley’s endorsement in 2008, endorsed her this year, and would obviously be expected to win it in 2012.

Just yesterday, Romney’s PAC sent out this reminder to all Facebook Fans and Twitter followers:

With the South Carolina gubernatorial primary election less than three weeks away, a new Rasmussen poll now shows Nikki Haley leading her closest opponent by 11 points. Nikki Haley represents a new generation of conservative leadership for South Carolina. Please consider supporting her campaign.”

Check out her new TV ad:

Nikki Haley’s Facebook -- http://www.facebook.com/NikkiHaleyforGovernor
Nikki Haley’s Twitter -- http://twitter.com/nikkihaley

~Luke G.