Will Mitt Romney Win? Take the Pulse of the Campaign (#Video)

Do you feel at all nervous? I do. What is the best way to work off the nervous energy? We cannot afford to be complacent or to take anything for granted right now. Convert that energy to action here.

Want to take the pulse from inside the Romney camp? This is a good one from Rich Beeson, Governor Romney’s political director. Check it:

“Significant Gap”

“There is going to be a widespread repudiation of the Obama administration.”

Let’s do all we can for Governor Romney today, tomorrow, and Tuesday! Are you seeing how hard Governor Romney is working out there? It is hard to keep up with him, but we can. You can. Let’s do it.

[THANK YOU to Annette Scafati for getting this video to MRC.]


American Values: “In God We Trust” — “Liberty” — “E Pluribus Unum”

Twitter Follow: @VicLundquist – Dedicated to all members of The United States military and their families

NEW POLL: Romney Takes the Lead in Crucial Ohio!

As someone who has done a fair share of door knocking and phone calling throughout Ohio, I couldn’t be more happy with the latest polling results from Rasmussen, which have America’s Comeback Team edging out America’s Sorry-Excuse-for-a-President Team by two points!

You can really feel the momentum here in Ohio as the crowds at Romney events swell to over-capacity and front yard across suburbia are peppered with Romney signs.

The result of this pull validate that feeling:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided.

And the internal numbers suggest even more movement toward Mitt!
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New Gallup Poll Should Have Chicago Sweating…Profusely

SPOILER ALERT: In this post I’ll tell you why polls are looking very good for Mitt, but will also conclude by saying it only matters if we all dig in, do our part to get out the vote. So click the “ComMITTed” link!

I’ve now seen three commentaries on the latest Gallup poll, and they’re telling a consistent story: Chigago is, or should be, sweating profusely about these latest polling numbers. And the evidence is they are.

The Eye Candy: National Polls.

National polls are great and continue to give encouraging news of a Mitt 2-4% lead. The RealClearPolitics average of polls gives Mitt a solid 1% edge. The latest poll in that group, a Rasmussen poll of 1,500 likely voters from October 25 to October 27 (yesterday), gives Mitt a 3% lead. The underlying data show Mitt is winning more Republicans (90%) than Obama is Democrats (85%), but the big news on the national front is that Mitt is leading among independents by 11%. But national polls are really the eye candy of the presidential politics. Fun to look at, but in the end, not what will make the difference.

Where the Rubber Meets the Road: State Polls

What’s really important, as we all know, is what happens in the electoral college. So what about those swing states? Well, there’s good news there, too, even if there’s lots of work to be done. Rasmussen’s electoral college map, based on Rasmussen’s own polling in each state, shows Mitt leading or tied in the critical swing states of Florida (50%/48%), Virginia (50%/47%), Colorado (50%/46%), Iowa (48%/48%), New Hampshire (50%/48%), Wisconsin (49%/49%) and, perhaps most importantly, Ohio (48%/48%). Given Mitt was behind in these states a couple weeks ago, and the press’ coronation of Obama as the narrow winner of the last two debates, the trends here are in the right direction: Mitt is gaining when it counts, and Mitt has an ability to improve, while Obama, who the voters have known for four years, is more likely to drop. Other states are also narrowing: Minnesota and Pennsylvania are closer than expected, if still leaning Obama. And no one thought Wisconsin would be tied a few weeks ago. If you don’t like Rasmussen’s numbers, you can turn to RealClearPolitics’ collection of polls and resulting electoral college map. RCP reports similar numbers for each of those states. It shows Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire in a closer race, with Obama having a slight lead in Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio, with Mitt continuing to make inroads.

So national and state polling shows it’s a very close race, Obama has a miniscule and shrinking lead in states he needs to win, and Mitt is either tied or within easy striking distance in all the same states. Very encouraging for a challenger.

But…there’s more.

The Zinger: the Latest Gallup Poll

The real story is that Gallup poll. Neil Stevens of Red State dissects Gallup’s numbers and says:

We always talk about the independent, swing vote in elections because those tend to be the persuadables. But party ID numbers matter as well, because those partisan voters tend to split better than 90/10 for their party.

It is for that reason that Gallup’s new partisan ID split, one that mimics what Rasmussen has been saying all along, predicts nothing less than doom for the Democrats, and a solid, national win for Mitt Romney this year.

…the numbers are brutal. In 2008, the Democrats had a 39-29 (D+10) advantage in hard party ID, and a 54-42 (D+12) advantage with leaners. In 2012 though, we’re in the post-TEA party era. Republicans now show a 36-35 (R+1) hard party ID advantage, and a 49-46 (R+3) lead with leaners. This gives us a range of party ID swings from 2008, from R+11 to R+15.

[Emphasis added.]

What does this mean? In a tight election with key swing states on the edge and voter turnout key, more of those voters self-identifying as Republicans than Democrats this year means things may be better than they look on the surface of the polls. Mr. Stevens then goes further and says what these numbers would mean if plugged into his own electoral college model. It generates an estimate of the electoral college results if more voters self-ID as Republican versus his baseline year. Here’s the picture:


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Mitt Romney’s Favorability Surges as He Strips Obama’s Curtain Away

Five days ago, several polls (including a liberal one) reported that Romney’s favorability rating has surged past Obama’s:

And late Thursday, the Pew Research Center, the poll that has been toughest on Romney’s favorability, released results showing that Romney is ahead of Obama by a point, 50 percent to 49 percent. That is a stunning turnaround from March, when Obama’s favorable rating in Pew was about twice Romney’s, 55 percent to 29 percent.

Pundits from the mainstream media love to point out that rarely if ever does a presidential candidate get elected when their favorability number is below that of their opponent. Until this week, Obama’s rating has been higher than Romney’s all year long. What changed? Mr. Obama poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the media to paint Governor Romney in a negative light most of 2012. Then Americans got to know Mitt Romney, the man, starting with the first debate (see graph above). Both Romney and Obama experienced a dip in their ratings from last week’s intense debate of confrontation. I am guessing we will see a dramatic positive change for Governor Romney after Monday’s debate in which Obama employed sophomoric attacks against a calm, gentleman opponent.

The Washington Times also reported:

“The debates — especially the first one — destroyed the Obama crew’s strategy of disqualification,” said Republican pollster Mike McKenna. “Six months of work and $400 million of ad buys went up in smoke in about 10 days. With less than 340 hours to go, they are having real trouble with their footing.”

The debates’ effect can be seen in the favorability ratings. At the end of September, ahead of the debates, Mr. Romney had a 44.5 percent favorable rating. But by Monday, when he and Mr. Obama faced off for the third and final time, the Republican’s rating had leapt to 50.5 percent.

Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, said Mr. Romney’s favorability surge “really has been remarkable” and explains why Mr. Obama has not been able to put away the race at this point.
[...]
By Tuesday, Mr. Romney’s favorability average at Real Clear Politics had dropped below 50 percent again, though he still leads Mr. Obama when it comes to net favorability — the calculation of favorable rating minus unfavorable rating.

Mr. Obama’s favorability averaged 49.7 percent, or 4.5 points more than his unfavorable rating. Mr. Romney’s favorability was 49.3 percent, or 6.5 points more than his unfavorable rating.
[...]
John Zogby, a pollster for The Washington Times, said Mr. Romney’s favorability surge is a significant development in the race.

“Voters got to see an option. Now that there is an option, Romney is viewed as favorably as Obama as a person,” he said.

[emphasis added]

Could it also be that America is finally seeing Barack Obama, the man, for who he really is? A person that allows his ego and pride to blind him from perceiving reality? Why is it that article after article from the Left and the Right frequently use words now such as arrogant, condescending, petulant, hubris, etc., when referring to Barack Obama? In his weekly WSJ column last week, William McGurn wrote an outstanding article titled, The Wizard of Obama. Excerpts:

Mostly this image was the making of his own immodesty, starting the night he clinched the 2008 Democratic nomination. Mr. Obama might have simply declared victory and congratulated Hillary Clinton on a valiant fight. Instead it became the backdrop for one of his more infamous egoisms. History, he said, would look back at his victory as the moment “the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”

This was no aberration. A man who interviewed for a job on the campaign was told by Mr. Obama: “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.”

Everything about his campaign fed that idea. The Styrofoam Greek columns at the Democratic convention when he was nominated. The faux presidential seal with its own Latin motto. And before the campaign, the two books he authored about—himself.

The press, far from exhibiting any skepticism about this immodesty, bowed before it.
[...]
An editor at Politico (and veteran of the Washington Post) put it this way: “I have witnessed the phenomenon several times. Some reporters need to go through detox, to cure their swooning over Obama’s political skill.”
[...]
In short, Mr. Obama was the man who declared that he would change the thinking of the Muslim world by the mere fact of his election, restore science to its rightful place, and win what he called the “necessary war” in Afghanistan.

And then came this month’s debate in Denver.

That night, the American people watched “the smartest guy in the room” struggle to put together a simple declarative sentence, and then ask the moderator to move onto another topic after Mitt Romney had given a strong statement about jobs and growth and tax revenues.

Some 67 million Americans were watching on TV. What they saw was the scene from the Wizard of Oz, when Dorothy’s dog pulls back the curtain to reveal there is no wizard at all, just a man from the Midwest who pumped himself up into something far beyond his mortal self—and got the whole of Oz to believe it.

[emphasis added]

“The whole of Oz” now sees the little man who once stood tall behind his protective curtain. Or is it the emperor without clothes whose reign draws to a close?

Photo: Saul Loeb / AFP / Getty Images



American Values: “In God We Trust” — “Liberty” — “E Pluribus Unum”

Twitter Follow: @VicLundquist – Dedicated to all members of The United States military and their families

Why Mitt “Wins the War”

PPP did a snap poll immediately after the debate tonight. The respondents scored it a slight lead for Obama at 53% to 42% (yeah, it was another +6% Democratic oversample and PPP is a democratic pollster … but I think that just strengthens my arguments). That 11% edge is smaller than the numbers Obama got in the 2nd debate, and MUCH smaller than the numbers Mitt received after the 1st debate. (FYI … CNN’s snap poll scored tonight’s debate it a bit closer at 48%-40% in favor of Obama).

That’s bad news then, right?!?! … that Romney didn’t “win” the debate? Not at all. Mitt continued to rise in the national and swing-state polls over the last week despite Obama’s “win” in the last debate. The last two days especially, Democrats have been shocked and are panicking that the President didn’t get a bounce in the polls from that.

Here’s the secret though … People’s judging of who “wins” debates is solely based on who is the most aggressive candidate that night. Snap polls showed that Joe Biden “won” the VP debate over Paul Ryan … but Biden turned off MANY voters with his style and condescension. Obama wasn’t as bad as Biden was, but his intimidating stares, his incessant attacks at Romney, and his petty condescension will NOT play well with undecided voters … especially with undecided women.

Don’t believe me? That same PPP poll linked above has the following interesting question and cross-tab.

“Did the debate tonight make you more or less likely to vote for BO/MR, or did it not make a difference?”

Among Independents for Obama: More likely 32%, Less likely 48%, No Difference 20% … for a net of MINUS 16%

Among Independents for Romney: More likely 47%, Less likely 35%, No Difference 18% … for a net of PLUS 12%

That’s a HUGE advantage among Independents for Romney based on TONIGHT’S debate. Yeah, Obama sure “won” tonight, eh? Team Romney is fighting to “Win The War” … and will take some lumps in individual battles to make sure the end goal occurs. He was confident, optimistic, and Presidential. Obama was petty, insulting, and snarky. Quite the contrast!

In the CNN snap poll mentioned above (which was a +4% D sample) asked:

“Who did the debate make you more likely to vote for?”
Romney 26%
Obama 25%

That is THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION IN THE POLL, really the only one that matters, and Mitt came out on top. Another interesting and important question from CNN:

“Who spent more time attacking his opponent?”
Barack Obama 68%
Mitt Romney 21%

Nothing happened tonight to blunt Mitt’s momentum. Obama was swinging for the fences, but failed to connect. Romney easily cleared the credible Commander-In-Chief bar and avoided ANY gaffes. His last few answers and rebuttals were awesome, and his closing statement was EPIC!

We need to work to help make sure it happens, but Mitt’s well on his way to winning this race. Romney has ALL the momentum, and that’s why Obama was attacking desperately. That alone was telling.

UPDATE 12:02 Central … Over at The Ace of Spades there’s an article “Romney Wins the War, Again” that looks like we copied one another. He published it 30 minutes earlier, but I swear I didn’t see it or steal his ideas. Maybe I’m ready to be a big shot blogger if we’re on the same wavelength like that, eh? :)

Liberals are No Longer Laughing at Romney on Pennsylvania!

Did you take notice? Pennsylvania is the name of the street where Mitt and Ann Romney will soon reside.

Over the last several months, pundits, politicos, and “experts” of all stripes had declared Pennsylvania not winnable for Governor Romney; it has been one of the most difficult of the 12 swing states. Remember this? It was not three weeks ago, in the dark pre-debate days of September that Governor Romney stated in a speech he would win Pennsylvania.

Photo: Associated Press

Polls are crazy animals. For this one reason, I have been reluctant to refer to them in my writing here in MRC. In fact, I would tell every reader of this post to simply ignore them completely going into November 6th. Why? Because, no matter which way the polls move, we need every man, woman, and child to get out the vote to make a difference. Or, in other words, the ONLY poll that matters is the one on November 6th. That said, this Pennsylvania poll is significant. The Washington Examiner published this article yesterday indicating Pennsylvania has moved hugely for Romney:

Susquehanna has traditionally shown a much tighter race between Obama and Romney than other polls, in part because it weighs its results by party registration. Firms that don’t do this tend to over-sample Democrats.

Weighting results in Pennsylvania is particularly important, Lee said, “because we know with a pretty good degree of certainty how many registered Republicans and Democrats are going to show up” on Election Day.

When I posted that Romney declaration on September 29th, my liberal friends literally laughed me to scorn when I sent it to them. I am not one to gloat so I will not send this news to them, but I am sending it to you.

A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.

Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.

It’s the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.

“The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it,” Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.

Romney isn’t spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, do whatever you have to do to assist in getting out the vote. I cannot emphasize enough how important this election is. None of us can take anything for granted.

*Contact Romney campaign headquarters in Pennsylvania here.


American Values: “In God We Trust” — “Liberty” — “E Pluribus Unum”

Twitter Follow: @VicLundquist – Dedicated to all members of The United States military and their families

Second Presidential POLL: Who Won the Debate?

The 2nd Presidential is now over. Time to sound off. Who won? What were your thoughts?

[poll id="5"]

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Women Alert: Obama Stealing Their Children’s Future, Romney Will Save It

(photographer unknown)

SHOCK!

HORROR…

for the Obama campaign.

Women are coming out in droves to support Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan!

Just last month Obama was favored by women by 18 points over Romney.

Yesterday, Gallup polling showed a virtual tie between the two candidates among female voters in battleground states:

Romney – 48%

Obama – 49%

Recent polling from Pew shows a tie with 47% of women preferring Romney and 47% for Obama.

What caused the dramatic change?

For the first time in this presidential campaign, 70 million Americans were able to see Romney WITHOUT MEDIA FILTER at the first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Women did not see the monster Obama and his minions have spent millions to portray. What they did see was someone who DID understand their worries and concerns. Romney related to them. They saw a true, competent, understanding leader with decisive plans to improve America, their lives, and with plans to stop the mountain of debt that will be foisted upon their children.

Good news:

9:06PM EDT October 15, 2012 – WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee has pulled within one point of the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads by 8 points among men.

Team Obama today had a hissy fit out about left-leaning Gallup’s findings and tried to discredit the numbers. Richard Eichenberg, a Tufts University political scientist who is studying gender differences in state-level polling with Elizabeth Robinson, explains why:

“Romney’s improved standing among female voters is likely to cause major consternation among Obama supporters. If Mr. Romney has tied President Obama among women in swing states, then he has likely taken a step toward winning the election.”

(photographer unknown)

Obama’s false meme of a Republican War on Women? Romney has proven that FALSE. He cares deeply about the challenges women face and America’s children. Romney is closing the gender gap.

At tonight’s second presidential debate, expect to hear desperate droning from Obama on abortion and contraception.

Women are awakening to the fact Obama that Obama is stealing their children’s future. They are learning that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan can pull America back from the brink and save the American Dream for their progeny.

Bring it home for us tonight, Governor Romney!

Follow Jayde Wyatt on Twitter @YayforSummer

Debate Impact: New Poll Shows Romney Up Big in Florida

Romney Opens Large, Sunshine State Lead

As we anticipate the thumping that Paul Ryan will give to Joe Biden momentarily, let’s have a look at the effect that last week’s presidential debate had on the polling numbers in Florida.

Tampa Bay Times has the scoop:

Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance last week has dramatically altered the presidential race in Florida, with Mitt Romney opening up a decisive 7 percentage point lead, according to a new Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll.

The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a “bad night” at the first debate.

The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate.

“There’s no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners.

Across the board, from who is better suited to improve the economy, to who will protect Medicare, to looking out for the middle-class, to handling foreign policy, likely Florida voters now favor the former Massachusetts governor over the president.

See what happens when President Obama has to account for his failures on the national debate stage?

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