Karl ‘The Architect” Rove had an op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal titled, Don’t Get Cocky, GOP.

In the article, Rove points out the difficulty in unseating a sitting President who decides to seek a second term. He points out that Since World War II, three have been defeated for re-election and two decided not to run again. But five sought and won second terms.

He offers the following advice and predicts that whoever wins the GOP nomination in 2012 will be the candidate that does the better of the following 3 tasks:

1. Create a compelling narrative for why Mr. Obama deserves to be replaced, why voters should pick him or her as the replacement, and where he or she seeks to lead the country.




2. Demonstrate the strength, values, decision-making capacity and leadership to take on the responsibilities of the world’s most powerful and important job. Voters need to be able to visualize someone in the Oval Office before they will give them their support.




3. Finally, the candidate who ultimately wins the nomination is likely to be the one who shows the greatest ability to unite the party and draw others into the GOP fold.

I thought it might be interesting to have our readers comment on where you feel your favorite or least favorite candidate STACKS UP in his/her ability to best Rove’s 3 suggestions. Give examples in their pasts that could indicate the ability and skills of achieving these goals.

I’ve only included the BIG 4′s pictures in this post for the sake of space. Feel free to discuss any potential candidate and his/her strengths, weaknesses, and/or experience they may have to achieve Rove’s tasks.

From Gallup:
In general, Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) are at least twice as likely to identify as conservative as they are to identify as moderate or liberal. Thus, it is crucial for any potential Republican candidate to appeal to conservatives, especially given the Tea Party movement’s influence in deciding nominations for Congress in 2010.

More information about the poll can be found HERE.

Just as the dems are trying to recover from the midterm ‘shellacking’, Republicans are gearing up to extend that shellacking all the way to the White House. Chris Cillizza, from the “The Fix“, reminds us who the most capable ‘shellacker’ is in his latest presidential power ranking line-up. Mitt Romney maintains the top position as most influential leader within the Republican party heading into the 2012 primaries.

“These rankings come from conversations with a variety of Republican strategists — those aligned with potential candidates and those not — as well as an analysis of fundraising potential, quality of staff, name identification, organizational ability and natural on-the-stump talent.

Top Influential Republicans and Possible 2012 Contenders

Here is what he had to say about Mitt Romney:

Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, spent the entire 2008 cycle trying to win over skeptics with a be-everywhere-do-everything, Energizer Bunny sort of approach to the presidential race. His style in advance of the 2012 race has been strikingly different; Romney has picked his issues — economic ones, mostly — carefully and avoided wading into every fight with President Obama or intraparty squabble. The goal seems clear: to make Romney look like the adult in the room. And, to date, it’s worked well — establishing him as a candidate of serious purposes who won’t be distracted by the shiny objects thrown in front of him. Romney also has, by far, the most intricate and able political and financial organization in the race — a machine that can instantly be turned on whenever he decides to announce for president. Challenges remain, most notably explaining to Republican primary voters why the healthcare bill he passed in Massachusetts is different from what Congress passed earlier this year.

Here is some video analysis:

h/t: Right Wingnut

Here is the full list of those that made the top ten:
1. Mitt Romney 2. Sarah Palin 3. Tim Pawlenty 4. Haley Barbour 5. John Thune
6. Newt Gingrich 7. Mitch Daniels 8. Mike Huckabee 9. Mike Pence 10. Marco Rubio

*The top five are pictured up above in order of their rank.

He’s on top, again.

When the clock struck 12:01 AM on November 3, 2010 – the focus on election 2012 began and those in the polling business aren’t missing a beat. Rasmussen recently revealed who likely voters prefer as the leading choice among likely GOP presidential candidates…

[...] Asked who they would vote for if the Republican presidential primary were held today, 20% say Romney, 19% Huckabee and another 19% Palin. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Romney and Palin are tied among male GOP voters, while Huckabee has a slight edge among female voters.

In October 2009 when Likely Republican primary voters were given a choice of five potential presidential nominees, Huckabee led with 29% support, followed by Romney with 24% of the vote and Palin at 18%.

Rounding out the list of seven candidates chosen by Rasmussen Reports for the question, with their levels of support, are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (13%), Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (6%), Texas Congressman Ron Paul (5%) and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (3%). Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

(emphasis mine)

New developments…

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), who wasn’t included in the Rasmussen survey, is resigning from his position as House Republican Conference Chairman – a signal that he’s readying for a 2012 run. Pence recently sent a letter to colleagues in which he stated:

“As we consider new opportunities to serve Indiana and our nation in the years ahead, I have come to realize that it may not be possible to complete an entire term as Conference Chairman. As such, I think it would be more appropriate for me to step aside now, especially since there are other talented men and women in our Conference who could do the job just as well or better.”

Tim Pawlenty has been sending strong signals for awhile now that he’s going to get in the race and is pitching his meat-packing, blue-collar background.

Another quirky twist in presidential scuttlebutt is that of a possible Donald Trump candidacy. He may or may not be serious about a go at the White House, but given our nation’s dire jobless situation, hearing what he has to say can’t hurt. Here’s video of Trump on Greta Van Susteren’s show (FOX News) last night offering his businessman’s perspective on America’s waning manufacturing sector, our unfair trade relationship with China, jobs going to Mexico, NAFTA, etc. (Trump echoes some of the same concerns regarding China that Mitt Romney has been warning of since 2007):

For additional news on potential GOP candidates, beginning tonight, Bret Baier is airing a series of profiles on a dozen potential GOP candidates for 2012. His series is called 12 in ’12. Governor Romney declined to be interviewed.

The details:

Special Report with Bret Baier is launching a 12-day series on the topic called “12 in ‘12″ that each day will feature a profile of one of 12 Republicans who may launch presidential bids for the 2012 race. Exclusive interviews with 11 of the 12 candidates are planned for the profiles, which begin Thursday evening.

Those candidates include: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, South Dakota Sen. John Thune, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

McPike reports, “A thirteenth story is also planned with long-shots such as former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, and others like Donald Trump.”

So, every possible 2012 Republican nominee covered? Looks like it. But Romney wasn’t willing to talk. “We’ve talked to them a number of times,” said Baier of Romney’s camp. “They’ve told me they are hesitant to do anything that has a 2012 connotation to it.”

So the series will air with no interview – although his 11 best competitors in two years will get to begin to make their case to the Fox News audience. Well, three of those 12 get to all the time, since they’re FNC contributors.

(emphasis mine)

Governor Romney has said many times that he would discuss 2012 considerations after midterm elections were over – possibly over the holidays – with his wife, Ann, and his family. This time around, it’s clear he’s going to do things his way.

► Jayde Wyatt

CNN got a jump on the 2012 election by doing some exit polling yesterday in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. I’m happy to report that Mitt Romney’s name was on the lips of many:

CNN – It’s after midnight, which means the 2010 vote is over…and the 2012 race is officially underway.

In exit polls Tuesday, Republicans in three key early-voting states were asked about four of their leading presidential contenders.

In Iowa, it appears Mike Huckabee’s still got a base: the former Arkansas governor is tied with Mitt Romney at 21 percent, with Sarah Palin close behind at 18 percent, and Gingrich nabbing single-digit support.

In New Hampshire, former Massachusetts governor Romney displays his home court advantage: he draws more support, at 39 percent, than the rest of his top rivals combined. Palin once again nabs 18 percent, Huckabee drops to 11 percent, and Gingrich stays in the single digits.

And in the key early-voting state of South Carolina – where Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney both endorsed Gov.-elect Nikki Haley in the GOP primary this year – Palin, Huckabee and Romney are again neck-and-neck. The former Alaska governor has support from 25 percent in Tuesday’s exit poll, followed by Huckabee at 24 and Romney at 20. Newt Gingrich polls at 10 percent.

In a nutshell…
Iowa: Romney 21%, Huckabee 21%, Palin 18%, Gingrich (single digit)
New Hampshire: Romney 39%, Palin 18%, Huckabee 11%, Gingrich (single digit)
South Carolina: Palin 25%, Huckabee 24%, Romney 20%, Gingrich 10%

H/t to buddy Bosman

► Jayde Wyatt

Romney Adds Conservative Muscle to 2010 Races (Photo by Michael Fagans / The Californian)

Without further delay, enjoy the read:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is grinding through the 2010 campaign state by state and district by district, adhering to a go-everywhere, never-say-no campaign schedule that will have recorded visits to 30 states before Election Day.

It’s an approach that sets him apart from other 2012 prospects in its plodding, comprehensive, Nixon-in-’66-like pace.

…

Romney’s schedule is so all-inclusive that it barely looks like he’s picking his targets. In just the past few weeks, he’s campaigned for Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson and gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal. He made a Western campaign trip that included stops for Idaho Gov. Butch Otter, Utah Gov. Gary Herbert, Nevada House candidate Joe Heck and gubernatorial nominee Brian Sandoval, among others. He also made a trip to Florida on Oct. 1 to boost Rick Scott — who won an upset victory over state Attorney General Bill McCollum, whom Romney campaigned for back in June — in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

Romney’s spreading his donations around widely, too: As of Sept. 30, he’d given $940,000 through his Free and Strong America PAC to 188 congressional candidates, two dozen Senate candidates and 20 Republicans running for governor, according to financial information obtained by POLITICO.

Much of that time and money is spent on party-building activities in states like Rhode Island, Maryland and Kansas — places of dubious value to most presidential candidates.

But by establishing himself as a force in states beyond the early-primary circuit of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, Romney’s cementing his role as a party leader and laying the groundwork for a potential nomination fight that lasts well past the first round of small-state elections.

It’s a strategy that recalls former President Richard Nixon’s slow climb back to power after he lost the presidency in 1960 and the California governor’s race two years later: Gearing up to run for president in 1968, Nixon simply outcampaigned his competitors with a frenzy of activity in the 1966 midterms.

Some interesting highlights:

“He’s using his PAC resources to create and cultivate relationships significantly down the primary calendar,” said one GOP consultant aligned with a potential Romney rival. “My hunch is that the thesis is that if it’s Romney versus someone else, which I think a lot of people think this race will winnow to, he wants to have the financial power and depth of relationships to be a candidate that endures.”

On Romney’s PAC:

“They understand the goal of fundraisers is to maximize contributions and minimize costs, so they don’t demand private planes and other costly things that legally must be paid for by the campaigns,” said Bob Honold, who handles incumbent retention for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “These midterms are all about jobs and the economy — topics right in Romney’s wheelhouse — so he’s perfect with big donors but also on the stump for members and candidates.”

On Romney’s Operation:

“I think his operation is, unquestionably, very strong,” said one Republican state lawmaker who has met with Romney and is undecided about whom to support in 2012. “He’s doing all the things, at a much higher level than anybody out there at this point.”

On the Early Primary States:

Romney’s not ignoring the early states: At the beginning of this month, he endorsed 38 candidates in Iowa and gave a total of $41,500 to their campaigns. He’s scheduled to visit the first-in-the-nation caucus state at the end of October, and, last month, he headlined a major state GOP event in New Hampshire.

On Mitt’s efforts in South Carolina:

“He’s done everything he possibly could.”

Read More…

One of my favorite videos on YouTube has the tag-line: “Bring America Back – Mitt Romney for President in 2012″. The video is included below in case you haven’t seen it yet or you just want something to put a little extra pep in your step.

Here at Mitt Romney Central, we’ve spent much of our energy covering many of the ways that Mitt Romney is working his keister off to elect conservative candidates around the county. People need look no further than the extensive list of candidates his Free & Strong America PAC is supporting for the upcoming elections. Mitt follows up most of his endorsements with monetary donations, physical appearances to raise the profile of these candidates and often raise even more money, and even share donor lists sometimes (I think).

Mitt is doing everything to Bring America Back like we want him to. However, the problems our country is facing require that as many of us as possible do what we can in our spheres of influence to help. All of us here at MRC want Mitt Romney to be our next President, but a President can only do so much. We need to elect as many conservative candidates to offices ranging from local city councils all the way up to Congress as we can.

This brings me to the big question that I hope many of you will answer in the comments of this post. With only three weeks left until the biggest election day until 2012, what are you personally doing to make a difference?

As you can see by looking at the Team here at MRC, we are spread out around the country and we are all focusing on some races closest to us where we can make a difference. I’d love to hear which races you are focusing on and what you’re doing to help those candidates win.

UPDATE: Just a day after we publish this piece, Politico has released a piece highlighting many specific ways that Mitt is helping conservatives around the country. Check it out for yourself here.

Before presidential candidates declare for 2012, as well as in the infant months of their actual campaigning, there will be a plethora of too-early-to-mean-anything-but-it-could-bode-well polls. My fingers balk at continually typing ‘this poll is too early to mean anything but it could bode well’. Thus, I came up with an acronym to streamline the task when referring to early Romney-favoring polls: PIC-BIG (Preliminary Inclination Count – But It’s Good).

The latest PIC-BIG poll from Gallup shows Governor Romney leading the pack of GOP presidential potentials for 2012:

Romney, who garners 19 percent of support, leads Sarah Palin (16 percent) and Mike Huckabee (12 percent). Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich polled fourth with 9 percent.

Among those further down the list are Rep. Ron Paul with 7 percent; Tim Pawlenty and Haley Barbour received 3 percent. See more details here.

Not bad for Gov Romney – especially since every major potential Republican presidential candidate not currently in office – except Romney – has deals (and face time) with FOX News.

► Jayde Wyatt

Usual caveats…it’s early and these polls don’t really mean anything yet…etc.

Having said that, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics just released an interesting poll where, among other questions, they tested a variety of potential 2012 match ups.  There’s a bunch of data here, and some interesting questions about independent runs by Hilary Clinton and Mike Bloomberg, so click through if you’re interested.  Sticking to the headline, however, here are the key Obama vs. Republican match ups they tested and how each one did:

• BHO vs. Mitt Romney:  41% vs. 40%
• BHO vs. Mike Huckabee:  43% vs. 40%
• BHO vs. Jeb Bush:  45% vs. 37%
• BHO vs. Sarah Palin:  48% vs. 35% (the only Republican who would lose Independents)
• BHO vs. “Tea Party” Candidate:  43% vs. 32%
• BHO vs. Chris Christie:  42% vs. 30%

Both Huckabee and Mitt are within the 3% margin of error, but Mitt is the closest based his strength with both Republicans and Independents.

Again, caveat emptor when it comes to polls 18 months out, but it’s great to see Mitt polling well at this stage of the game.

h/t:  Hotair

I’ve always taken Public Policy Polling’s (PPP’s) data with a grain of salt as they are perceived as left-leaning.  That said, I think their results have generally been fairly reliable in the past (vs. say, Zogby).  Caveats out of the way, I noticed a very interesting poll result that bodes well for a potential Romney candidacy.

You can read the full write-up here.  They don’t provide raw data or cross tabs, so here’s the summary.  PPP asked voters nationwide who are undecided about their vote in the upcoming congressional election their favorable vs. unfavorable perception of a range of politicians.  The breakdown of the undecided population was 14% Democratic, 21% Republican, and a whopping 65% Independent.   Below is a list of the politicians they asked about, and the resulting Unfavorable rating:

Of course, 2012 is still a long way away, but it is clear that 1) Sarah Palin is a double edged sword…great currency within the Republican Party, but extremely challenged outside, and 2) as of now, Mitt has the best chance of winning votes among Independents.

Separately, Mitt is doing a webcast at the Heritage Foundation in about 45 min at 3:45pm EDT.  I don’t know if there are any membership requirements for participating (I am a member), but just in case, try clicking over to Heritage at 3:45 PM and check it out.

UPDATE:

Reader Doug NYC GOP has posted a related article over at Right-o-Sphere which I would highly recommend.  He covers some additional polling data which shows that Mitt is leading the early polling even among the Tea Partiers, which is great news!