According to a PPP poll (667 participants), Mitt Romney leads the pack of GOP 2012 contenders in two important areas. The new poll affirms claims that Mitt may be the strongest candidate for the GOP in a general election. This is what they found:
1 – Mitt Romney is the favorite among Obama supporters who are displeased with Obama’s job performance:
Among the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but don’t approve of his job performance:
-Mitt Romney’s favorability is 32/31 (+1)
-Newt Gingrich’s is 32/40 (-8)
-Mike Huckabee’s is 20/39 (-19)
-Sarah Palin’s is 33/63 (-30)
It seems that Mitt has been well advised in his “non-campaigning” approach. He has been plenty critical of Obama and his policies, but his “attacks” have been strictly matter-of-fact, nothing personal or divisive. This seems a strong way to win over independents – make your arguments compelling and sincere, while not being reactionary or overly sensational. It’s the low-high profile tactic. Mitt has been called the only adult in the room on a number of occasions. Perhaps it’s because he keeps a cool head and continues to methodically “stick to the plan.” It’s the strategy of a front-runner.
2 – Mitt Romney leads GOP contenders in head-to-head polling against Obama:
Governor Romney gets a +3 percent over Obama in a match-up. This margin puts him ahead of the GOP pack, though the others aren’t far behind. The numbers:
Romney vs Obama: 46 – 43 (+3)
Huckabee vs Obama: 47 – 45 (+2)
Gingrich vs Obama: 46 – 45 (+1)
Palin vs Obama: 46 – 46 (0)
Amongst independents Romney wins 48 – 35 (+13). Two years ago those numbers would have been reversed. Is this evidence that people are starting to take off the ObamaGoggles™? I’m actually glad to see the whole group is doing well against Obama. I like Romney the most by far, but the most important thing is that Obama doesn’t get another 4 year term.
-All the fun (or tedious) cross-tabs can be found at the original poll: (PDF)
UPDATE: Mark B. Lowe has some graphs and history perspective with this poll at RightOSphere.com
“We’ve got some thank you’s that I need to say tonight. First of all, I’d like to thank Governor Mitt Romney who was the first National figure to come in to this state when I was 4th in a very heavy race.” ~ Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley (center) reacts to learning she has won South Carolina's Republican nomination for governor.
Her convincing runoff victory over Rep. Gresham Barrett—she had 65 percent to his 35 percent with virtually all the votes counted — makes her the first woman to win either party’s nomination for the state’s top job. South Carolina’s conservative heritage and the mood of voters this year means she is the frontrunner in November’s general election against Democratic state Sen. Vincent Sheheen – and a win would make her South Carolina’s first woman governor.
UPDATE by Jayde: Governor Romney congratulated Nikki Haley for her victory last night by phone and issued this statement today:
“Against the longest of odds, Nikki Haley took on the political establishment and won. Nikki’s conservative reform message resonated throughout the state of South Carolina because she is committed to fiscal discipline and is not tied to the old way of doing things. Putting her in the governor’s office will represent real progress in the effort to control government spending and restore the free market principles that have built and guided our nation.”
Update #2 by Jayde: To listen to a 5 minute podcast of Romney speaking with Forum reporter Kristen Daum, click here. (Scroll down to ‘Audio’ in middle column.)
Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee continue to vie for the lead in the June National GOP nomination poll from Public Policy Polling. The favorable/unfavorable ratings for Mitt looks good, as does his overall polling. As in previous months Sarah Palin’s favorable ratings are the highest of any candidate but continues to lag in polling. What is most clear is that there is no clear front-runner thus far – 2012 could shape out to be a very tight race depending on who actually enters the race.
To view full polling results with cross-tabs click here.
A number of big elections took place yesterday, some of the candidates were endorsed by “The Big 3″ and may have some 2012 Presidential implications. I admit that the game of who-endorsed-who is not of vital importance, but neither can it be cast aside as worthless information. Either way it is unresistingly intriguing to those who are closely following the potential candidates of 2012.
Some highlights of yesterday’s GOP primaries…
Nikki Haley – South Carolina’s Governor race: Nikki Haley enjoyed the endorsement of both Mitt Romney (March 16) and Sarah Palin (May 14th). After both Romney and Palin (and RedState) endorsed her Nikki Haley jumped from a no-name in this race to a substantial lead going into yesterday’s primaries. What she did not enjoy were two separate accusations by men who said they had an affair with her. Haley vigorously denied the accusations and they seemed to fall flat on the voters as well as Haley continued to surge in the polls. There was also a very ugly incident of a State Rep. calling Nikki Haley a raghead, as well as accusation to the affect that she was not really Christian.
Haley lead yesterday’s primary with 49% of the vote in the four-way race. Unfortunately she did not capture a full 50% of the vote and will therefore have a run-off with second-place finisher US Rep. Gresham Barrett, who captured 22% of the votes. Barrett announced this morning that he will not concede the victory. The run-off primary election will be held June 22nd. Barring any revelations about the accusations against Haley, she should cruise to victory as she only needs to add 2% of the remaining 51% that voted for other candidates yesterday. Visit Nikki’s website here. Haley was a prominent endorser of Romney in 2008.
Terry Branstad – Iowa’s Governor race: Terry Branstad was Governor of Iowa from 1983 to 1999 He also enjoyed the support of both Mitt Romney (May 18th) and Sarah Palin (June 3rd). The Sarah Palin endorsement was quite odd I think as she never actually met with Branstad and her endorsement came from Facebook – watch the video of Branstad’s reaction here. Branstad remained neutral through the 2008 campaign but has shown in the past that he is willing to make endorsements. Chris Cillizza reports “As a state representative in 1976, he picked Ronald Reagan. He endorsed Bob Dole in 1996 and Lamar Alexander and then George W. Bush in 2000.” Terry Branstad seemed to be favored in the polls throughout the race and ended up winning by a margin of 50% to 41% over Bob Vander Plaats. Brandstad now faces the incumbent Democrat Chet Culvers for the Governors seat in November.
Meg Whitman – California’s Governor race: In the race to replace the Governator the ex-CEO of eBay cruised to a 64% to 27% victory over Steve Poizner. Meg Whitman was an intricate player in Romney’s 2008 campaign and has enjoyed his support as early as September of last year – possibly earlier, but I don’t know when her campaign officially began. Whitman and Romney’s acquaintance goes much further back than 2008 – she used to work with Mitt at Bain some time long ago. During his campaign stops with Meg in CA Mitt would recall the first time he interviewed her for Bain and how brilliant and authoritative she was. Meg Whitman credits Mitt Romney as being her inspiration for leaving the private sector and jumping into politics. On a side note, the two both testified for the Economic Recovery Working Group in January of 2009. California is economically ill and Meg Whitman is the right person to restore it to fiscal sanity. Meg faces the current Attorney General of CA, Jerry Brown, in the November general elections.
Carly Fiorina – California’s Senate race: There were 3 players in the race to oust incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (shudder). Spurred on by the strong endorsement of Sarah Palin (May 6th), Fiorina enjoyed a surge late in the polls that put her over the top against Former US Congressman Tom Campbell and California State Assembly member Chuck DeVore. It seemed that women that were former CEOs were the order of the day in California as Carly Fiorina won easily with 56% compared to 22% for Campbell and 19% for DeVore. Fiorina was CEO of HP 1999 to 2005. (Romney did not involve himself in this primary as he was not well acquainted with the candidates, but he did congratulate and endorse winner Fiorina earlier today.)
Andre Bauer – South Carolina’s Governor race: The current Lt. Governor failed in his bid for the nomination finishing in 4th place in the race at 12%. Bauer was a strong proponent of Huckabee’s 2008 campaign in South Carolina and received Huckabee’s endorsement very early in December of 2009. Bauer’s campaign was likely damaged by the fact that one the men who claimed to have an affair with Nikki Haley worked for his campaign. That man, Larry Marchant, was fired by Bauer and Bauer passed a lie-detector test saying that he knew nothing of the alleged involvement with Haley. Marchant also took a polygraph test but it was scored inconclusive.
Bob Vander Plaats – Iowa’s Governor race: Team Huck and Chuck went in big for Bob Vander Plaats campaign, to no avail. Vander Plaats chaired Huckabee’s Iowa campaign. Way back then Huckabee was already referring to Vander Plaats as “the next Governor of Iowa”. I would call that an extremely early endorsement. Bob ran a good race and lost by a not-large margin of 9 points.
Chuck DeVore – California’s Senate race: This race saddened me the most. I met DeVore at CPAC earlier this year and took a liking to him. I felt he was certainly the most conservative candidate in this race and he had the potential to beat Boxer, but I must readily admit that Fiorina is probably more electable, or rather, has a higher likelihood to defeat Boxer. DeVore was endorsed by Huckabee alone back on April 28th. Though DeVore gave it an excellent effort his campaign failed to gain traction statewide. Hopefully we’ll see more like him in the future.
For those keeping score for yesterday we have both Romney and Palin at 3-0, and poor Huck at 0-3. I know Huckabee supporters are disappointed on the returns of the day. Huckabee has actually issued a very respectable statement about yesterday’s elections.
Congrats to those who won. We look forward to more primaries coming up in the next few weeks and months.
Update 1 by Jayde: For further information on election results for Arkansas, California, Iowa, Nevada, New Jersey, N. Dakota, S. Carolina, S. Dakota, Virginia, and Georgia’s special election run-off click here.
For additional information on Montana’s primary election click here.
For additional information on Maine’s primary election click here.
UPDATE 2 by Jayde: The election headline that caught fire last night was: Ladies’ Night!
Early polling from PPP indicates that there is still no clear front-runner for the 2012 race. I find the numbers very interesting but can’t help but feel they may be very far from what will really happen as I’m very doubtful that all five (Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee, Romney, and Paul) will be running. In fact I would wager that only 2 or 3 of those will actually be running, and 2 or 3 other candidates not mentioned will run as well, ie. Mike Pence, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, or Rick Santorum.
In my view the problem with these polls is that Gingrich is not going to run. No matter what he does or says, or where he’s at in the polls, I won’t believe that Gingrich will run until the moment he actually files papers to form an exploratory committee. In 2008, he toyed with the idea, gave hints etc., just the same as he is doing now. He eventually let on that he would run if he was essentially drafted into doing so by some sweeping ground-swell of grassroots support, which never happened.
Gingrich, as well as Romney, Huckabee and Palin, have much to gain in terms of name ID and national stardom, AS LONG AS they continue to flirt with the possibility of making a 2012 run. The same is true for T-Paw, Daniels or whoever. There is just something about running for president that sparks people’s interest in who you are. Otherwise we might have never known who Sam Brownback or Tom Tancredo are. But Gingrich knows, as do the others, that the minute they completely rule out running in 2012, and convince of that fact, they are no longer as interesting to the public eye and will be found in less demand for the daily news cycles.
Am I wrong on Gingrich? Anyone have hard evidence that he is running? Let me know please, I don’t want to be completely blindsided by it if he does run.
So, here are the numbers from the PPP poll:
[table "15" not found /]
[table "16" not found /]
[table "17" not found /]
Romney showing in 4th in Iowa, but it looks like it’s essentially a 3-way tie for second. He’s in a close second in South Carolina, but my guess is that poll may be entirely inaccurate. It’s no surprise that he continues to lead Michigan in a dominating fashion. What I will note is that the 65+ crowd seems to love Romney… perhaps because they are the oldest and the wisest.
It will include “selections from classic and contemporary readings that have moved her,” according to HarperCollins, along with “the nation’s founding documents to great speeches, sermons, letters, literature and poetry, biography, and even some of her favorite songs and movies.”
The book is inspired not only by her “strong belief in the importance of family, faith, and patriotism,” but by some of the people she met last year while promoting Going Rogue. Palin skipped major cities such as Seattle and Los Angeles, traditional stops on most author tours, and instead focused on smaller communities more receptive to her conservative message.
“The book will also include portraits of some of the extraordinary men and women she admires and who embody her deep love of country, her strong rootedness in faith, and her profound love and appreciation of family,” the statement from HarperCollins reads.
A Palin book tour will stir presidential speculation, but the decision by Palin — and the publisher — to launch it in the crucial opening weeks of the 2012 cycle should actually put a damper on that speculation. The tour will be paid for by HarperCollins, and the publisher will be in legal jeopardy should it appear to contribute in kind to a presidential campaign.
But Holly Bailey of Yahoo! News points out that it has been done before:
Palin wouldn’t be the first potential candidate to hit the road on a book tour while very publicly contemplating a run for the White House. Back in October 2006, Barack Obama cruised through early primary states peddling his second book, “The Audacity of Hope,” while openly considering a run for office. His first visit to New Hampshire, scheduled just days after the conclusion of the ’06 midterms.
In regards to her books I have yet to read her first one, though I bought it long ago. I may bypass it and wait for this one. If she does enter the GOP race I’ll feel obligated to read them both, as well as Huckabee’s books should he enter the race. One thought about Sarah’s new book title – I think the subtitle should end with “Faith, Family and Patriotism” instead of “Faith, Family, and Flag”. I understand the appeal of the alliteration, but I think the term flag just seems a little awkward for some reason. (Luke tells me the subtitle of her second book should be “Going Roguer”.)
Sarah Palin endorses Nikki Haley for Governor in South Carolina
I can appreciate Palin’s support in this race. Nikki Haley is an excellent candidate that also enjoys the endorsement of Governor Romney and Jenny Sanford. Haley is currently serving in South Carolina’s House of Representatives. Other endorsements in the South Carolina Governor race include John McCain’s for state Attorney General Henry McMaster who lead McCain’s SC campaign in 2008, and Mike Huckabee’s endorsement of Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer.
Sarah Palin also recently endorsed Carly Fiorina for California’s Senate race. I must say that I’m rooting for Chuck DeVore in this case. Governor Romney has not endorsed anyone in this race. Huckabee has endorsed DeVore. What I think is most important in this race is that the current leader Tom Campbell doesn’t win. I’d be content with a Fiorina win over Campbell, but much more pleased with a DeVore win. What would please me even further is that if any one of those three won the Senate seat over current Democrat incumbent Barbara Boxer.
There have been a number of Romney related news articles the past few days that have gone unreported here. It appears that all of us bloggers are suffering from life-is-too-hectic-to-have-time-to-blog disease at the same time. It happens, especially near the end of the school semester.
Here is what we missed:
Romney leads PPP’s Arizona Poll: Romney 27% – Gingrich 19% – Palin 13% – Huckabee 12% – Paul 9% – Undecided 19%. Romney leads among both men and women, conservatives and moderates, and all age groups. (source)
Free and Strong America rolls out endorsements of 7 candidates for office in Illinois:
Congressman Mark Kirk: Congressman Mark Kirk currently represents the 10th Congressional District of Illinois and is now running for U.S. Senate. For more information about him and his campaign, visit http://www.kirkforsenate.com.
Congressman Peter Roskam: Congressman Peter Roskam currently represents the 6th Congressional District of Illinois and is running for reelection. For more information about him and his campaign, visit www.roskamforcongress.com.
Congressman Aaron Schock: Congressman Aaron Schock currently represents the 18th Congressional District of Illinois and is running for reelection. For more information about him and his campaign, visit www.aaronschock.com.
Robert Dold: Robert Dold is a small business owner who is running to represent the 10th Congressional District of Illinois. For more information about him and his campaign, please visit www.doldforcongress.com.
Randy Hultgren: Randy Hultgren currently represents the people of Illinois in the State Senate and is now running to represent the 14th Congressional District of Illinois. For more information about him and his campaign, please visit www.hultgrenforcongress.com.
Adam Kinzinger: Adam Kinzinger has served in local government and as a member of the U.S. Air Force. He is now is running to represent the 11th Congressional District of Illinois. For more information about him and his campaign, visit www.electadam.com.
Dan Rutherford: Dan Rutherford currently represents the people of Illinois in the State Senate and is now running to become State Treasurer. For more information about him and his campaign, visit www.danrutherford.org.
These Illinois endorsements are the seventh in a series of state rollouts of the PAC’s 2010 endorsements, which are aimed at electing conservative candidates who will work to lower taxes and spending, restore commonsense principles to healthcare and get our economy moving again. As part of this program, Romney’s PAC also has announced endorsements in Ohio, Missouri, California, Pennsylvania, Hawaii, and Nevada. (source)
Chris Cillizza comments on Romney “flexing his muscles”:
Romney’s steady roll-out of endorsements is an exercise in some not-so-subtle muscle-flexing by the former governor. Romney led all potential 2012 Republican candidates in fundraising over the first three months of 2010 and has, without question, the most sophisticated political operation of any of the contenders. (source)
Romney quote on Arizona’s new immigration law:
Arizona’s new immigration enforcement law is the direct result of Washington’s failure to secure the border and to protect the lives and liberties of our citizens. […] It is my hope that the law will be implemented with care and caution not to single out individuals based upon their ethnicity. It is increasingly clear that the time has come for Washington to fulfill its responsibility for border security. (source)
All the streets in America are connected – Romney responds to DNC attack ad: I think this should win the quote-of-the-day award.
Democrats attacked Romney in recent days for his defense of Wall Street as the Obama administration pushes for new banking regulations.
[…] And frankly, I don’t believe in discriminating against anybody, regardless of the street they’re from,” he said. “You see, all the streets in America are connected, and scape-goating and demonizing individuals based on where they live or where they work is a big mistake.
Romney went on to say that any bad actors should be punished appropriately. Meanwhile Hoekstra, who’s running for governor, said most of what he saw of recent Senate hearings on Goldman Sachs was political posturing. (source) (hat tip)
In related news: 24-hour live webcam shows the nest of a bald eagle family with an egg (1 at least) that hatched just this morning. The little baby eagle is so cute (when you can see him). My wife watched the parents land in the nest with a fish and feed little pieces of it the the baby bird. Watch it any time of day here: http://www.hornbyeagles.com/webcam
How is this related? Well… Romney is going to be the next President of the United States, and the bald eagle is an official emblem of the United States. So you see it’s not too far of a stretch, even though these particular bald eagles are on Hornby Island which is just of the coast of British Columbia.
Lastly: (Video) Charlie Crist announces he will will run for senator of Florida as an independent:
Oh, wait. I’ve posted the wrong video now, haven’t I?
To be honest, speculating and debating about what would be the best combo of President and VP is not really my cup of tea. All I know is that I want Romney on top of the ticket, and his VP pick would be his choice. BUT… since Pres./VP combos seems to be the greatest topic of discussion and interest on our Facebook posts I’ve decided to through this poll out there to give our readers some meat to chew on. Even so, I will still be interested to see the results.
Have at it!
Note: I left Dr. Paul off intentionally to avoid having the poll over run. This is meant to be a poll of who Romney supporters would want as VP. If you really want Paul as VP please indicate that in the comments.
No matter who ends up running in in 2012, I will be very surprised if Romney doesn’t win New Hampshire this time around.
PPP surveyed 642 New Hampshire Republican primary voters from April 17th to 18th: If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum who would you vote for?
39% Mitt Romney
13 Sarah Palin
11 Newt Gingrich
11 Mike Huckabee
07 Ron Paul
03 Tim Pawlenty
01 Haley Barbour
01 Rick Santorum
In March Romney rose to the top of Public Policy Polling’s 2012 GOP nomination poll. This month he stays atop the poll showing marked improvement in a few demographics. For the first time that I can recall he is leading the group among women voters. He is now also leading among voters in the West region, conservative voters, as well as those older than 65. The only two demographics that Romney didn’t lead this month are the South region and voters 18-29 years of age. Huckabee leads both of those categories.
Public Policy Polling asks 400 Republican Primary voters: If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?