For a guy who purports to be the ardent social warrior of the Republican party, Rick Santorum sure seems cozy at the right hand side of Arlen Specter, applauding him as he berates those in the “radical” wing of our party — you know, those crazy people who are fighting for justice for the unborn and religious freedoms.
Take note, Wisconsin social conservatives. The guy who is selling himself as someone who will fight for your values is becoming, well, unraveled.
The Romance of Delegate Math
If you’re like me you find yourself looking at polling data and calculating delegate counts in your head. If Mitt takes so many delegates in DC, Maryland and Wisconsin, that puts him at a new total of X, extending his lead over Santorum by Y, and making Rick need Z percent of the future delegates to win…. Okay, maybe you’re not like me.
It may sound boring to the uninitiated, but it’s the math behind propelling the most qualified candidate in the race to his party’s nomination, step one in replacing Barack Obama.
What’s at Stake Tuesday: Long View
What Obamacare teaches us. In case you don’t think replacing Barack Obama is a big deal, reflect back on the biggest political story of this week. Okay, not the open mic incident. I’m referring to our hearing our president’s Solicitor General argue to the Supreme Court why Obamacare’s Federal mandate is constitutional. The traditionally conservative justices asked for a rationale that could possibly limit Congress’ power under the commerce clause should they accept his argument. Meanwhile, the traditionally liberal justices tried their best to supply that rationale. Based on the impressions of those reporting, the decision appears headed for a familiar 5-4 vote against the law, with the four traditional conservatives on one side, the four traditional liberals on the other, and middle-of-the-road Justice Kennedy likely voting with the conservatives. But time will tell.
Shape of the Court to come. As someone concerned about finding real limits to Congress’ power (history proving we need limits to preserve our freedom), and knowing the general police power was intended to be reserved to the states (making the difference between Federal Obamacare and state Romneycare night and day), I thank my lucky stars we had presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush to appoint the four conservative justices currently on the court. The liberal justices? Two from Clinton, two from Obama. By way of preview, the next president may have a chance to replace not only the lead conservative on the court in Scalia (currently 76 years old) and a staunch liberal on the court in Ginsburg (79), but iconic swing justice Kennedy, who has made the difference in many 5-4 decisions (currently 75 years old). In other words, who the president is matters, a lot, not just in signing and vetoing laws, but in appointing justices to the court who can protect the Constitution for a generation to come (a combined half-century now for Scalia and Kennedy).
MORE REGARDING THE SUPREME COURT AND AN ESTIMATE OF DELEGATES AWARDED TUESDAY BELOW! (more…)
After Congressman Paul Ryan’s strong endorsement of Mitt Romney today, we saw the powerful duo later join up to take to the stage at Lawrence University in Appleton, Wisconsin. Before Romney delivered an inspiring “Restoring America” speech, Congressman Ryan introduced him.
Speaking on America’s absolute need for a true leader in the White House, Ryan said we must have a leader who has courage, conservative principles, and conviction… who has the integrity and tenacity to get America back on track. “In my humble opinion as a guy from Janesville, we need Mitt Romney to be the next president of the United States of America,” he enthusiastically offered. “I’m excited, I’m encouraged, I’m enthused.”
Ryan ended by asking his fellow Wisconsinites to join him in supporting Romney.
Romney’s presidential-sounding speech had an unmistakable general election tone. He spoke on the troubled Obama legacy and introduced a new theme: Obama’s Government-Centered Society versus rebuilding the foundation of our Opportunity Society.
VIDEO of his entire speech may be viewed here.
Excerpts from Romney’s speech (For full text, click here.):
In 222 days, something pretty extraordinary is going to happen in the country. We’ll have an election. Across this country, millions and millions of Americans will be able to do something that is really quite amazing: They will choose not only a President, but an entire House of Representatives and a third of the US Senate.
The entire world will be watching us. And by around midnight on November 6th, maybe a little earlier or a little later, we’ll know the results of millions of Americans exercising their right to vote and in doing so, making a choice so profound that it is very difficult for any of us to grasp.
But I believe Americans face a fundamental choice in this election, a decision that is much more important than the candidates or the political parties. We should understand that we are selecting not just who should guide us but a choice between two distinct paths and destinies for our nation.
In the days and months ahead, we should ask ourselves some very fundamental questions about who we are as a nation and who we are becoming. What does it mean to be an American in 2012? What will it mean in 2016 and beyond? Are we keeping faith with the great legacy – and trust – that has been handed to us by previous generations? And what America will we leave the next generation?
Our yearly budget deficits are soaring and our national debt now stands at an all-time high. Barack Obama presided over the first trillion-dollar deficit in American history. And he has repeated this dreadful distinction for each year he has been in office.
For the first time since World War II, our national debt is greater than the size of our entire economy. Each American’s share of the national debt stands at $50,000.
. . . As much as we would like to, we can’t undo what has happened these past years. The families who have lost their homes, the factories that have closed, the students who had to drop out of college and those who never could make it in the door, all those missed chances and lost opportunities can’t be regained.
And that’s why it is important to understand one astonishing fact about this election: President Obama thinks he’s doing a good job. No, I’m not kidding. He actually thinks he’s doing a great job. An historically great job. According to the President, only Lincoln, FDR and Lyndon Johnson have accomplished more. And no, he didn’t say that on Saturday Night Live.
This is a President who was elected not on the strength of a compelling record but a compelling personality and story. There was much about the campaign of Barack Obama that appealed to many Americans. And though the reality has failed the hope and change he promised, he remains surrounded by true believers who attack anyone who challenges their power. And, as we see each day, they will fight even more fiercely to hold on to that power.
All of this is to be expected. That power loves power and never lets go easily is hardly new.
The choice before us could not be more profound. Barack Obama and I have fundamentally different visions for America.
He has spent the last four years laying the foundation for a new Government-Centered Society. I will spend the next four years rebuilding the foundation of our Opportunity Society, led by free people and free enterprises.
Continue reading here.
Romney’s scope of understanding of what truly is at stake for the land of the free and the home of the brave was plainly evident today. It was an inspiring, magnificent speech. My heart swelled with pride and hope knowing he has the courage, conviction, and resolve to take the battle directly to Obama and win.
Mitt Romney will restore America’s greatness.
► Jayde Wyatt
After spending time on the House floor yesterday overseeing the passing of his budget plan, Congressman Paul Ryan (Republican Chairman of the House Budget Committee) appeared this morning on FOX & Friends to. . .
ENDORSE MITT ROMNEY!
“I am convinced that Mitt Romney has the skills, the tenacity, the courage and the principles to get America back on track.”
Coming on the heels of endorsements from President Bush 41 and Senator Marco Rubio, the backing from Ryan essentially signals a primary wind-up.
It’s over.
Ryan said he’d put in an earlier call to Rick Santorum to alert him of his pending endorsement of Romney. He also stressed the fact that America is at a crossroads and the necessity of coalescing now behind Governor Romney.
Ryan’s endorsement comes just day’s ahead of Wisconsin’s primary (his home state).
Stay tuned for more details!
UPDATE: When asked who he will support, here is what Paul Ryan said:
Mitt Romney. Here is the point, we vote on Tuesday here in Wisconsin. Lots of my friends, family and supporters are asking me, who do we think we should vote for? I have two criteria I’m using to make my decision to vote in our primary on Tuesday. Who is the best person to be President – who will make the best President? And who has the best chance of defeating Barak Obama? In my opinion, Mitt Romney is clearly that person.
Here’s the other point. I spent a good deal of time with Mitt Romney and his staff recently going through our country’s fiscal situation, talking about what it will take to get the country back on track. I am convinced Mitt Romney has the skills, the tenacity, the principles, the courage and the integrity to do what it takes to get America back on track. So I believe he’s the right person for the job. And I think this primary has been productive, I think it’s been constructive up until now. I think it’s made the candidates better. But I think we’re entering a phase where it could become counterproductive if it drags on much longer. That’s why I think we as conservatives need to coalesce around Mitt Romney and focus on the big task at hand, which is defeating Barak Obama in the fall.
UPDATE 2 - Governor Romney tweeted:
With @RepPaulRyan’s support, I have every confidence that we can begin the hard work of setting our country on a better course.
— Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) March 30, 2012
UPDATE 3 - From The Washington Post
Wisconsin is holding its primary on Tuesday, but Ryan’s endorsement will resonates far outside his home state. Ryan, a proponent of deep cuts in entitlements and agency funding, has become the leading voice on debt and spending issues in the Republican party.
His blessing of Romney comes on the heels of endorsements from former Florida governor Jeb Bush, former president George H.W. Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)–clear signs that Republican leaders young and old, from both the tea party and establishment wings, are ready for this primary season to be over.
UPDATE 4 - Romney’s statement:
“When the history of this chapter of American politics is written, I venture to say that Paul Ryan will occupy a significant place in the story of how our country rescued itself from financial disaster. Congressman Ryan has not only thought deeply and creatively about how to bring our extraordinary budget shortfall under control, but he has demonstrated the leadership to bring Americans together to put his bold reforms into practice. In the battle for fiscal responsibility, we have been facing gale force headwinds from the Democratic Party and from the Obama White House. But with Paul Ryan’s support, I have every confidence that we can overcome those headwinds, recapture the White House for the American people, and begin the hard work of setting our country on a better course. I am profoundly grateful to Congressman Ryan for his endorsement today. I am even more grateful for all the hard work he has done to help turn around our country and restore it to greatness.”
(emphasis added)
► Jayde Wyatt
This week, a number of news outlets have reported a conspicuous drop in Santorum’s typical strident rhetoric against Gov. Romney. I believe this is a less than subtle way to position himself to exit the race. Yesterday’s New York Times reported,
Rick Santorum has eased up on using phrases like “worst Republican in the country” when tearing into Mitt Romney. And he is no longer saying that a vote for Mr. Romney would be basically the same thing as a vote for President Obama.
Meet subdued Santorum.
After several highly publicized remarks that left many in his party questioning whether he had crossed the line in attacking a fellow Republican, Mr. Santorum has struggled to find the balance between being a tenacious underdog and leaving himself open to criticism that he is just an embittered also-ran.
[...]
The sudden restraint has surprised some of his supporters.
[emphasis added]
Senator Santorum is not stupid; think about it. Just a few days ago, he rips Gov. Romney publicly and that very same day publicly states he would consider a veep position under a President Romney. Yes, I did a double-take as well! But why let up now? The NYT article even quotes his supporters saying that his “passionate” language is one of the things most appealing.
Here is the reason I believe. There are eight primaries between now and April 24th. Romney is expected to win six of them and probably by a wide margin. The other two are Wisconsin (4/3) and Pennsylvania (4/24). As of 7:30 p.m. PST tonight, Intrade shows the probability of a Santorum win in Wisconsin at 11.8% and a win in his home state of Pennsylvania at 31.1%. The other six states are below 5% except Connecticut (6.8%). Above, I said Santorum is not stupid. He is looking at these same probabilities and he is thinking now.
Here is where the dew of reality is descending upon Santorum’s thoughts.
Rick Santorum’s private thoughts (my conjecture):
“Wow! I could lose this thing fast in the next few weeks. I have to win. I put too much into this thing with my wife, my children, and Bella — And dang it, I worked harder than the other guys and I deserve to win! I have to win Wisconsin to build the momentum into my home state but Mitt is so much more prepared and his machine is killing me in Wisconsin. I have to win Pennsylvania! If I lose Wisconsin, that will not be good going into Pennsylvania! Mitt is picking up steam in Pennsylvania this week. I have to win Pennsylvania! Having to answer to that dang 18 point loss in my senate race in 2006 has been shear [pain] in this race — embarrassing! There is no way I will lose Pennsylvania — No way!”
Do you see where Rick’s mind is right now? Can he win Wisconsin next Tuesday? Absolutely he can if we let up at all. I strongly believe Governor Romney has Santorum in a strangle hold with Wisconsin, especially if he trounces him Tuesday. Romney will likely smash Santorum in DC and Maryland and if he has a really strong win in Wisconsin, Santorum will be all but dead going into Pennsylvania.
Bloomberg Businessweek reported in February:
Yet six years ago, as he sought a third Senate term in Pennsylvania, Santorum proved he can also lose in such a politically competitive state — and lose big.
Santorum’s last race — an 18-percentage-point defeat in 2006 bid — raises questions about his appeal to independent voters who could help decide the national election in November, as well as to Republicans who will determine who gets the party’s nomination.
Santorum’s loss was “the largest defeat by a Republican United States senator seeking election or re-election in modern Pennsylvania history,” said G. Terry Madonna, a polling expert and public affairs professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.
So think about it. If I am Santorum and I know I now have two choices (after losing Wisconsin): 1) I could do what I have said I would do and stay in the race all the way to the convention (remember: “principle”) and lose Pennsylvania and be thoroughly embarrassed again, or 2) I could exit stage right and declare my loyal support to Romney and hear everybody cheer me to glory.
How does Santorum avoid losing Pennsylvania again?
If Santorum were to lose Wisconsin to Romney, which do you think he will choose? 1? or 2? I predict Wisconsin will be another close race but that Romney will win it. If this happens, Santorum will “evaluate” the race at that point and decide to exit entirely. What seems hard to predict is when he would make that announcement. I think it would likely be the weekend following the Wisconsin primary and not a lot later so that it does not appear to be correlated with a fear of embarrassment — which a loss in his home state certainly would be.
The most compelling argument for Santorum to attempt a graceful exit from the race, upon losing Wisconsin, is this (he is not stupid — Santorum is the epitome of the political animal): He wants a future in politics — and presidential politics at that. If he were to lose Pennsylvania bad (very good possibility), he would be almost for sure pushed out of the race with people laughing, and his political reputation would be all but destroyed.
If he were then to attempt to run for POTUS in future years, it will always be remembered of him that he could not win reelection (2006) to the Senate in his home state (historically huge loss) and that he bad-mouthed Romney for months before being trounced again in his home state of Pennsylvania (2012). And why? Because of a) a huge ego, b) stubbornness, and c) strident social positions. He would be washed up and would forever be overlooked as a serious national candidate. He will not allow that to happen — not when he can control the outcome now.
As we say in business, the risk-reward consideration is making this untenable for Mr. Santorum. I think the probability that Santorum will compete in Pennsylvania is less than five percent.
He will not allow himself to be embarrassed. Not by Governor Romney!
GO MITT! Let’s all work as hard as we can to bring a HUGE win to Mitt in Wisconsin — We do not want the Wisconsin results to even be close! We can finish off Santorum next Tuesday.
“As the world’s finest democracy, we do not do guillotines. But there are other less bloody rituals of humiliation, designed to reassure the populace that order is restored, the Republic cleansed.” ~ William Greider
Exit Question: What is a One Term Obama Presidency Worth to You?
Adding to David Parker’s earlier coverage of Rick Santorum’s meltdown, here is the full video. I think my favorite part might be watching the embarrassment of Rick’s daughter — biting her fingernails [at 1:09 mark] as daddy throws his political future down the drain.
An interesting op ed piece appeared on Politico today from Paul Goldman and Mark J. Rozell, posing the question whether “Romneycare” is an asset or liability for Mitt. They conclude the former.
The traditional analysis, which has become the sole remaining justification for a Rick Santorum candidacy, is that Mitt Romney’s being the author of Romneycare somehow disqualifies him from pointing out the flaws in Obamacare in the general election. But the op ed authors take exception to the traditional analysis:
This conservative faith is wrong, however. To the extent that attacks on President Barack Obama’s health care reform are good politics, the candidate best able to make them is Mitt Romney.
Since he orchestrated and then signed the Massachusetts health care law, Romney is uniquely qualified to lead the GOP attacks against the federal health care reform bill.
Why would Mitt be uniquely qualified?
He would be the first GOP nominee in nearly 50 years with a proven track record on health care who has been praised by Democrats — including the president — as fair and compassionate. He can’t be demonized as an out-of-touch, uncompassionate, hard-right ideologue on this issue.
Americans have been telling pollsters since 1965 that they favor Democrats over Republicans when asked whom they trust on health care issues. That was when President Lyndon B. Johnson and congressional Democrats passed the historic Medicare program — over the objections of many high-profile Republican opponents, including future President Ronald Reagan.
This political landscape meant GOP presidential nominees have regularly been put on the defensive, sometimes even demonized, on health care issues. Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are typical in this regard.
Romney is the exception.
The office of President of the United States is the most powerful and most stressful position or job of any in the world. The pressures and demands of the office age the office holder in four short years – just look at all who have held the office.
The President of the United States has to be focused, deliberate, measured and capable in addressing the needs of our nation. Even in the deepest of crises, the holder of the Office, must be sufficiently seasoned to exhibit calm under pressure. He or she needs to be disciplined and exude self-control.
We have a great vetting process in the Primary season, which measures and proves a candidate worthy. Their mettle is tested daily. In a comparative of current Republican candidates, we have observed Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul.
Who has exhibited measure equal to the office of President?
Let’s look at Newt Gingrich? If we look at the Old Newt, we see the serious lack of discipline, and consequences thereof. If we look at the New Newt, we can’t be sure because the Old Newt always, always comes back. The proof is in the pudding. His life has reflected in almost all things, a lack of discipline.
If we look at Mitt Romney, who has been attacked from every side, he has always shown principled leadership, self-discipline and self-control. He is a man of civility and respect beyond measure. I have never known anyone who has weathered the storms and attacks like Mitt Romney, always respectful and civil. Such is a sign of a strong, confident and capable mind. In fact, many who agree or even disagree with him, state that he is by far and above, the most Presidential in the contest. He is a man of compassion, a man of passion, a man of experience, integrity and character – and one called to lead. His measure is self evident and worthy of the office of POTUS. His life has been a reflection of such, without variance.
That said, what the *#&* is happening to Rick Santorum? We are seeing daily meltdowns, and I don’t think it is just campaign fatigue. 
In fact, given the regularity of such, there appears a propensity for self-destruction amid the pressures of the process. First, it was Obama being preferable to Mitt Romney. And Mitt’s response… Second, it was Santorum stating today that there couldn’t be anyone worse to run against Obama than Mitt Romney. In each of these two instances, in as many days, Santorum has exploded at the press stating that they are taking them out of context. Really? We have heard and/or read the words. I think it is Rick Santorum who is lacking context. In his rant today, he even used an expletive to express himself, amidst the yelling. Rick Santorum seems not to have just lost his composure and self-control; he has just lost it entirely! It has been said, “profanity is the sign of a weak mind trying to forcefully express itself”. That pretty much sums it up for me. I personally believe that if your vocabulary is limited to profanity when expressing frustration or attempted strength, something is missing. I am just saying… In this case, I think Rick is melting under the pressures of the campaign and the true Rick Santorum is finally being revealed. Talk about unraveling the sweater – he seems to be doing a pretty good job of that himself. If Rick Santorum can’t stand the pressures of a Primary campaign, what is he going to do in a General campaign, or heaven forbid, as POTUS. It is almost sad to watch.
Notwithstanding the math of the delegate count, the fact that Rick Santorum has to win 74% of the remaining delegates, and his failed strategy to mount a campaign of destruction, trying to prevent the inevitable, Rick Santorum needs to withdraw with grace before he self-destructs any further and eliminates any future in Republican politics. Appreciating the obvious, Mr. Santorum’s ego seems to be getting the better of him, and the likelihood of a graceful withdrawal is probably equal to more meltdowns in the near term.
A Special Note to Rick Santorum
A wise man learns from the experience of those who have preceded him, thus avoiding the pitfalls and mistakes that might otherwise beset him. Look to those who have preceded you, Mitt Romney being one. It is time, save yourself, subordinate your ego and let’s move forward together for the betterment of the Party, for the Nation and for the cause of replacing Barack Obama. Any further rants or failings on the campaign will not undermine or destroy anyone else but you. It is not too late, yet…but time is passing quickly! Let not pride impede your way. As a man of faith, humility and meekness are the better traits. Our good fortune is that we have one proven, in experience, in character, in integrity and in conservative principles; one that can lead and inspire our Nation; one who can restore what has been lost in the Obama era – Mitt Romney. The sooner you realize it the better!
I don’t want to come off as presumptuous, but among my friends, family, and colleagues at least, it seems most people would rather that super PACs not exist at all and that presidential elections be controlled by the largest number of average voters rather than by the select super wealthy. That would be my preference.
Harold Simmons (photo: Amy Simmons)
Wishes aside, super PACs do in fact exist. They are reality in this cycle. And they will have an enormous influence in shaping voter perception.
Monica Langley of The Wall Street Journal wrote an excellent, thoroughly researched article about the influence of super donors in the Republican party. In particular, she examines the intentions of the 80-year old Texas multi-billionaire, Harold Simmons.
I wanted to share this article, in part, because it reveals the shear determination and will of a very powerful man to ensure defeat of Obama in November, along with his administration’s terrible policies.
Few people want to defeat President Barack Obama more than billionaire Harold Clark Simmons, who is willing to spend many millions of dollars in the quest. As it happens, campaign rules now give him the opportunity.
Watching a TV news report that Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum was rising in polls last month, Mr. Simmons wondered about the prospects of the former Pennsylvania senator. He called his personal political muse, Republican strategist Karl Rove.
“Is he worth investing into his super PAC?” Mr. Simmons asked. He rose from his leather recliner in the den and stood at a bay window overlooking swans gliding on a lake encircled by 17,000 tulips. “Does he have a chance?”
“Yes, I wouldn’t count him out,” Mr. Rove said. Mr. Simmons’s wife, Annette, who was keen on Mr. Santorum, promptly donated $1 million to his super PAC, cash badly needed for an ad blitz ahead of the Super Tuesday primaries.
I found it fascinating that two spouses would decide to financially support two different presidential candidates. See “Biggest Spender” chart at the end of article… (more…)
The Santorum campaign woke up in a ditch this morning.
Their intrepid driver, Rick, was reportedly suffering from something a senior advisor called “campaign fatigue.” But there were other reports that a distracted Santorum had his head down and was fiddling with something on his knee while driving.
His patchwork campaign, which already bears a striking resemblance to a neighborhood yard sale, gave the word “disarray” new meaning with this latest mishap.
You realize, of course, that I am referring to (and pardon me for paraphrasing) his ill-advised but very revealing statement yesterday that he can see no difference between a Romney presidency and the continuation of Obama’s relentless war on liberty.
If Rick weren’t a teetotaler, I’d suggest that somebody get a cop down there to administer a roadside sobriety test.
But it must be that he’s just worn out. You know, there’s a reason why there are federal regulations limiting the length of time that a professional bus or truck driver can drive at a stretch. Campaigns can go on too long as well. Fatigue is a killer.
In this case, Rick’s fatigued statement has blown a giant hole in the thin veneer of conservatism and Republican Party loyalty that he has been trying to craft from the passenger seat of Chuck’s pickup truck since last year. By the way, where is chauffeur Chuck-in-the-Truck when you need him?
But although he would dearly love to take it back, Rick said it, and he meant it. What an amazing display of unvarnished self-interest and personal ambition. What happened to cause and country, Rick? When did you lose sight of the fundamental objective, a Republican win in the general election? How you could let yourself fall into the rookie mistake of believing your own publicity?
Sadly, I think we’ve seen the real Rick Santorum this time, and he is neither as publicly-minded, nor as purely conservative, nor as ready to govern as we might have hoped.
In fact, it’s starting to look like the only reason today’s road-weary Republican voters haven’t already run Rick off the road themselves is that, by contrast to his chief rival for that increasingly-distant second place, Rick’s narcissistic tantrum is a barely-audible whimper compared to the screeching whine of self- aggrandizement and vengefulness being displayed by a progressively less-relevant Newt Gingrich.
Their unguarded rhetoric has revealed that both are in this for themselves first. That leaves the rest of us and the good of the country as distant a second place on their agendas as they themselves are in the polls.
Rick will likely have his last hurrah in Louisiana tomorrow. Let it be a farewell party, so that Mitt Romney and the Republican Party can move on to the real business of taking on Obama, and retaking America from the freedom-crushing machinery of the liberal wrecking yard.
It’s over, and everyone knows it but Rick. By its leader’s own desperate and reckless act, the Santorum campaign has been totaled this time. As an aside, a somewhat dazed campaign spokesman dragged himself from the wreckage last night to refute media reports that Santorum’s little accident was the result of rhetorical texting while driving.
I sort of believe him, but only because I have it on good authority that the device he was fooling with on his knee at the time of the fateful crash was not his Blackberry, but an Etch-a-Sketch.
With anti-Obama voters poised to revoke his driver’s license, I suspect that Rick will have lots of time to hone his Etch-a-Sketching skills in the months to come.
Maybe he’ll take a driving lesson too.
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