POLL: In Arizona, Obama Beats All Republicans but One . . . Romney

Romney beats Obama in Arizona

Romney beats Obama in Arizona

From Public Polling Policy:

Obama trails only one Republican- Mitt Romney- in a hypothetical match up in the state. Romney has a 48-44 advantage against him. This makes Arizona the third state in the last month, along with Nevada and Pennsylvania, where we’ve found Romney as the only Republican who leads Obama. Romney and Mike Huckabee generally post similar numbers against Obama in our national polling but that’s because Huckabee posts much larger leads than Romney against Obama in southern states that the GOP will win regardless of who the party’s nominee is. Romney is clearly proving to be the stronger candidate in important swing states, meaning that for whatever it’s worth he has claim to the ‘electability’ mantle right now.

 

How do they stack up vs. Obama in AZ?

Mitt Romney 48% — Obama 44% (+4)
Obama 46% — Mike Huckabee 44% (-2)
Obama 47% — Newt Gingrich 40% (-7)
Obama 48% — Donald Trump 38% (-10)
Obama 49% — Sarah Palin 38% (-11)

The favorability ratings are equally awesome for Mitt, not so much for Trump:

Mitt Romney: Favorable — 45%, Unfavorable — 37%, Not Sure — 17% (+8)
Mike Huckabee: Favorable — 35%, Unfavorable — 48%, Not Sure — 17% (-13)
Sarah Palin: Favorable — 32%, Unfavorable — 62%, Not Sure — 5% (-30)
Newt Gingrich: Favorable — 26%, Unfavorable — 59%, Not Sure — 15% (-33)
Donald Trump: Favorable –24%, Unfavorable — 66%, Not Sure — 10% (-42)

As more of these polling results are released, I think we’ll see that Romney’s clear advantage over the rest of the potential field is his electability in a general election versus President Obama. Will it be that same appeal he has to independents that proves a hindrance in getting the party’s nomination? Only time will tell.

Poll Roll for Mitt Romney: McClatchy-Marist, NH, Tea Party, American Research Group


Approval numbers for Mitt Romney are on a Poll roll.

And, he’s not even in the race, yet. For the most part, he’s been busy behind the scenes.

Here’s the tally…

McClatchy-Marist Poll: Romney neck and neck with Obama; Trump, Palin far behind

A McClatchy-Marist poll released on Wednesday shows Mitt Romney in a statistical deadheat with President Barack Obama. Obama leads Romney, 46 percent to 45 percent.

The one-point margin represents a dramatic improvement for the former Massachusetts governor, who trailed Obama 51 percent to 38 percent in a McClatchy-Marist poll conducted this past January.

Mike Huckabee was the second-most competitive Republican polled, trailing Obama 48 percent to 43 percent, also a large improvement from the January poll, in which Obama led 50 percent to 38 percent.

However, other potential Republican candidates do not fair as well. Despite Donald Trump’s recent media spotlight and self-generated presidential buzz, the real estate tycoon trails Obama 54 percent to 38 percent.

Former vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin fares even worse, trailing Obama 56 percent to 34 percent.

Read more here.

NH poll shows Romney slightly ahead of Obama

CONCORD, N.H.—A poll of New Hampshire voters shows President Barack Obama beating nearly all of the potential Republican candidates, with two exceptions: Mitt Romney and someone who isn’t even considering a run.

The poll conducted by Dartmouth’s Nelson A. Rockefeller Center shows Romney slightly ahead of Obama. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell was added to the mix to test the perceived absence of leadership qualities among the candidates, and voters preferred him to Obama by a wide margin.

In matchups with other Republicans, Obama was well ahead of Sarah Palin, Haley Barbour, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty and Donald Trump and slightly ahead of Mike Huckabee.

Follow up here.

Three Cups Of Tea Party For Romney


One of the big questions for 2012: which Republican will win the affection of Tea Party voters. While ex-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Rep. Michele Bachmann are the most closely identified with the Tea Party cause, the latest poll finds that it’s ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney who does best among voters who identify as Tea Party supporters.

In a head to head match-up against President Barack Obama, seventy percent of those who say they are Tea Party supporters say they’ll vote for Romney compared to 61 percent for Palin and 60 percent for Bachmann. Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee narrowly trails Romney, taking 69 percent of the Tea Party vote.

According to the poll, 37 percent of these Tea Party supporters say they are Republicans, 11 percent identify as Democrats and 47 percent identify as independents. But, when independents are asked to pick which party they lean toward, the Tea Party universe looks a whole lot more Republican. With leaners, 68 percent of these self-identified Tea Party supporters say they are Republicans, 21 percent are Democrats and 11 percent are independents.
[...]
Romney also runs strongest among those who identify themselves as Republican, taking 85 percent of the GOP vote against President Obama. The candidate who does the worst among Republicans? “The Donald” who takes just 68 percent of the Republican vote.

Additional info here.

(more…)

Suffolk University/WSVN Poll: Romney crushes GOP contenders, Beats Obama in Florida

Former Gov. Mitt Romney is the early front-runner in Florida’s Republican presidential primary, and he was the only Republican challenger who led President Barack Obama in a general election match-up there (43 percent to 42 percent), according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WSVN-Miami) poll of registered voters in Florida.

Republican voters said their top choice for a nominee was Romney (33 percent), followed by Mike Huckabee (14 percent), Newt Gingrich (9 percent), Donald Trump (8 percent) and Sarah Palin (8 percent), with 17 percent undecided.

Thinking about the 2012 Republican Primary for President of the United  States, if the candidates were (RANDOMIZE), for whom will you vote or toward whom would you LEAN at this time?

Mitt Romney 33%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Sarah Palin 8%
Donald Trump 8%
Haley Barbour 4%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Ron Paul 2%
Michele Bachmann 1%

Head-to-head (Obama/Candidate/Undecided)

Mitt Romney 42/43/10 (+1)
Mike Huckabee 44/41/11 (-3)
Newt Gingrich 47/36/13 (-11)
Tim Pawlenty 41/28/25 (-13)
Michele Bachman 45/30/19 (-15)
Donald Trump 49/34/12 (-15)
Sarah Palin 52/34/10 (-18)
Ron Paul 48/30/18 (-18)
Haley Barbour 47/26/22 (-21)

The statewide survey of 600 Florida registered voters was conducted April 10-12, 2011. The margin of error is +/-4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data will be posted at 6 p.m. Wednesday, April 13, 2011, on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site.

The Full Story is HERE.
Marginals can be viewed HERE.
Crosstabs can be viewed HERE.

Sachs/Mason-Dixon Poll Florida: Mitt Romney Top GOP, Obama loses to Romney and Huckabee

The poll, which was conducted April 4 through April 7 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, also found Governor Romney leading with 23 percent supportamong a sample size of 400 likely Republican primary voters. In what seems to be developing into a crowded Republican primary field, 13 candidates were included in the poll, including Governor Mike Huckabee, real estate magnate Donald Trump, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Governor Tim Pawlenty and others.

400 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
QUESTION: If the 2012 Republican primary were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote? (ORDER ROTATED)

Mitt Romney 23%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Donald Trump 13%
Newt Gingrich 11%
Tim Pawlenty 8%
Sarah Palin 5%
Mitch Daniels 4%
Ron Paul 3%
Michelle Bachman 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Haley Barbour -
Undecided 13%

Head-to-Head: (Candidate/Obama/Undecided)

Mitt Romney 48/43/9 (+5)
Mike Huckabee 49/44/7 (+5)
Donald Trump 40/48/12 (-8)
Sarah Palin 39/51/10 (-12)

The poll, which was conducted April 4 through April 7 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, also found Governor Romney leading with 23 percent support among a sample size of 400 likely Republican primary voters. A margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Crosstabs may be viewed HERE.

Mitt Romney Wins 2011 California Republican Party Straw Poll

After several rounds of voting, Mitt Romney won the California Republican Party straw poll:

“At the California Republican Convention late last month, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won a poll of preferred GOP candidates for president in 2012.

After eight rounds of voting, Romney came out on top, besting former House speaker Newt Gingrich (who garnered the second-highest amount of votes) and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton. Big names like former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin were knocked out in early rounds of voting.”

California is a crucial state for anyone hoping to become the next President of the United States since it carries a whopping 55 electoral votes.

In the summer of 2008, Mitt Romney purchased a home in coastal LaJolla, CA to enjoy “the waves” and be nearer to one of his sons who lives in nearby San Diego. Romney is known among the locals as a paper-plates-plastic-utensils down-to-earth guy.

When his book, “No Apology: The Case for American Greatness” was first published, Romney made three stops in California during his book tour.

Along with endorsing a number of CA candidates during the 2010 Primaries, Romney’s Free and Strong America PAC contributed to their campaigns. His endorsements included: Meg Whitman, Tony Strickland, Van Thai Tran, Carly Fiorina, and other political candidates.

In March 2010, Mitt Romney won the Magellan early 2012 Presidential Preference poll. He was also found to be the top Republican contender in California in a Public Policy Poll taken in  November 2010. He also came out on top in the Public Policy Poll taken in February 2011:

“In the presidential race, Mitt Romney continues to show strength in the West and in blue states. He leads California’s primary contest nominally, but the top four are all statistically tied. Romney has 22% over rare second-place finisher Newt Gingrich’s 18%, Sarah Palin’s 16%, and Mike Huckabee’s 15%. 12% prefer an unnamed candidate or are undecided. Ron Paul has a somewhat unusually high 10%, with Tim Pawlenty (3%), Mitch Daniels (2%), and John Thune (1%) about where they usually are.”

If you are in California and would like to help Mitt Romney in California, join the Californians for Romney 2012 on Facebook and help Mitt Romney become the next President of the United States!

~ Jared A.

New Polls Favor Romney in New Hampshire, Iowa


A couple of polls released today show that while Mitt Romney has largely been OFF the media radar screen, he has been ON the minds of hopeful Americans:

Romney Keeps it Close in NH but Obama Trounces Others

Raleigh, N.C. – New Hampshire is a nominal swing state, but it has gone blue in four of
the last five presidential elections. According to PPP’s latest poll of the Granite State,
Mitt Romney is the only potential GOP nominee with a shot at putting New Hampshire’s four electoral votes in play next year. Otherwise, President Obama leads by margins larger than his almost ten-point victory over John McCain in 2008.

Romney essentially ties the president, with 46% to Obama’s 47%. But the president tops Newt Gingrich 52-39, Mike Huckabee 52-38, Donald Trump 51-37, and Sarah Palin 56-34.
[...]
The only candidate who earns more Democratic support than Obama does GOP votes is Romney, who is also the only candidate to tie the president with independents (at 44%). Obama leads the others by 16-22 points with the large 36% plurality who identify with neither party. That essentially explains the varying overall leads.

“Unless Mitt Romney gets the nomination, President Obama should easily win New
Hampshire once again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This state really exemplifies the extent to which the GOP being competitive against Obama is going to depend on who they nominate.”

[...]

(my emphasis)

While other GOP presidential hopefuls have already worn ruts in the ‘woo and coo‘ path through Iowa and jockey to ‘out-devout’ each other, Gov Romney’s focus has been on behind-the-scenes fundamentals. Though he hasn’t yet begun work in Iowa, it’s heartening to see, at this pre-race point, that common-sense conservatives in the Hawkeye State think highly of Romney:

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney enjoy an early advantage among likely Iowa caucus-goers, a poll of Iowa Republicans found Wednesday.

Huckabee would win the Iowa caucuses and Romney would place second, if caucuses including all the potential Republican presidential candidates in the contest were held today, according to a Neighborhood Research survey released Wednesday.

Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), meanwhile, would have an edge in a narrower field of candidates, the poll found.

Twenty-one percent of likely caucus-goers said they would prefer Huckabee, followed by 14 percent for Romney, 9 percent for real estate mogul Donald Trump, 8 percent for Gingrich and 7 percent for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the poll found.

Twelve other candidates registered at 5 percent or below, and 24 percent of respondents were undecided in the first ballot test, which included every possible candidate.

But not all those candidates might run. Huckabee has flirted with a bid, but a number of indicators and quite a bit of insider speculation has suggested he ultimately might not run. Trump’s and Palin’s intentions are also an enigma.

In a second ballot test, excluding all three of those candidates, Romney was the benefactor.

Read more here.

It’s not surprising that Mike Huckabee polls well in Iowa; he’s actively been working to keep his name at the top of the popularity list. It remains to be seen if the FOX News TV host will be a candidate for 2012; if he is, we’ll see how it goes.

Romney says if he runs for president, he’ll run a nationwide campaign, including Iowa. Iowans won’t overlook his economic expertise, his ‘Mr. Fix-it’ record, conservative credentials, and the fact that his leadership was a big help during the recent mid-term elections. His PAC contributed $70,000 last year to help elect Iowa GOP candidates.

*Additional links:

Visits by Potential Republican Candidates to Iowa

No Apology: Believe in America by Mitt Romney

► Jayde Wyatt

Romney Ranked #1, New Natl Republican Senatorial Committee Obama Ad

At last, April has arrived! While today may be filled with high-jinx and tom-foolery, three political news analysts aren’t fooling when they state that the scramble for 2012 starts today:

Money, momentum and the race for the 2012 Republican nomination

The race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination begins today.

Why? Because today marks the first day of the second fundraising quarter of the year. And anyone who is serious about running for president needs to prove between now and June 30 — the quarter’s end — that Republican donors are investing in them.

While money has mattered since political time immemoriam, it may matter more than usual in this GOP presidential fight for two reasons.

First, President Obama is setting himself up to be the greatest fundraising force in American politics. After collecting $750 million in the 2008 campaign, Obama re-election campaign manager Jim Messina has created a program for 400 majors donors to each collect $350,000 by the end of 2011.

The Fix is no math major, but that adds up to $140 million in 2011 alone (thanks, calculator!) if each of the donors can make their number. If 300 make the target — a more likely possibility — that’s still $105 million raised for the Obama re-election effort before a single vote has been cast on the Republican side.

While no Republican — not even former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney — will likely equal Obama in fundraising, any GOP candidate must prove an ability to collect some threshold amount of money over the next three months to prove that he (or she) would be financially viable against Obama next November.
[...]

The first indicator of momentum in any race, but especially a presidential contest, is money. Donors are, after all, investors and convincing them to buy in at the ground level is an early sign of momentum building. (Remember that Howard Dean’s out-of-nowhere candidacy first jumped onto the national radar screen when he raised $7.6 million in the second quarter of 2003.)

And, money follows money. Human nature tends to make us all want to be with the winner — cough, Yankee fans, cough — and the more a candidate raises early on, the more of a winner they look like.
[...]

(my emphasis)

Gov Romney is under no illusions about the progressive money machine he’s up against and the dollar amount it takes to survive a primary. He knows if his fix-it experience and get it done dauntlessness is going to rebuild America, he’s going to need a war chest full of money. From an earlier March fundraiser in NYC:

I think Mitt is a very prudent businessman. He’s very data driven. He knows what he needs to do and he’s focusing on it with laser-like intensity,” said [former MA Governor] Weld. “He sounded not just like a presidential candidate. He sounded like a president.”
[...]

In an interview with The Daily Beast, Eisenberg said his goal is to be out fundraising as much as he can to raise as much money as possible for Romney, and although $50 million may be the goal now, the final number for the entire campaign is much higher.

“I do believe that by the time we’ve reached November 2012…both presidential candidates, Romney and Obama, will have raised and spent a billion dollars,” Eisenberg said.

(my emphasis)

The Fix also ranks 10 potential GOP presidential contenders most likely to win the nomination (I begin at number five):

(more…)

Public Policy Poll: Mitt Romney Still A Threat To Obama In Michigan

A new Public Policy Poll shows Obama is losing support in Michigan:

Three months ago, 50% of Michiganders approved of Obama’s job performance. While the same 45% disapprove now, only 47% approve. That decline has come with both Democrats (from 90-7 to 78-15) and Republicans (13-85 to 4-92), while independents are roughly the same (47-42 now, and 47-44 then).

The same poll shows Mitt Romney is the only candidate who can seriously challenge Obama in that state:

The closest any Republican can come is Mitt Romney’s 48-41 deficit, followed by Mike Huckabee’s 50-41, Newt Gingrich’s 53-37, Sarah Palin’s 55-35, and Walker’s 52-32. As with Stabenow, Obama’s greatest strength is the 13-point Democratic turnout advantage over Republicans, for Romney and Huckabee do a better job of locking up their bases, and Obama leads by only one with independents over Romney and six over Huckabee.

Others included in the poll: Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Scott Walker. Results suggested from this poll are consistent with an earlier PPP poll – that the only serious GOP threat to Obama in Michigan is Mitt Romney.

John Sununu Speaks on Potential 2012 GOP Candidates

Here is a great no holds barred interview from yesterday with ABC’s Amy Walter and Rick Klein featuring special guest John Sununu. Sununu was the former conservative Governor of New Hampshire and former White House Chief of Staff for President George H. W. Bush (#41).

Never one to temper his opinion and, as expected, Sununu doesn’t here, either.


Fast forward to the 3:05 minute mark. (Hear what he has to say about Governor Romney!)



~Update from Ross (3/29/11)

According to sources, the New Hampshire Journal is reporting that Sununu is already helping Romney; wooing Union Leader.

Who Says Tea Partiers Don't Support Mitt Romney?!

Darn straight! I’m a Mitt Romney-supporting, Tea-Partyin’ Utahn …and I’m proud of it!

That’s why I’m confused with headlines flying around the web like the ‘Utah Tea Party Says “no” to Romney‘, and ‘Mitt Romney Feels the Tea Party Heat in Utah‘.

Luke Gunderson at a tea party rally at the Federal Building in SLC. (April 15, 2009)

Luke Gunderson at a tea party rally at the Federal Building in SLC.

I look at the evolution of the tea party and wonder if it has grown beyond me. When I jumped aboard (summer of 2009), it was an ever-growing movement of patriotic citizens that were upset with ridiculous government spending and taxation. The movement back then was a flow of different ideas — centered on fiscal conservatism — that came together in harmonious discontent. Toting homemade banners, colonial hats, and ‘Don’t Tread on Me’ paraphernalia I marched proudly to these events with the understanding that my voice could be heard; and it was.

Fast forward to the current state of the tea party, where (in my case) an individual voice goes unheard. I’m certainly not alone when I say current tea party has left some of us feeling estranged and often disillusioned. What was once a sweeping movement that welcomed the input of any patriot, has become more of a political club with local hierarchies. If you were an early tea party organizer, you are now somehow a spokesperson for the entire group — one that can go as far as deciding which candidates the group will endorse, and which ones you’ll collectively throw under the bus on the grounds of a perceived flaw or two. Granted, there are many factions within the tea party that have branched off and officially formed into advocacy groups that can rightfully assign a spokesperson to represent them… that’s fine by me. The thing that rubs me the wrong way is when somebody assumes a position of superiority in this, a common-man’s movement, and inherently becomes the New York Time’s go-to person when they want to write a story on who the tea party is allegedly going to back in the next race. Enter Utah’s first tea party organizer, David Kirkham.

In 2008, Mitt Romney campaigned on the "Washington is Broken" slogan, a theme the tea party movement would eventually form around.

In 2008, Mitt Romney campaigned on the Washington is Broken slogan, a theme the tea party movement would eventually be formed around.

Kirkham is on record several times saying, among other things, “we oppose” Mitt Romney. Quite a presumption, isn’t it? He may not know it, but by using the word ‘we’, Kirkham brings myself and many others under his umbrella of opposition, and we go unwillingly. We never signed-up to have somebody tell us who we do and don’t support. Plenty of people in my circle (many from Utah) see in Romney a fresh mind, a Washington outsider that has turned financial monstrosities into smooth-operating, profitable entities. We see him as a freedom loving, bold leader that brings innovation to complex situations; a sound fiscal conservative with a lifetime of experience in spending cuts and turnarounds; a charitable figure who puts sweat into each project out of good will, often refusing compensation for the time he’s put in. Indeed, we see Mitt Romney as the physical representation of everything the tea party purports to believe in. Call me a tea party traditionalist, but I wish we could go back to promoting sound policies and fiscal restraint, instead acting like political king-makers.

Now, I’ll be frank in admitting that Romney is not a mega rock star in national tea party circles (as some have made an effort to become), and he isn’t exactly volunteering to be the movement’s frontman. That said, there is sufficient polling evidence that says he’s definitely present in the minds of many fiscally-conscious tea party activists. Just recently, a poll came out of New Hampshire that indicated strong tea party support for Mitt Romney:

In a new WMUR poll, [Romney's] favorability among supporters of the Tea Party is strikingly high – 77 percent and far exceeds any other [potential] candidate.

Romney advisers have argued that even while Romney may struggle with some of the movement’s activists – in large part because of his health care law in Massachusetts – his fiscal message of reducing taxes and cutting spending would resonate with the Tea Party philosophy.

That appears to be born out, at least in New Hampshire. Among Tea Party supporters, Romney’s favorability numbers were far higher than even candidates who are viewed as closely aligned with the movement, such as Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich.

In September of last year, a McClatchy poll showed favorable numbers for Romney among tea party supporters on a national level:

Voters who call themselves conservative preferred Romney to Palin. So did self-described supporters of the tea party movement; 25 percent preferred Romney and 19 percent Palin.”

Further evidence comes from a Marist poll (released in November of last year) that shows Romney edging out potential rivals with 19% of tea party support, compared to Huckabee’s 17% and Palin’s 16%, respectively.

So David Kirkham doesn’t share the same viewpoint with the participants of these polls… again, that’s fine by me. According to Kirkham, his primary reasons for hanging Mitt out to dry have to do with Romney’s initial support of TARP (a stance that tea party favorites Paul Ryan and Herman Cain share, as well) and for a health care bill that Romney instituted in Massachusetts (constitutionally, at the state level, without raising taxes); a plan that many have dubbed ‘RomneyCare’. I could certainly go into contextual detail about why tea party conservatives shouldn’t overlook Romney because of these issues, but we’ve dissected both issues far too much on this site, and to be perfectly honest we’d really rather have a personal sit down with David Kirkham to discuss them. Why not? …He lives right here in Utah Valley!

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Calling all Mitt Romney Supporting, Utah Tea Party Members!

I guess it’s time for this to happen — if only to show that, as a matter of fact, we DO exist: I am hereby forming a group that we’ll call ‘Tea Partiers for Mitt Romney‘. If you feel like you fall into the category, please go to the newly created facebook page and join my efforts (by clicking ‘like’ at the top of the page). I suspect we’ll be recognized and maybe respected if we can produce a decent turnout there.

Let it be known that Mitt Romney was a tea-partier before tea party was cool. He balanced the budget four years in a row — successfully closing the largest deficit in history without raising taxes in Massachusetts, the bluest of states. His poor veto pen assisted in issuing over 1,000 vetos during his term as Governor, hundreds of those vetoes were on spending appropriations. Romney withheld giving the legislators permanent authority to create new committees or to grant committee chairs pay increases. After repeated attempts by the Massachusetts legislature to increase taxes in order to collect more revenue, Romney boldly declared, “The problem here is not revenues; the problem is overspending”.

In early 2007, Romney said these words in the same speech he announced his presidential ambitions:

“I do not believe Washington can be transformed from within by a lifelong politician. There have been too many deals, too many favors, too many entanglements — and too little real world experience managing, guiding, leading.”

“We have lost faith in government, not in just one party, not in just one house, but in government. It is time for innovation and transformation in Washington. It is what our country needs. It is what our people deserve.”



-Luke Gunderson