PPP did a snap poll immediately after the debate tonight. The respondents scored it a slight lead for Obama at 53% to 42% (yeah, it was another +6% Democratic oversample and PPP is a democratic pollster … but I think that just strengthens my arguments). That 11% edge is smaller than the numbers Obama got in the 2nd debate, and MUCH smaller than the numbers Mitt received after the 1st debate. (FYI … CNN’s snap poll scored tonight’s debate it a bit closer at 48%-40% in favor of Obama).
That’s bad news then, right?!?! … that Romney didn’t “win” the debate? Not at all. Mitt continued to rise in the national and swing-state polls over the last week despite Obama’s “win” in the last debate. The last two days especially, Democrats have been shocked and are panicking that the President didn’t get a bounce in the polls from that.
Here’s the secret though … People’s judging of who “wins” debates is solely based on who is the most aggressive candidate that night. Snap polls showed that Joe Biden “won” the VP debate over Paul Ryan … but Biden turned off MANY voters with his style and condescension. Obama wasn’t as bad as Biden was, but his intimidating stares, his incessant attacks at Romney, and his petty condescension will NOT play well with undecided voters … especially with undecided women.
Don’t believe me? That same PPP poll linked above has the following interesting question and cross-tab.
“Did the debate tonight make you more or less likely to vote for BO/MR, or did it not make a difference?”
Among Independents for Obama: More likely 32%, Less likely 48%, No Difference 20% … for a net of MINUS 16%
Among Independents for Romney: More likely 47%, Less likely 35%, No Difference 18% … for a net of PLUS 12%
That’s a HUGE advantage among Independents for Romney based on TONIGHT’S debate. Yeah, Obama sure “won” tonight, eh? Team Romney is fighting to “Win The War” … and will take some lumps in individual battles to make sure the end goal occurs. He was confident, optimistic, and Presidential. Obama was petty, insulting, and snarky. Quite the contrast!
In the CNN snap poll mentioned above (which was a +4% D sample) asked:
“Who did the debate make you more likely to vote for?”
That is THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION IN THE POLL, really the only one that matters, and Mitt came out on top. Another interesting and important question from CNN:
“Who spent more time attacking his opponent?”
Barack Obama 68%
Mitt Romney 21%
Nothing happened tonight to blunt Mitt’s momentum. Obama was swinging for the fences, but failed to connect. Romney easily cleared the credible Commander-In-Chief bar and avoided ANY gaffes. His last few answers and rebuttals were awesome, and his closing statement was EPIC!
We need to work to help make sure it happens, but Mitt’s well on his way to winning this race. Romney has ALL the momentum, and that’s why Obama was attacking desperately. That alone was telling.
UPDATE 12:02 Central … Over at The Ace of Spades there’s an article “Romney Wins the War, Again” that looks like we copied one another. He published it 30 minutes earlier, but I swear I didn’t see it or steal his ideas. Maybe I’m ready to be a big shot blogger if we’re on the same wavelength like that, eh? :)