Due to a late bus (grrrrr) I arrived just in time to catch the back end of Mitt’s speech. The blogger lounge has a balcony and I went out onto it to catch a glimpse of the crowd but found it was completely full with overflow seating. The crowd was very energetic, supportive, and just plain…(what’s the word?) … HUGE. From what I understand team MRC members were near to the front and Luke & Aaron were responsible for the crowd chants that broke out afterwords.

The Twitter reviews, and from what I’ve heard from the gaggles of Romney supporters who seem to be everywhere, indicate that the speech was a knock-out. I am intrigued by few things which make me think we are witnessing the inauguration of the official slogan for Mitt’s 2012 campaign (if he runs of course, wink…wink).

First, the subtitle of Romney’s book No Apology was officially change to “Believe in America”. On a national conference call with fundraisers a couple weeks ago Meg Whitman asked Romney if we were indeed seeing a potential slogan for his 2012 campaign (Mitt did not say yes or no to that). Before the speech Romney asked via Twitter that attendees use the #BelieveInUSA hashtag when tweeting about the speech. Then, when I arrived here and I see the PAC is giving out “Believe in America” stickers that are everywhere. And lastly, of course, the speech itself is actually entitled “Believe in America”. Is this the 2012 camapign slogan? What do you think folks – am I wrong in my guess? I suspect we will know in less than two months…

(Update: Aaron reminds me that Erin McPike of RCP previously speculated on the campaign slogan.)

So… I want to watch this speech as much as you, so I will cease with the banter. Here is Mitt Romney’s 2011 CPAC Speech (from his official YouTube Channel): Believe in America

From Mitt’s official website we have his complete remarks as prepared for delivery:

Read more…

The annual Conservative Political Action Conference is upon us! Thousands of conservatives are converging on the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington, DC to listen to speakers and discussion panels featuring the most prominent conservative leaders of our nation. The 3-day conference also features a highly anticipated straw poll for GOP 2012 contenders (guess who we are rooting for.)

Let’s do this in Q&A format… (please note all times are Eastern)

Q: JUST TELL US… WHEN IS MITT ROMNEY GOING TO SPEAK?
A: Okay, okay. Romney is set to speak Friday morning at 10:30.

Q: Will I be able to watch somehow if I’m not there in person?
A: I believe live video will be available for the whole conference. Go to http://video.cpac.org/ and register. There are videos of speakers from last year available right now. Update: Live video is also available here: http://www.politico.com/livestream/
Q: Who will be the Keynote Speaker this year?
A: Florida Rep. Allen West was confirmed just yesterday to give the closing Keynote speech on Saturday. Glenn Beck was the Keynote speaker last year, and Rush Limbaugh the year before that. Sarah Palin was actually invited to give the speech, but turned it down last week citing a very busy February schedule.

Q: When does the straw poll voting close?
A: Friday 5:00 PM

Q: When are the results of the straw poll announced?
A: Saturday 5:15 PM

Q: Who will be on the ballot for the straw poll?
A: 1. Michele Bachmann, 2. Haley Barbour, 3. Herman Cain, 4. Chris Christie, 5. Mitch Daniels, 6. Newt Gingrich, 7. Mike Huckabee, 8. Jon Huntsman, 9. Gary Johnson, 10. Sarah Palin, 11. Ron Paul, 12. Tim Pawlenty, 13. Mitt Romney, 14. Rick Santorum, 15. John Thune, 16. Other, 17. Undecided

Q: Will Mitt Romney win the straw poll?
A: Doubtful. Ron Paul won last year and is favored to repeat this year as well. The Campaign for Liberty has made no secret of its intention to flood the poll for Ron Paul, just as they were successful at doing last year. Mitt Romney did win the poll in the years 2007 – 2009. My guess is he’ll take a strong second.

Q: Do you know the results of past years?
A: As a matter of fact I do..
2010: Paul 31, Romney 22, Palin 7, Pawlenty 6, Pence 5, six others
2009: Romney 20, Jindal 14, Paul 13, Palin 13, Gingrich 10, Huckabee 7, four others
2008: Romney* 35, McCain* 34, Huckabee 12, Paul 12
2007: Romney 21, Giuliani 17, Brownback 15, Gingrich 14, McCain 12
2006: George Allen 22, McCain 20, Giuliani 12, Rice 10, Frist 6, Tancredo 5, Romney 5, Gingrich 5, Santorum 3, Pataki 3

** It should be noted that Romney announced the suspension of his campaign during his 2008 speech. Prior to his speech 25% of the votes were already in, with Romney leading McCain 44-27. The remaining votes placed after Romney’s speech were in McCain’s favor 37-32.

Q: Do you have video of Romney’s speeches in past years?
A: Yes, we have 2010, 2009, 2008, and 2007. All include video and transcript.

Q: Will any Team MRC members be there?
A: Yes, there will in fact be 5 of us there on site, and we will be joined by Jeff of NYforMitt as well. Nancy French of Evangelical for Mitt will also be in attendance. Aaron, Ross and David, are already there. Luke and I will be arriving on Friday.

Q: How will you guys be covering the on-goings at the conference?
A: Excellent question. We have been afforded a seat in the blogger’s lounge (yes, we’re legit) where we will do write-up for posting on our blog here. We will also be live-tweeting the entire conference from our mega-smart phones – providing news, insights, photos and video as quick as our stubby thumbs will permit. There is live widget at the top of our home page where you can follow all of our tweets. Another option is to follow the list directly on Twitter.com. Or, for the more impatient (and more adventurous) you can try this pre-configured tweetgrid: http://bit.ly/CPACTwits. The grid follows @RomneyCentral, @AaronGundy, @NateGundy, @C0mm1tt3d (Ross), @DavePulfoo, @LukeGundy, @NYforMitt,and @E4Mitt. Other suggested search terms: ‘#cpac11′, ‘Romney’, and ‘MittRomney’.

Q: Will there be any official meet up for Mitt fans and/or MRC readers?
A: I’m not sure. I’d like to call together a gathering to meet everyone and perhaps enjoy some refreshments, but do not have a time/location yet. We will advise if we pick a time and place to meet up. I would hope to do so Friday since that is when Romney is speaking and most supporters would be there.

Q: Do have a schedule of who is speaking and when?
A: Yes. Below is actually an abbreviated schedule. The full 19-page event schedule can be downloaded here: CPAC Schedule (PDF)

Thursday
9:15 Rep. Michelle Bachmann (MN)
9:45 Sen. Ron Johnson (WI)
10:15 Sen. Pat Toomey (PA)
11:15 Rep. Kristi Noem (SD)
11:45 Rep. Raul Labrador (ID)
12:00 Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY)
12:30 Newt Gingrich
1:00 Panel – Reagan at 100: Model for the Next Generation
2:00 Rick Santorum
2:30 Panel – Traditional Marriage and Society
3:15 Wayne LaPierre – CEO of NRA
3:45 Sen. Rand Paul (KY)
4:00 Award presentation to Donald Rumsfeld “Defender of the Constitution”
4:30 Rep. Paul Ryan (WI)

Friday
9:00 Panel – Public Attitudes Toward Security
9:30 Panel – Cutting Spending by the Spenders
10:30 Mitt Romney
11:00 Gov. Luis Fortuño (PR)
11:15 Rep. Tom Price (GA)
11:30 Rep. Marsha Blackburn (TN)
11:55 Presentation “Blogger of the Year” Award to Javier Manjarres of The Shark Tank
12:00 Panel – It’s the Spending Stupid! The Tea Party and the Political Landscape
1:00 Sen John Barrasso (WY)
1:30 Sen. John Thune (SD)
2:00 Sen. Mike Lee (UT)
2:15 Panel – Do We Need a Constitutional Amendment to Stop the Spending?
3:00 Tim Pawlenty
3:30 Rep. Ron Paul (TX)
4:00 Gov. Rick Perry (TX)
4:30 Herman Cain

Saturday
9:00 Andrew Breitbart
9:30 Gov. Haley Barbour (MS)
10:00 David Horowitz
10:15 Panel – Defending Free Speech on Campus
11:00 Rep. Connie Mack (FL)
11:30 Panel – Bleeding America Dry: The Threat of the Public Sector Unions
12:15 Panel – Repealing Obamacare: In the States, In Courts, and In Congress
1:00 Ambassador John Bolton
1:30 Panel – The Nuclear Threat: China and North Korea
2:20 Lifetime Achievement Award Presentation to Pat Boone
2:30 Panel – How to Think About Afghanistan
3:15 Jonah Goldberg
3:45 Ann Coulter
4:15 Rep. Peter Roskam (IL)
4:30 Panel – Changing the Conversation: Winning with Minorities, Women, and Independents
5:15 Straw Poll Results
5:30 Key Note Speaker Rep. Allen West (FL)

Q: Wow, sounds like a lot of fun and a lot of work. Anything I can do to help?
A: Yes, yes, and yes. Our costs to attend are substantial, and we are not paid for efforts. We could certainly appreciate sponsorship to help recoup some costs for the event (none of us being independently wealthy ) We’ve already raised $500, and would like to raise about $500 more. Donate at the link below, or buy something in our Mitt Romney 2012 store. All of our items in the store are already paid for now so any purchase would go directly to helping us out a CPAC. Thanks a ton!

~Nate Gunderson

Hello stalwart Mitt fans! I am making an official request for financial help in order to send members of our hardworking team to CPAC this year. Since we are an independent site and have no financial backers we are left to our own means in order to make this trip. We have two team members Ross and Dave P. who are already attending at their own expense. There are 4 of us who’d like attend but our respective personal finances would not allow for that. Collectively we have put in literally thousands of hours to produce this website, and no team member receives compensation for doing so. Time is something we have, and have sacrificed. Money is something we have not. Will you help us?

If we are able to attend we will do our best to promote Romney for President, promote this site, and provide frequent and interesting updates on CPAC. We will bring our video and still cameras, laptops and our iphones, everything at our disposal to bring you live updates on this site and via Twitter.

It will cost us about $500 per person to attend. That cost includes airfare, hotel, and cost of registration. If there were a little extra we’d also like to throw a little lunch reception to meet with any of our readers who may be attending also. (I highly recommend attending if you are able. I attended last year and had an absolute blast.)

Depending on how much we raise, this is what we will do with the money:

$500 – We send Aaron the stalwart.
$1000 – We send Luke our SEO expert and page manager (He’s got the nice camera, too.)
$1500 – We send dedicated contributor Jared A.
$2012 – I (Nate G.) will attend myself. I have attended before and want to make sure the younger chaps get an opportunity first.
$2300 – We will rent a meeting room and hold a small lunch meet-up where we can train team members and any readers who want to attend.

Anything more than that we will use to bring promotional items such as fliers, button, bumper sticker, and perhaps some of our t-shirts.

Can you help by contributing $100 or more? Even $5 will help. But my favorite is $20.12, just to send a message. Just click the button to donate.

We will run this drive through the day and keep you posted on our progress. Thanks!

~Nate Gunderson

Update: Wahooo! We just cleared $500 – Aaron is packing his bags as we speak! Now we just need another $500 to send Luke… Thank you so much!

Romney is on FOX’s Hannity show tonight to discuss Obama’s State of the Union speech yesterday. That chat box will be right here until tomorrow morning.

(chat box is back at the side bar)

Mark DeMoss is no small name in the evangelical and political world. In Mitt Romney’s 2008 run for the presidency DeMoss was a very public, prominent supporter and volunteer for the campaign. DeMoss gives one of the first full-blown endorsements (for Romney) of the 2012 season with a 5-page letter addressed to “Conservative and Evangelical Leaders.” Politico broke the news of the letter yesterday saying the memo was sent to “about 200 top pastors, donors, intellectuals and leaders on the Christian right.”

We contacted the DeMoss Group for permission to post the letter in it’s entirety on our website, to which they did not object. But before I post the letter I want to include a very nice DeMoss intro I found in a 2007 interview posted on the Article 6 Blog:

Mark founded The DeMoss Group, an Atlanta-based public relations firm, in 1991. The firm describes itself as specializing in serving Christian organizations and causes and as the largest such agency in the country. Their clients include:The Billy Graham Evangelistic Association; Samaritan’s Purse & Franklin Graham; Prison Fellowship and Chuck Colson; Campus Crusade for Christ; Focus on the Family; Bishop TD Jakes; American Center for Law & Justice; and Teen Mania.

Prior to starting the firm Mark served as chief-of-staff and spokesperson for Jerry Falwell in Lynchburg, Virginia for 8 years, a period which included the height of popularity of the Moral Majority. The DeMoss Group has worked closely with more than 100 faith-based organizations in the past 16 years and Mark has provided strategic communications counsel to dozens of religious leaders during that time. In March 2007, Thomas Nelson publishers released Mark’s first book, The Little Red Book of Wisdom. Mark describes the book, already in its third printing, as “presenting wisdom for your professional life and wisdom for your personal life.”

Mark Demoss’ letter:
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To: Conservative and Evangelical Leaders
From: Mark DeMoss
Date: January 18, 2011
Subject: A New Litmus Test for 2012

_________________________________________________________________________

Happy New Year! One of the things I like about the period between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day is the time it gives me to think—think about my family, my business, and yes, politics. Perhaps like you, I have spent considerable time recently thinking about the 2012 presidential election and decided to share some thoughts with conservative and evangelical leaders and friends.

I supported Mitt Romney in 2008. Having had two more years to consider that decision I will be supporting him again, should he decide to run. Here’s how I arrived at that decision—see if this makes sense for you.

First, I’ve arrived at four conclusions:

Read more…

From RCP:

Rich Beeson, a Republican operative who has worked as a political director at the Republican National Committee and was most recently a partner at the voter contact firm FLS Connect, will be Romney’s political director. Beeson has already moved his family to Massachusetts for his new role.

A GOP source who worked against Romney in the last campaign said Beeson was a savvy hire for Romney’s team, as he brings an outsider perspective to Romney’s Boston inner circle.

[...]

And for polling, Romney is bringing on Neil Newhouse, a partner at the polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, GOP sources told RealClearPolitics.

Newhouse was named “pollster of the year” by the American Association of Political Consultants for his polling efforts in Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown’s successful campaign last year.

I suspect we’ll be seeing a few more of these stories as the campaign ramps up and we approach an official announcement. It’s only a matter of time now.

~Nate G.

UPDATE by Jayde: Politico’s Ben Smith believes Governor Romney is making preparations for an April presidential campaign announcement:

His aides have told other Republicans that he expects to launch his campaign in April.

UPDATE 2 by Nate: Being unfamiliar with Beeson and Newhouse I tried to find some photos or bios on them. Here is a bio for Rich Beeson at FLS connect.

Also here is a Washington Post article co-written by Neil Newhouse in January of 2010.

UPDATE 3 by Nate: Jennifer Rubin of The Washington post adds some valuable background and insight into Team Romney and of the need to make changes from the 2008 team:

It should be noted that close Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom was the top strategist on the winning Brown campaign.

This is classic Romney — hire the best people. Although he came up short in 2008, it was widely agreed upon in GOP circles that the Romney staff was the best organized, the most effective and took its candidate as far he could go in that election cycle. A GOP operative familiar with Romney’s operation (but not on the campaign) sees something else: “These are really strong moves that bring a fresh perspective to Boston.” In other words, the Romney team in 2012 won’t be identical to the 2008 team.

This is not a function of Romney’s chances in 2012 or the experience staffers had in 2008. It is simply the reality that many former Romney staffers have wound up in plum D.C. jobs. For example, his 2008 director of communications, Kevin Madden, is now the executive vice president for public affairs for JDA Frontline. Carl Forti, Romney’s 2008 political director, now is a major figure in Karl Rove’s American Crossroads. Joe Pounder, who was the 2008 rapid response director, had a stint as then-Minority Whip Eric Cantor’s press secretary and is now Marco Rubio’s communications director. Rubio’s office has other Romney alums, including policy director Sally Canfield and media director Alex Burgos. Perhaps obtaining a job in the GOP’s newest rock star’s senate office is the best indicator of the people Romney employed last time.

Meanwhile, Gail Gitcho, who was a press secretary for Romney, and Romney’s former head of rapid response, Colin Reed, are now in Brown’s office.

Permit a personal moment for me as I post on some of the goings-on in the Gundy Clan.

First, I’d like to congratulate my brother and fellow team member Aaron on becoming first-time father over the weekend. He and his wife welcomed in Jude Adams Gunderson on New Years Day. Jude weighed in at a healthy 7lbs 4oz and was 19 inches long, and according to Aaron he is extremely handsome. Both baby Jude and mommy are doing very well, but Aaron is still reeling from shock. I kid. But seriously, I doubt Jude’s parent are fully aware of the work and sleepless nights that are about to hit them. Since Jude can’t quite read, write, or even vote – we’ll just make him an honorary team member.

Second, we’d like to welcome back our youngest brother Zach to the team. He returned New Years Eve from a 2-year church mission in Hong Kong where he learned Mandarin Chinese. Zach has supported Romney with us for a long-time and even went with us 3 years ago to Iowa to volunteer for the caucuses – which happened to take place exactly 3 years ago yesterday. Little Zachy is very easy-going and fun-loving, and yes ladies, he is available.

Now:

Then:

Better late than never:
Earlier in 2010 I wanted to recognize and congratulate team member Dave P. on his journey into the happily-ever-after. Dave got married in June and we still wish him the best as he ventures into life’s greatest institution.

~Nate G.

Update: Process complete! That was many times faster than I envisioned. If you can’t access the site yet you should be able to very soon as the update propagates through various nameservers.

I just want to make PlanetRomney.org readers aware that the site may go down for a day or so as I am transferring the domain to a new registrar. This may happen anytime within the next 5 days. So, if you see it go down soon there’s no need to worry.

I also want to make a comment about the Planet Romney site. The website is in the exact same state in which I set it up exactly four years ago with two of my brothers (Gabe and Jordan, not Luke and Aaron whom you may know.) My brothers were actually the architects of the site and did the programming for it. Since it’s inception the site has been hosted on one of my brothers’ servers, to which I have not had physical access. Soon I hope to get it moved over to my host so I can have direct access which would allow me to do some minor housekeeping and improve the look and feel of the site as well. When? I don’t know – been trying to get it done for a while now, but hope within the next month or so.

Thank you for reading, and thanks for supporting Governor Romney for President.
-Nate Gunderson

In an op-ed published by USA Today, Mitt Romney offers expert analysis on why GOP should reject the so-called compromise from Obama on taxes. Not knowing the details of the plan (except that DeMint would likely filibuster it), I have withheld judgment on the this new tax deal between GOP leaders and the White House – but Romney’s words here have been a real eye-opener. He explains why the plan is short-sighted, why it would not yield any significant job growth, and why the GOP should therefore reject it.

Below is a preview and a link.

Romney: Why tax cut is a bad deal (USA Today)

Death and taxes, it is said, are life’s only two certainties. But in the wake of President Obama’s tax compromise with congressional Republicans, only death retains the status of certainty: The future for taxes has been left up in the air. And uncertainty is not a friend of investment, growth and job creation.

The deal has several key features. It reduces payroll taxes, extends unemployment benefits and keeps current tax rates intact. So far, so good. But intermixed with the benefits are considerable costs of consequence. Given the unambiguous message that the American people sent to Washington in November, it is difficult to understand how our political leaders could have reached such a disappointing agreement. The new, more conservative Congress should reach a better solution.

The deal keeps current tax rates from rising to pre-Bush era levels for two years. But in 2013, unless Congress acts again, rates will increase dramatically.

Extension temporary

Of course, delay now is better than an immediate tax hike. But because the extension is only temporary, a large portion of the investment and job growth that characteristically accompanies low taxes will be lost. When entrepreneurs and employers make decisions to start or expand an enterprise, uncertainty about tax rates translates directly into a reduced propensity to invest and to hire. With only a two-year extension, investors know that before their returns are realized, tax rates may be jacked up to the levels favored by President Obama. So while the tax deal will succeed in temporarily putting more money in the hands of consumers, it will fail to deliver its full potential for creating lasting growth.

It will also add to the deficit. In many cases, lowering taxes can actually increase government revenues. If new businesses, new investments and new hiring are spurred by the prospects of better after-tax returns, the taxes paid by these new or growing businesses and employees can more than make up for the lower rates of taxation. But once again, because the tax deal is temporary, a large portion of this beneficent effect is missing. What some are calling a grand compromise is not grand at all, except in its price tag. The total package will cost nearly $1 trillion, resulting in substantial new borrowing at a time when we are already drowning in red ink.

Read more at USA Today

Of course I have to include the brilliant closing line:

…But the long term health of our great engine of prosperity will remain very much in doubt. To the twin inevitabilities of death and taxes, we may now have to add persistent high unemployment.

~Nate G.

Welcome to the first edition of the Gundy Power Rankings for the GOP Presidential Race – compiled by myself (Nate) along with my brothers Luke and Aaron. Yes, this is mostly for fun as we don’t consider ourselves as expert pundits. We’re just average Joes with an opinion and we’re going to lay it out for you. You can agree or disagree with us all you want – just remember we’re entitled to our own opinions. Here goes…

December GOP Presidential Power Rankings

1. Mitt Romney – To the casual observer it may seem that Romney had disappeared for portions of 2009 and 2010, but to political junkies, it seems like Mitt never stopped running since dropping out of the race in early February of 2008. He has remained extremely loyal to the Republican party purposefully avoiding any opportunity to speak critically of fellow GOPers. Despite the bitter 2008 race and bad blood between he and McCain, Romney quickly and forcefully backed his previous opponent, showing he can put the past behind him for the good of the party. His team intact, he will hit the ground running with his expanded network and increased fundraising prowess.
Strengths: Fundraising, network, 2008 experience, favorability among independents and moderates. More than any other candidate Romney will be able to compete in nearly every state due to an extremely organized ground game and sheer fundraising power. Unlike 2008 Romney won’t have to launch an early monstrously enormous campaign to get his 2% name recognition raised. And as is the case with any good businessman you learn from past failures; Team Romney already seems keen on avoiding some missteps of the last run around.
Weaknesses: RomneyCare. The passing of ObamaCare has been the single greatest detriment to Romney’s potential to win the 2012 nomination. Team Romney must have a comprehensive plan to respond to critics on this issue. As of yet Romney has only defended his plan when specifically asked about it in interviews – perhaps to avoid speculation of him running in 2012. Our guess is when he announces they will have a battle plan ready to attempt to squelch concerns. Critical opinion of RomneyCare is a hurdle for Romney right now, but not an insurmountable one. As a note we’d like to add that the “Mormon issue” did not make Romney lose in 2008 (though it had moderate effect); it will not have “game-changing” effect this time around either.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: edging downward
Odds of running: 99% – Only thing stopping Romney from running is if the health of his wife deteriorates, or his own for that matter.
Probable announcement date: Early April

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2. Sarah Palin – Until recently we would have Palin in 3rd behind Huckabee, but currently her national polling has improved, as well as the fundraising for her PAC. Palin’s unconventional methods of “running” make her difficult to place in the power rankings; she has been all over the board on other lists. She has the following and energy necessary to mount a serious primary campaign, but often neglects those things that typical candidates-in-waiting do – ie. ground-game formation in early primary states, though there has been an uptick of this activity recently. She is on her way to various foreign destinations, a move that is likely to burnish her foreign policy credentials. Palin also just finished a promotional tour for her second book since running on the national GOP ticket: America by Heart. All these recent moves (book, travel, fundraising, polls) force us to believe she will certainly run, whereas a few months ago we were doubtful.
Strengths: Star power. Palin dominates the airwaves, headlines, and google searches. Her message gets out there loud and clear at any time of her choosing, employing her Facebook and Twitter accounts to great advantage. She also has very energetic, loyal, and vocal fans. They could push any close race to her advantage simply by overwhelming the turnout.
Weaknesses: Over-exposure. Some folks won’t react well to the all-Palin-all-the-time atmosphere that currently pervades the national news cycle. There is already evidence of push-back within both the liberal and conservative communities. Extended all-out exposure will force everyone to either really like her, or seriously dislike her. This divisiveness amongst voters does not bode well for a national campaign, should she advance to that stage. Naysayers will certainly bring up the fact she left office early as Governor of Alaska. As with Romney’s weaknesses, these are not insurmountable. We suggest she avoid over-exposure by simply not responding to negative comments directed at her. Media, and the consumers of gossip, feed off of such drama.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: ticking upward
Odds of running: 95% – Who can resist the prodding of millions of fans?
Probable announcement date: Early July

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3. Mike Huckabee – A strong showing in 2008, coupled with a popular weekend talk show on FOX keeps Mike Huckabee in the public eye. Huckabee maintains a spot in the top-tier mainly due to his positive national polling amongst GOP, as well as versus Obama. Huck has great speaking skills that that keep give him an advantageous likability factor, proven also by his favorability ratings. With a good ol’ southern demeanor and high-standing amongst evangelicals he is sure to be a force reckoned with in 2012. In 2008, Huckabee had to climb onto the national stage of nowhere just as Romney had done several months earlier. But, again like Romney, he will not have the same name ID struggles that he had in 2008. This time it’s a whole different game plan. Look for a very late entry as Huck continues to benefit financially, politically, and legally from his FOX contract.
Strengths: Huckabee is the SoCon man. Anyone with religious and social conservative leanings will naturally gravitate to Huckabee, and these types of voters exist en masse in practically every state, but particularly in the South. They’ve shown in Iowa that they can organize and show up at the polls in numbers. Plus, as Huckabee has highlighted recently, he consistently polls well against Obama.
Weaknesses: Fundraising. We view this as a must for Huckabee and he still hasn’t learned quite how to do it. It will be of vital importance if there is not a clear leader in the race after the initial primary contests. Team Huck will be out of gas if it goes into extra-innings. Huck will need to sew up the nomination quickly, or learn to do some serious fundraising if he wants to avoid this danger. The problem is that if he does sew it up early, he’ll face the same problem in the general election.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: edging upward
Odds of running: 90% – Can he afford to run and pay the mortgage on his new $3 million house?
Probable announcement date: Mid July

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4. Newt Gingrich – The man of ideas has constantly toyed with the idea of running for the GOP nomination. We believe him when he says he’ll only run if he feels the support is there and if we has a good shot of winning – but we are inclined to believe that that full support is not there. Gingrich may realize this as he weighs his options, but even so may continue to flirt with a run because its good business – it helps him sell books and make more media appearances. We aren’t the only ones to note that his tweets and other public comments typically contain some form of self promotion; ie, “come visit me at this book signing” or “watch me on this program at this time”. This behavior makes us think that an actual run may not be 1st priority on Newt’s list.
Strengths: Widely known as the guy with the best new ideas – the GOP policy man. He’s an eloquent speaker and has years of experience and plenty of star power to boot.
Weaknesses: Baggage. There are number items in the closet that aren’t often discussed, but will certainly come out if Newt makes the leap into candidacy. Also, Newt has never run a national campaign and currently has no organization from which to mount a run. He’d have to rely on his star power to get a successful campaign launched.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: neutral
Odds of running: 40%
Probable announcement date: late March (he has stated he would make the decision about this time)

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5. Tim Pawlenty – T-Paw has taken all the steps to indicate he is most definitely running for President: not seeking another term in MN, formed a PAC and continues aggressive fundraising, multiple trips to Iowa, new book, etc, and etc. One will note that his recently announced book tour has 11 stops which includes 2 stops in Iowa and 2 stops in New Hampshire. Though Pawlenty lacks national name ID, he is practically in the same position Mitt Romney was in 4 years ago. Pawlenty has been a formidable fundraiser, but still falls behind Romney and Palin. It will be vital for Pawlenty to have extremely successful appearances at debates or his campaign will simply not gain the traction needed to win some primaries.
Strengths: Ability to raise funds with little national notoriety. Charismatic and likable.
Weaknesses: Doesn’t seem to instill excitement in a large following. He needs to find some way to give his campaign serious traction.

Previous Rank: n/a
Momentum: neutral
Odds of running: 99%
Probable announcement date: Late January (needs to announce early to his name out there)

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The Dark Horses:
Mike Pence: Says all the right things and appeals to many types of voters. Given successful appearances in the debates, he is our top pick to most likely break into the ranks of the top tier. All signs point to a run unless he chooses to run for Governor of Indiana instead.
John Thune: Seems to have a lot going for him, but will he get traction given the competition? We’re not confident he is running.
Haley Barbour: A very powerful and respected force in the GOP. We think the fact that he was a lobbyist for the tobacco industry may put dampers on voter support should he run. Also not sure he is in the race.
Ron Paul: Still has no chance of winning, but he will run to get his agenda out on the national stage. He stayed in the race last time until the last moment, far beyond the point where it was known he had no chance of a comeback. He will have the same 10% of support he had last time, but not much more.
Mitch Daniels: Recent comments regarding a “truce on social issues” make him a non-starter for many SoCons, which in great likelihood makes his campaign a non-starter as well, despite his excellent record as IN Governor.

Rick Santorum: Will need to do a lot of work, build a lot of support, and have a lot of luck to come close to winning. He is a strong candidate to pick up momentum from SoCons after the debates start.

There it is. Let us know where we’re wrong, and be sure to give us your list as well. Until next time…

~The Gunderson Bros., Nate, Luke and Aaron.