Conventional wisdom says the winner of Ohio will be our next president. Odds are that’s the case. You’ve heard the history: no Republican president has ever won the White House without it. But late breaking polls show Mitt has multiple paths to victory–paths where states formerly thought in the tank for Obama could put Mitt on top regardless.
Don’t get me wrong. Ohio is clearly still in play and I think we can win there. But if we go by the RealClearPoliitcs “No Toss Ups” map, which solely reflects current polling, even if within the margin of error, we’d believe Obama would win 290 electoral votes to 248. Swing states Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all blue on this map. People are very focused on Ohio with its 18 electoral college votes. But if you think Ohio being on that map spells an Obama victory, not so fast…polling out today show Mitt-mentum in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Together they represent twice the number of electoral college votes as Ohio. Do the quick math: take 36 from Obama’s 290 and you get 254, giving Mitt 284 and the win.
The latest Michigan poll actually puts Mitt up by 1. The latest poll in Pennsylvania shows a tie. Both polls’ results are well within the margin of error. The Obama camp is nervous enough about Pennsylvania it has sent in its designated hitter, Bill Clinton, to make four visits before Tuesday. Does that indicate they think Pennsylvania’s in the bag? Not at all.
The true bottom line here is that despite what you hear, none of these states is in the tank for anybody. The map shows Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in Mitt’s column, but we will have to work to keep them there. The side that marshals its resources and gets out the vote in all these states is the side that will win. If that means Mitt gets Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, however, he’ll be President-elect Romney on Tuesday night. We may not know it until later in the week as they count and re-count, but Mitt would win.
One thing we do know: if Mitt’s elected, he’ll hit the ground running. Politico recently reported that Mitt’s team, without taking anything for granted, was quietly preparing to be ready to get to work immediately, just in case. He already has a plan for the first 200 days. Meanwhile, apparently at the White House this nonsense of having to justify why they deserve a second term has just been exhausting. Here’s our current Vice President divulging the administration’s plans if they’re back in office: