Romney: More to Gain Than to Lose in Last Debate

Well, the final Presidential debate will be over in less than 24 hours.

I’m sensing a certain level of stress among some Romney supporters in the lead up to this debate. Sure, it’s human nature to feel anxious just before a big event … especially when we are so invested in Mitt’s success. But I’m not nervous one bit, and here’s why ….

Governor (soon to be “President Elect”) Romney has much more to gain than to lose in this debate. It’s Obama that has the tough job tonight. The non-incumbent challenger generally has a low-bar to clear in these debates. They only have to 1) show that they can credibly be Commander-in-Chief and 2) avoid major gaffes. Mitt has shown that he is more than capable of achieving this based on his first two debate showings.

Much of the “who won the debate?” game is about expectations. Obama was widely expected to be a superior debater/communicator, and it was a race-changing event when he lost the first debate so dramatically. This set up debate number two, where Obama had reset his bar down to the floor. As such, many observers felt that he “won” the second debate (by a much narrower margin than the 1st debate, and more on style than on actual issues according to polls). But the President’s “win” was really more of a “most improved” award … we’ve seen no bounce in the polls for him at all.

Conventional wisdom is that Obama is supposed to trounce Governor Romney tonight, since the topic is Foreign Policy. The problem for Obama, is that his supposed foreign policy superiority is already “baked into the cake” of his poll numbers/support. Obama’s problem arises from the fact that his foreign policy successes begin and end with “Bin Laden is dead.” Sure, that’s a HUGE point, but it’s sort of hard to talk about THAT for 90 minutes straight. And no voter is going to change his mind to vote for Obama on this issue. “Hey yeah, Obama got Bin Laden … I had forgotten that. I guess I’ll vote for him now.”

Even those formerly on Obama’s foreign policy team decidedly do NOT see this as a strength for him (be sure to read that scathing rebuke!).

The debate will give Mitt an opportunity to, once again, unexpectedly impress voters on the depth and breadth of his international experience and knowledge. The media have painted him as a lightweight on foreign policy, someone out of his depth. Mitt can and will highlight his substantial foreign exposure through his public, private, and religious experiences.

The wildcard issue for tonight is Banghazi … and not in a good way for Obama.

Despite the President’s higher foreign policy numbers in general, this recent Ohio poll (that was even a +8% Dem sample) showed Mitt UP 49%-47% on the question: “Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney more on the issue of Libya?” Mitt did miss an opportunity to fully expose Obama on Libya in debate #2. Don’t expect a replay of that tonight …

About :

Jeff has been blogging for Romney since living in Iowa in 2006, when, as a physician, he was drawn to study Romney’s MA healthcare reform plan. A native of California, Jeff now claims to be a proud southern transplant (he currently lives and practices as a vitreoretinal surgeon in Birmingham with his wife and six kids) having lived in Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana for nearly all of the last 15 years. His recent hobby is doing triathlons, having completed his first (and only) Ironman Triathlon this past May.

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8 Responses to Romney: More to Gain Than to Lose in Last Debate

  1. Annette S says:

    I am surprised to hear that conventional wisdom is saying that Obama will trounce Romney this evening. No way do I believe that Obama will trounce Romney, in fact, I expect Romney to edge out Obama. I believe Romney will be right on his game due to his debate strategy, wit, and depth of knowledge of foreign affairs. This will be a shining moment for Romney and will add to the momentum that has started with the first two debates.

    With this final debate, Romney will not have to worry about a town hall format and can bring to Obama. I am looking forward to it!


  2. Bill says:

    I agree Annette S. I cannot envision Obama winning a debate on foreign policy period. Obama’s foreign policy has been a abysmal failure. The only thing Obama can really say is he got Bin Laden…. which he really did not. Sure they got him during after Obama was in office… BUT a lot of the work that lead to that was thanks to President Bush’s efforts.

    And Libya and Iran are but nothing disaster topics for Obama.

    Just remember… they thought Obama was going to win the first debate… Romney CRUSHED Obama.

  3. AfricanforRomney says:

    Gov Romney is a proven best debater and will do great tonight. We know Obama won the 2nd debate for “interrption debate”, uncivility debate.

    Obama has been associating Gov Romney and GOP with W Bush so, Gov Romney MUST to tell the viewers he’s not a warmonger in a very convincing manner also separating himself from W Bush Policy.

    I’ve confidence, Gov Romney will EXPOSE Obama’s juvenial foreign policy failures!

  4. Alma Olvera says:

    please Romney winnnnn thissss debate !! god bless you don`t let the moderator stop you !! OBAMA RECORD SPEAKS FOR IT`S SELF!!

  5. MaryforMitt says:

    Don’t people get that the killing of our ambassador on 9/11 was tit for tat for our killing bin Laden? Obama trash-talking about getting bin Laden is just adding fuel to the terrorists’ fire. I know Mitt can set a more mature tone. I hope he actually points this out!

  6. Fer says:

    If Obama accuses Romney of politicizing the Libya attack: “It’s not politics. It’s personal. I knew some of the people in that embassy who were killed. It should be personal to all Americans when our ambassador and service men are killed in foreign soil by a terrorist attack, and every American has a right to know why continued requests for extra security by the ambassador where denied by the administration, and why the false narrative of the youtube video lasted as long as it did”.

  7. Annette S says:

    Bill…I agree. All this conventional wisdom about Obama easily defeating Romney has to becoming from the left. I have always been very annoyed by polls showing that people trust Obama over Romney on foreign policy. How much foreign policy did Obama have before becoming POTUS?

    Romney will show that Obama’s soft styled foreign policy approach of extending a hand to our enemies and alienating out allies is the wrong course to take. Our position in the world is now unclear to our allies and emboldening our enemies. Obama said himself that you can’t have a strong national security with a weak economy and look at Obama’s economic record. Obama’s record for Federal drilling is dismal and leaves us depending on our enemies for oil. Romney will argue PEACE through STRENGTH which Obama is not doing.

    Libya will definitely be a part of the debate. I think Romney will use it as evidence that Obama has a flawed foreign policy approach. It will be interesting to see how Romney plays the Libya issue into his overall debate strategy.

    Obama is no match for Romney. Romney will pick his battles wisely and hammer home the points that need to be brought in front of the American people. I believe Romney will be very aggressive with the wit and intellect to articulate his message. Look out Obama!


  8. Annette S says:

    Fer….I agree with you. Romney has to reveal Obama’s deception concerning the Libya attacks and also his telling supporters that Al Qaeda is on the run or nearly defeated. The Obama administration is not telling the truth.