As with the Republican Primary, in Mitt Romney’s General Election strategy – math matters!
Foremost in any Presidential campaign, and especially this one, is the candidate, his message, competency and experience. Even so, campaign strategies are not to be trifled with. We witnessed how important this was in the recent Republican Primary campaign. A key strategic focus of the Romney campaign was “delegates,” and in the end it is delegates that determine the Republican nominee. An important part of Mitt Romney’s Primary success came in winning delegates. Of course, he has also won the hearts of the Republican Party membership, as we now see a coalescing and unifying of the Party and its leadership behind him. Not surprisingly, this has happened far more quickly than many thought. In fact, this coalescence of the Party behind the most capable Presidential candidate in our lifetime, and his inspired leadership and message, is what will win the day in November.
Although different in many respects, the General Election cycle is similar to the Primary in the sense that what matters is “electoral votes.” As was clearly evidenced during the Bush Gore election, the importance of the popular vote is trumped by the importance of the electoral votes.
So what does the electoral map tell us? What is the mainstream media spin? What is the truth?
The mainstream media, and the pundits, will tell you that Barack Obama has the advantage as the incumbent. Of course, they said that about Jimmy Carter as well and we all know how that ended, thankfully.
Reasoned facts –
–Mitt Romney will win all states carried by John McCain in 2008 – 173 electoral votes
(Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Alaska, Louisiana, Utah, Arizona, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia)
–Mitt Romney will most likely win historically red states, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia – 46 electoral votes
–Mitt Romney can win Ohio and Florida – 47 electoral votes
–Mitt Romney then only needs to win 4 more electoral votes for 270. Pick any other state, or combination thereof – Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire…
Bottom line – Mitt Romney is in a very strong position to win in November. Most polls have him leading on the hard issues – the economy, jobs and energy. Interestingly, the swing states that have suffered economically under Obama are: Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado and others. Irrespective of the mainstream media spin to the contrary, people are suffering and will continue to struggle under the oppressive economic and energy policies of Obama. Mitt Romney’s message to America, recently given in his acceptance speech on April 24th, is clear and distinctive. It has and will continue to resonate with Americans. Alternatively, the tone and campaign of distortion and destruction by Obama will be equally clear. America will have a choice, and given our choice in 2008, the better choice will seem more clear in 2012, and that choice will be for freedom, strength and Mitt Romney.
On another point, as the Republican Primary is all but ended and the battle for the nomination is past, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are now very close in favorability and likability polls. Even so, this election will be won on competence and capacity more than likability; but we have six months to introduce Mitt Romney to the nation! And like those who have come to know Mitt Romney, those who don’t know him will learn of him and come to like him – a lot! At the end of the process, Mitt Romney will win on competence, experience, capacity and trust, and likability!