The Keystone State race just got a little more interesting. According to a poll released last night by Public Policy Polling Governor Romney leads former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum by a 5 point margin, and whereas Romney was down by 18 points last month that makes for a 23 point swing in one month!
The PA numbers:
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Rick Santorum has staked his continued candidacy hopes in winning his home state. Pennsylvania is one of five states to hold their primary contests coming up on April 24. The other four states (NY, DE, CT, RI) are each a “gimme” for the Governor. If Romney wins a clean sweep of those four PLUS Pennsylvania… well it will officially be more over than it already is now.
Anyone else think it’s quite telling that Santorum may lose his home state, and Romney won his 72-12? A 60 point margin!
Below the fold: cross-tab takeaways, and a “When will Santorum exit the race?” poll.
Thoughts on the cross-tabs for this poll:
- 36% think Santorum has a “realistic chance” at winning the nomination. How do you figure? He has won approx 24% of the delegates so far, and need 80% of the remaining to seal the deal. If Ronald Reagan himself were reincarnated today, even he would find that a difficult feat.
- Santorum leads by 1 point if you remove Gingrich from the poll.
- Romney’s poll numbers improve as you up the age categories, proving once again that people generally get wiser as they get older.
- The winner of the “very liberal” subgroup is…. Ron Paul, by 11 points.
- Romney favorability numbers amongst Evangelicals in only lukewarm (49-40, +9) compared to Santorum’s (72-21, +51). More than anything this just shows that identity politics is alive and well in the GOP (at least the PA GOP).
Exit poll:
Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.
Nate owns and manages a small souvenir manufacturing business. He and his wife of 12 years have 2 children. Nate has been blogging for Mitt Romney since late 2006 and is co-founder and editor of MittRomneyCentral.com.
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Santorum is a very persistent and stubborn individual. So I can see him going for the next round of primaries in spite of the polls. However, having to give a concession speech after losing in his home state would be humiliating for him.
To Barbara Holmes who thinks Romney will lose to OBama. Remember this quote from Romney..”If truth is the standard, we will win”. Romney is telling us that he speaks the truth and Obama does not. Obama misleads and tells the same lie over and over until people believe it. There is no one better than Romney to unravel the wall of falsehoods that Obama hides behind. Obama can’t run on his record so he rely on deceptions. However, if he runs against Romney, that strategy won’t work. Romney 2012!!
The Hill‘s Cameron Joseph wrote this yesterday:
Of course Santo is citing a same day poll from Rasmussen which has him leading by 4, but with a 4 pt MOE. In other words, practically being tied by Mitt. Either way, not something for Ricky to boast about.
When Santorum looses his home state of Pennsylvania to Romney, perhaps THEN he will put his personal ego and ambitions aside, quit bashing Romney, accept the people’s will and suspend his campaign. That would be the honorable act. However, being “drunk” with power and ego satisfaction from his admirers is hard for him to give up…. but necessary. Mitt Romney is a FAR better, more prepared, honest, conservative, intelligent candidate than Rick Santorum is! Time to go home, Rick!
@Ann Chadwick
I really hope Santorum wins Pa. I do not think Romney is a conservative candidate and he is not honest and he is sure not prepared to be the president. I would not or will not vote for Romney even though I have been a republican for more then half my life. Romney is so unlikeable that he gives me the creeps when he talks. I am so sad that we might have a president that I do not like again, I never listen to Obama speak and when Obama comes on tv I turn the channel off and it upsets me that if Romney would win I would do the same thing again for four more years. I do not believe that Romney will win the election if he wins the nomination for president because I have seen a lot more people that have come to dislike the man as I do. The republican ticket has really reached to the bottom of the barrel when it chose Romney to be on the ticket. I really thought that people would come to their senses and nominate a man who has the ideas and the wisdom to become the president of the USA and that is Newt Gingrich but somehow the republican party has put a man with no value and a really unlikable man to run against another unlikable man. I would rather not vote then to vote for a man who is so out of touch with everything. He has really divided this country. Just like Obama has divided this country. I will in the presidential election write in Newt Gingrich’s name and I know many will write in Ron Paul’s name. Ron Paul is a nut and should have gotten out a long time ago but there are many many people who say they will write his name in this election. Santorum is a great man and has just as much right to continue his bid as Romney does so it is very unfair of you to judge him just because you want Romney. He will not ruin his chances at anything if he stays in the race and I think it is honorable of him to do so when there are a lot of people who hate Romney. You say when Rick Santorum loses his state do you have a crystal ball? You never know what will happen when it comes to my state Pa. If by chance Newt drops out I will vote for Santorum. He and Newt Gingrich are so much more intelligent and more prepared, honest and conservative then Romney is all rolled into one. Romney is and will be a loser in my book until the end. We are doomed to have four more years of Obama with Romney as the nominee and that is ashame.
I agree with Ann Chadwick.