What’s at Stake Tuesday, Long and Short Term

The Romance of Delegate Math

If you’re like me you find yourself looking at polling data and calculating delegate counts in your head. If Mitt takes so many delegates in DC, Maryland and Wisconsin, that puts him at a new total of X, extending his lead over Santorum by Y, and making Rick need Z percent of the future delegates to win…. Okay, maybe you’re not like me.

It may sound boring to the uninitiated, but it’s the math behind propelling the most qualified candidate in the race to his party’s nomination, step one in replacing Barack Obama.

What’s at Stake Tuesday: Long View

What Obamacare teaches us. In case you don’t think replacing Barack Obama is a big deal, reflect back on the biggest political story of this week. Okay, not the open mic incident. I’m referring to our hearing our president’s Solicitor General argue to the Supreme Court why Obamacare’s Federal mandate is constitutional. The traditionally conservative justices asked for a rationale that could possibly limit Congress’ power under the commerce clause should they accept his argument. Meanwhile, the traditionally liberal justices tried their best to supply that rationale. Based on the impressions of those reporting, the decision appears headed for a familiar 5-4 vote against the law, with the four traditional conservatives on one side, the four traditional liberals on the other, and middle-of-the-road Justice Kennedy likely voting with the conservatives. But time will tell.

Shape of the Court to come. As someone concerned about finding real limits to Congress’ power (history proving we need limits to preserve our freedom), and knowing the general police power was intended to be reserved to the states (making the difference between Federal Obamacare and state Romneycare night and day), I thank my lucky stars we had presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush to appoint the four conservative justices currently on the court. The liberal justices? Two from Clinton, two from Obama. By way of preview, the next president may have a chance to replace not only the lead conservative on the court in Scalia (currently 76 years old) and a staunch liberal on the court in Ginsburg (79), but iconic swing justice Kennedy, who has made the difference in many 5-4 decisions (currently 75 years old). In other words, who the president is matters, a lot, not just in signing and vetoing laws, but in appointing justices to the court who can protect the Constitution for a generation to come (a combined half-century now for Scalia and Kennedy).

MORE REGARDING THE SUPREME COURT AND AN ESTIMATE OF DELEGATES AWARDED TUESDAY BELOW! (more…)

Ryan Intros Romney’s ‘Restoring America’ Speech: Govt Based Society or Opportunity Society?

After Congressman Paul Ryan’s strong endorsement of Mitt Romney today, we saw the powerful duo later join up to take to the stage at Lawrence University in Appleton, Wisconsin. Before Romney delivered an inspiring “Restoring America” speech, Congressman Ryan introduced him.

Speaking on America’s absolute need for a true leader in the White House, Ryan said we must have a leader who has courage, conservative principles, and conviction… who has the integrity and tenacity to get America back on track. “In my humble opinion as a guy from Janesville, we need Mitt Romney to be the next president of the United States of America,” he enthusiastically offered. “I’m excited, I’m encouraged, I’m enthused.

Ryan ended by asking his fellow Wisconsinites to join him in supporting Romney.

Romney’s presidential-sounding speech had an unmistakable general election tone. He spoke on the troubled Obama legacy and introduced a new theme: Obama’s Government-Centered Society versus rebuilding the foundation of our Opportunity Society.

VIDEO of his entire speech may be viewed here.





Excerpts from Romney’s speech (For full text, click here.):

In 222 days, something pretty extraordinary is going to happen in the country. We’ll have an election. Across this country, millions and millions of Americans will be able to do something that is really quite amazing: They will choose not only a President, but an entire House of Representatives and a third of the US Senate.

The entire world will be watching us. And by around midnight on November 6th, maybe a little earlier or a little later, we’ll know the results of millions of Americans exercising their right to vote and in doing so, making a choice so profound that it is very difficult for any of us to grasp.

But I believe Americans face a fundamental choice in this election, a decision that is much more important than the candidates or the political parties. We should understand that we are selecting not just who should guide us but a choice between two distinct paths and destinies for our nation.

In the days and months ahead, we should ask ourselves some very fundamental questions about who we are as a nation and who we are becoming. What does it mean to be an American in 2012? What will it mean in 2016 and beyond? Are we keeping faith with the great legacy – and trust – that has been handed to us by previous generations? And what America will we leave the next generation?

Our yearly budget deficits are soaring and our national debt now stands at an all-time high. Barack Obama presided over the first trillion-dollar deficit in American history. And he has repeated this dreadful distinction for each year he has been in office.

For the first time since World War II, our national debt is greater than the size of our entire economy. Each American’s share of the national debt stands at $50,000.

. . . As much as we would like to, we can’t undo what has happened these past years. The families who have lost their homes, the factories that have closed, the students who had to drop out of college and those who never could make it in the door, all those missed chances and lost opportunities can’t be regained.

And that’s why it is important to understand one astonishing fact about this election: President Obama thinks he’s doing a good job. No, I’m not kidding. He actually thinks he’s doing a great job. An historically great job. According to the President, only Lincoln, FDR and Lyndon Johnson have accomplished more. And no, he didn’t say that on Saturday Night Live.

This is a President who was elected not on the strength of a compelling record but a compelling personality and story. There was much about the campaign of Barack Obama that appealed to many Americans. And though the reality has failed the hope and change he promised, he remains surrounded by true believers who attack anyone who challenges their power. And, as we see each day, they will fight even more fiercely to hold on to that power.

All of this is to be expected. That power loves power and never lets go easily is hardly new.

The choice before us could not be more profound. Barack Obama and I have fundamentally different visions for America.

He has spent the last four years laying the foundation for a new Government-Centered Society. I will spend the next four years rebuilding the foundation of our Opportunity Society, led by free people and free enterprises.

Continue reading here.

Romney’s scope of understanding of what truly is at stake for the land of the free and the home of the brave was plainly evident today. It was an inspiring, magnificent speech. My heart swelled with pride and hope knowing he has the courage, conviction, and resolve to take the battle directly to Obama and win.

Mitt Romney will restore America’s greatness.

► Jayde Wyatt

Breaking: Congressman Paul Ryan Says It’s Romney! (VIDEO)

After spending time on the House floor yesterday overseeing the passing of his budget plan, Congressman Paul Ryan (Republican Chairman of the House Budget Committee) appeared this morning on FOX & Friends to. . .

ENDORSE MITT ROMNEY!

I am convinced that Mitt Romney has the skills, the tenacity, the courage and the principles to get America back on track.”

Coming on the heels of endorsements from President Bush 41 and Senator Marco Rubio, the backing from Ryan essentially signals a primary wind-up.

It’s over.

Ryan said he’d put in an earlier call to Rick Santorum to alert him of his pending endorsement of Romney. He also stressed the fact that America is at a crossroads and the necessity of coalescing now behind Governor Romney.

Ryan’s endorsement comes just day’s ahead of Wisconsin’s primary (his home state).

Stay tuned for more details!

UPDATE: When asked who he will support, here is what Paul Ryan said:

Mitt Romney. Here is the point, we vote on Tuesday here in Wisconsin. Lots of my friends, family and supporters are asking me, who do we think we should vote for? I have two criteria I’m using to make my decision to vote in our primary on Tuesday. Who is the best person to be President – who will make the best President? And who has the best chance of defeating Barak Obama? In my opinion, Mitt Romney is clearly that person.

Here’s the other point. I spent a good deal of time with Mitt Romney and his staff recently going through our country’s fiscal situation, talking about what it will take to get the country back on track. I am convinced Mitt Romney has the skills, the tenacity, the principles, the courage and the integrity to do what it takes to get America back on track. So I believe he’s the right person for the job. And I think this primary has been productive, I think it’s been constructive up until now. I think it’s made the candidates better. But I think we’re entering a phase where it could become counterproductive if it drags on much longer. That’s why I think we as conservatives need to coalesce around Mitt Romney and focus on the big task at hand, which is defeating Barak Obama in the fall.

UPDATE 2 - Governor Romney tweeted:

UPDATE 3 - From The Washington Post

Wisconsin is holding its primary on Tuesday, but Ryan’s endorsement will resonates far outside his home state. Ryan, a proponent of deep cuts in entitlements and agency funding, has become the leading voice on debt and spending issues in the Republican party.

His blessing of Romney comes on the heels of endorsements from former Florida governor Jeb Bush, former president George H.W. Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)–clear signs that Republican leaders young and old, from both the tea party and establishment wings, are ready for this primary season to be over.

UPDATE 4 - Romney’s statement:

“When the history of this chapter of American politics is written, I venture to say that Paul Ryan will occupy a significant place in the story of how our country rescued itself from financial disaster. Congressman Ryan has not only thought deeply and creatively about how to bring our extraordinary budget shortfall under control, but he has demonstrated the leadership to bring Americans together to put his bold reforms into practice. In the battle for fiscal responsibility, we have been facing gale force headwinds from the Democratic Party and from the Obama White House. But with Paul Ryan’s support, I have every confidence that we can overcome those headwinds, recapture the White House for the American people, and begin the hard work of setting our country on a better course. I am profoundly grateful to Congressman Ryan for his endorsement today. I am even more grateful for all the hard work he has done to help turn around our country and restore it to greatness.

(emphasis added)



► Jayde Wyatt

Prediction: Senator Santorum to Quit Presidential Race in April

This week, a number of news outlets have reported a conspicuous drop in Santorum’s typical strident rhetoric against Gov. Romney. I believe this is a less than subtle way to position himself to exit the race. Yesterday’s New York Times reported,

Rick Santorum has eased up on using phrases like “worst Republican in the country” when tearing into Mitt Romney. And he is no longer saying that a vote for Mr. Romney would be basically the same thing as a vote for President Obama.

Meet subdued Santorum.

After several highly publicized remarks that left many in his party questioning whether he had crossed the line in attacking a fellow Republican, Mr. Santorum has struggled to find the balance between being a tenacious underdog and leaving himself open to criticism that he is just an embittered also-ran.
[...]
The sudden restraint has surprised some of his supporters.

[emphasis added]

Senator Santorum is not stupid; think about it. Just a few days ago, he rips Gov. Romney publicly and that very same day publicly states he would consider a veep position under a President Romney. Yes, I did a double-take as well! But why let up now? The NYT article even quotes his supporters saying that his “passionate” language is one of the things most appealing.

Here is the reason I believe. There are eight primaries between now and April 24th. Romney is expected to win six of them and probably by a wide margin. The other two are Wisconsin (4/3) and Pennsylvania (4/24). As of 7:30 p.m. PST tonight, Intrade shows the probability of a Santorum win in Wisconsin at 11.8% and a win in his home state of Pennsylvania at 31.1%. The other six states are below 5% except Connecticut (6.8%). Above, I said Santorum is not stupid. He is looking at these same probabilities and he is thinking now.

Here is where the dew of reality is descending upon Santorum’s thoughts.

Rick Santorum’s private thoughts (my conjecture):

“Wow! I could lose this thing fast in the next few weeks. I have to win. I put too much into this thing with my wife, my children, and Bella — And dang it, I worked harder than the other guys and I deserve to win! I have to win Wisconsin to build the momentum into my home state but Mitt is so much more prepared and his machine is killing me in Wisconsin. I have to win Pennsylvania! If I lose Wisconsin, that will not be good going into Pennsylvania! Mitt is picking up steam in Pennsylvania this week. I have to win Pennsylvania! Having to answer to that dang 18 point loss in my senate race in 2006 has been shear [pain] in this race — embarrassing! There is no way I will lose Pennsylvania — No way!”

Do you see where Rick’s mind is right now? Can he win Wisconsin next Tuesday? Absolutely he can if we let up at all. I strongly believe Governor Romney has Santorum in a strangle hold with Wisconsin, especially if he trounces him Tuesday. Romney will likely smash Santorum in DC and Maryland and if he has a really strong win in Wisconsin, Santorum will be all but dead going into Pennsylvania.

Bloomberg Businessweek reported in February:

Yet six years ago, as he sought a third Senate term in Pennsylvania, Santorum proved he can also lose in such a politically competitive state — and lose big.

Santorum’s last race — an 18-percentage-point defeat in 2006 bid — raises questions about his appeal to independent voters who could help decide the national election in November, as well as to Republicans who will determine who gets the party’s nomination.

Santorum’s loss was “the largest defeat by a Republican United States senator seeking election or re-election in modern Pennsylvania history,” said G. Terry Madonna, a polling expert and public affairs professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.

So think about it. If I am Santorum and I know I now have two choices (after losing Wisconsin): 1) I could do what I have said I would do and stay in the race all the way to the convention (remember: “principle”) and lose Pennsylvania and be thoroughly embarrassed again, or 2) I could exit stage right and declare my loyal support to Romney and hear everybody cheer me to glory.

How does Santorum avoid losing Pennsylvania again?

If Santorum were to lose Wisconsin to Romney, which do you think he will choose? 1? or 2? I predict Wisconsin will be another close race but that Romney will win it. If this happens, Santorum will “evaluate” the race at that point and decide to exit entirely. What seems hard to predict is when he would make that announcement. I think it would likely be the weekend following the Wisconsin primary and not a lot later so that it does not appear to be correlated with a fear of embarrassment — which a loss in his home state certainly would be.

The most compelling argument for Santorum to attempt a graceful exit from the race, upon losing Wisconsin, is this (he is not stupid — Santorum is the epitome of the political animal): He wants a future in politics — and presidential politics at that. If he were to lose Pennsylvania bad (very good possibility), he would be almost for sure pushed out of the race with people laughing, and his political reputation would be all but destroyed.

If he were then to attempt to run for POTUS in future years, it will always be remembered of him that he could not win reelection (2006) to the Senate in his home state (historically huge loss) and that he bad-mouthed Romney for months before being trounced again in his home state of Pennsylvania (2012). And why? Because of a) a huge ego, b) stubbornness, and c) strident social positions. He would be washed up and would forever be overlooked as a serious national candidate. He will not allow that to happen — not when he can control the outcome now.

As we say in business, the risk-reward consideration is making this untenable for Mr. Santorum. I think the probability that Santorum will compete in Pennsylvania is less than five percent.

He will not allow himself to be embarrassed. Not by Governor Romney!

GO MITT! Let’s all work as hard as we can to bring a HUGE win to Mitt in Wisconsin — We do not want the Wisconsin results to even be close! We can finish off Santorum next Tuesday.

“As the world’s finest democracy, we do not do guillotines. But there are other less bloody rituals of humiliation, designed to reassure the populace that order is restored, the Republic cleansed.” ~ William Greider

Exit Question: What is a One Term Obama Presidency Worth to You?

Another Big One: Fmr President George H.W. Bush Formally Endorses Romney

Gov Mitt Romney met with former President George H W Bush and former First Lady Barbara Bush last December. (Photo AP/Pat Sullivan)


Today, Governor Mitt Romney announced the support of former President George H.W. Bush:

“As a naval aviator, congressman, ambassador, CIA director, vice president, and president, George H.W. Bush served our country with great devotion and high distinction over many decades. When we talk about the Greatest Generation, we are talking about those like President Bush, who, after Pearl Harbor, enlisted in our armed forces and served with unflinching courage during World War II. This is a man who knows from the ground up – and from the top down – the meaning of responsibility in exercising leadership in our democracy. I am proud to have him as my mentor. Ann and I are grateful to be able to call Barbara and George our good friends. There is no greater honor than earning President Bush’s endorsement and I am grateful for all George and Barbara have done.”

(emphasis added)

FOX News aired the endorsement LIVE this afternoon. This important news, combined with yesterday’s backing from Senator Marco Rubio and the recent endorsement from Jeb Bush, underscores the flood of sentiment that it’s time to end the primary season, rally around Romney, and get ready to battle Obama.

When video becomes available, we’ll post it. Check back for updates!

UPDATE - Maggie Haberman – Politico

George H.W. Bush, re-endorsing Mitt Romney today in Texas and making it formal for the first time – complete with live Fox News footage – was egged on by his wife Barbara:

“Aren’t you going to sing a song for us? Know when to fold ‘em?” she asked her husband, per POLITICO’s Reid Epstein.

“Yeah,” he said. “I do think it’s time for the party to get behind Gov. Romney. And she was reminding me Kenny Rogers sang, ‘It’s time when to hold ‘em and time when to fold ‘em.’ Well I think it’s time for people to all get behind this good man…We’re so convinced and we’ve known Mitt for a very long time, that he’s the man to do this job and get on and win the presidency, and that’s about it. And with no further ado, here’s the man.”

UPDATE 2 - Apparently President Bush 41 loves socks with pizazz. At their meeting today in Texas, he presented Romney with a pair (love it!):

Photo taken by D G Jackson (Mitt Body Man) March 29, 2012 (Click on photo to enlarge.)

UPDATE 3 – Video of the endorsement (FOX didn’t cut away soon enough to get the first part of the endorsement. I’ll try to locate video of the entire event.):


UPDATE 4 – Here’s CNN’s video (Pres Bush speaks; Barbara Bush sings Ann Romney’s praises!):

UPDATE 5 – The Daily Caller is reporting a Paul Ryan endorsement of Mitt Romney is imminent. If true, this would be another breathtaking endorsement! Details here.



► Jayde Wyatt

BREAKING: Mitt Gets the Coveted Marco Rubio Endorsement

Marco Rubio endorsed Mitt

Drudge broke the news/rumor and twitter went all a-flitter: Rubio to endorse tonight! And so tonight on the Sean Hannity show Marco Rubio made his 2012 endorsement official:


Marco Rubio stands with Mitt Romney!

The go-ahead nod from Marco Rubio is perhaps the biggest endorsement in this race since Chris Christie. It is a rally call to all conservatives that this race, though not ended, is essentially over.

Said Rubio of Romney, “he offers a stark contrast to the President’s record.”

This news is breaking… more quotes, and perhaps video, will be forth coming.

~Nate G.

VIDEO UPDATE:

FOX News’ Sean Hannity: “Up to this point, you had not jumped into the primary race. Are you endorsing Mitt Romney then?”

Senator Marco Rubio: “Well, I am going to endorse Mitt Romney and the reason why is not only because he is going to be the Republican nominee but he offers at this point, such a stark contrast to the President’s record. Look at the President’s record. This is someone who has run the country, not very well over the last three years, that has no experience beyond that doing that, at the same time, as he has no experience with the private sector or the free enterprise system. In Mitt Romney, we have a candidate, an alternative, that in addition to being successful as a governor, running an important state in this country, has also been successful in the private sector and offers a very clear alternative to the direction this president is going to take our country. I think all the candidates in this race have a lot to be proud of. They have offered a lot to the debate. But I just can’t buy into this idea that by their own admission, they are saying the only way they can win this race is by having a floor fight in Tampa in August. I think that’s a recipe to deliver four more years to Barack Obama and our country – forget about the Republican Party – our country cannot afford that. We have got to come together behind who I think has earned this nomination and that’s Mitt Romney.”

Mitt Romney:

Marco Rubio is living proof that the American Dream is still very much alive. … From humble origins, he has risen to become one of the brightest lights in our political party. He has been a leading voice in the U.S. Senate and the country for the cause of restoring American greatness. He knows that the way forward is to end excessive regulations, shrink government, and get our economy growing. He understands that the way to strengthen our communities is to strengthen our families. He recognizes the dangers that will face America if we fail to maintain our military power. He understands how critical it is to bring new leadership to the White House. Senator Rubio’s endorsement is a major milestone in my effort to make Barack Obama a one-term president. Ann joins me in thanking him for the confidence he is placing in my leadership and for the great honor he has done me today.”

Mitt was endorsed by Ivanka Trump as well:


Obama to Russia’s Medvedev/Putin: ♫ Let’s Stay Together ♪♫

Artist/cartoonist Sal Velluto doesn’t miss a beat.

♫ Here’s America’s Crooner-in-Chief… ♪♫

*Let’s Stay Together

I’m, I’m so in love with you
Whatever you want to do
It’s alright with me
‘Cause you make me feel so brand new
I want to spend my life with you
Things just ain’t the same, baby, since we’ve been together
Ooh, loving you forever
Is what I need
Let me be the one you come running to
I’ll never be untrue

Ooh, baby, let’s, let’s stay together
Loving you whether, whether times are good or bad, happy or sad
Whether times are good or bad, happy or sad

Why somebody, why people break up?
Oh, turn around and make up
I just can’t see
You’d never do that to me (Would you, baby?)
So to be around you is all I see
Is what I want us to
Let’s, we ought to stay together
Loving you whether, whether times are good or bad, happy or sad

Let’s, let’s stay together
Loving you whether, whether times are good or bad, happy or sad…




*Written by Al Green, Al Jackson Jr., Willie Mitchell

► Jayde Wyatt

ICYMI: Video of Mitt’s Appearance on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno

Romney and Leno discuss Rick Santorum, VP picks, delegate counts, “distracting issues”, tax code, Health Care, Obama’s open mic gaffe, Russia, Afghanistan and federal spending. (Just watched it myself. Way to go Governor – extremely well done!)

Part 1 of 3:

Parts 2 and 3 below the fold…
(more…)

U.S. Marine Meets Governor & Mrs. Romney at California Fundraiser Luncheon

Governor Romney held a fundraising event yesterday in the Orange County community of Shady Canyon at the home of a supporter. It was a beautiful, sunny day — perfect for an outdoor event [see several photographs below the fold].

Photo by Amanda Earnest

I asked three people attending the luncheon to provide highlights of the event, including the comments of Governor and Mrs. Romney. This was the first time that each of them had met Governor Romney. Following are their observations and several photos of the luncheon. They include Marine veteran Marlon Bateman, Shady Canyon resident Bill Joiner, and Amanda Earnest who helped raise funds for the event. I appreciate each of their contributions for this post.

REQUEST: There were hundreds of people in attendance at this luncheon. If you were one of them yesterday, please leave a brief comment to this post and add your observations to those of Marlon, Bill, and Amanda. Why are you supporting Governor Romney’s candidacy for President?

I am proud to include Marlon Bateman in this post. It was he that inspired me to write this after discovering it would be his first time to meet Gov. Romney. I believe I speak for my family, friends, and all Americans in publicly thanking him for his years of honorable service in protecting our nation; and to his wife Emily for her service in support. Thank you so much — we will always be grateful.

CPL Bateman in Afghanistan w/ Afghan National in Back

Marlon Bateman grew up in California, and joined the Marine Corp. after graduating high school. He served from October 2007 to September 2011 (at rank of CPL) with the 2nd Battalion, 1st Marines Infantry. Shortly after joining the Marines, Marlon married Emily and was later deployed to Iraq and then again to Afghanistan in 2010. He is active in his church, has a passion for politics, is a full-time college student, and will be assisting Governor Romney’s campaign any way he can in 2012 (David Parker of MRC called Gov. Romney to inform him that Marlon would be there to meet him).

On Tuesday my wife and I had a chance to meet Governor and Mrs. Romney. A friend who knew that I had served four years in the Marines and was now in college and working (as well as helping to campaign for Governor Romney) invited me to an event that supporters of the governor were holding in Irvine, California. So my wife and I came and were treated to a few minutes conversation with the governor and his wife. (more…)

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