The first post-Iowa national polls are out and Mitt’s path to the nomination is becoming clearer every day! Romney leads both the Rasmussen and the Gallup polls that were published yesterday, each by 8 points – though Gallup was +8 vs. Gingrich, and Rasmussen was +8 vs. Santorum. Here are the figures:
Rasmussen 1/4/12:
29% Romney
21% Santorum
16% Gingrich
12% Paul
4% Perry
4% Huntsman
Gallup Tracking 12/28/11 – 1/4/12:
27% Romney
19% Gingrich
13% Paul
11% Santorum
6% Perry
2% Huntsman
I’m inclined to think the Rasmussen numbers are more accurate since the entire poll was taken after the Iowa caucuses, while the Gallup poll is a rolling average of their last 5 daily polls. Their figures will be accurate soon enough.
So the Gingrich slide and Santorum surge are official. Rick Santorum finally gets his turn on the GOP pendulum – how about that? As of now, each candidates except Romney and Huntsman have enjoyed a surge. Examining the graph below you get the feeling the GOP has been taken on quite the roller coaster ride, except for Romney’s campaign whose is more of a high-wire act. (Move slowly and steadily toward your goal, and don’t stray off course… and you’ll stay on top.)
| 26.8 | Romney +4.2 | 22.6 | Gingrich | 12.8 | Paul | 8.6 | Santorum |
| 5.8 | Perry | 2.2 | Huntsman | 6.3 | Bachmann | – | Cain |
As Gingrich and Santorum begin to trade places the new question is how low/high (respectively) will they go? Will Santorum muster enough support to become competitive in South Carolina? With Romney as the clear winner-to-be in New Hampshire, South Carolina truly is the last stand for most of the other candidates, and it may be Romney’s most difficult task yet. Whomever wins in SC will have great momentum going into Florida. If that happens to be Mitt we could officially dub his momentum as “unstoppable”.
~Nate G.
UPDATE: The following tweet is even better news than the 8-point national lead:
Mitt up about 10 pts the first night of our South Carolina poll…Gingrich and Santorum close for 2nd.
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 6, 2012
Mitt up by ten in South Carolina? Nothing could be better. We’ll find out when PPP publishes their poll on Saturday.
UPDATE2: From FOX News we get an interesting video of Scott Rasmussen discussing the National Poll:
Strongest Opponent to Obama: Romney 44, Gingrich 17, Santorum 15, Paul 6, Huntsman 3, Perry 2.
Weakest Opponent to Obama: Paul 36, Huntsman 19, Gingrich 12, Perry 11, Romney 5, Santorum 5.
Who do you think will win: Romney 65, Santorum 11, Gingrich 6, Ron Paul 3.
Exit question: Numbers are looking dismal for Rick Perry. Does he even have chance anymore?
Nate owns and manages a small souvenir manufacturing business. He and his wife of 12 years have 2 children. Nate has been blogging for Mitt Romney since late 2006 and is co-founder and editor of MittRomneyCentral.com.
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Those polls have to be incorrect because they show Mitt with more than 25% support and we know he can’t rise above that.
Robb is so right! Mitt can’t get over 25%! Someone has been manipulating the polls!!
(YES, MITT!!!!!!! We love America and we love you and Ann!)
Looks like our man is moving in the right direction. No doubt about it, winning creates enthusiasm.