Gingrich: From Headlines to a Footnote – Breaking News: Newt Announces he Will not Win Iowa + IOWA ANALYSIS

[To view my guesstimate as to tomorrow’s finish, click on the blue link below labeled CLICK HERE TO CONTINUE READING…]

Somebody in his campaign today must have mustered the courage to finally take Mr. Gingrich aside and tell him about this little website called Intrade (I believe that person still works for the campaign). Intrade has him winning Iowa at a probability of 0.9% today (margin of error?). And to be the Republican nominee? His “fall from grace” from almost 39.0% on December 13th to 5.4% today. So, Mr. Gingrich felt compelled today to inform the world he will not win Iowa. Thank you so much Newt for letting us know ahead of time! Good to know from you directly.

I am right!

Was it Newt’s Howard Dean moment here? Or was it all the news from around America revealing his carry-ons as we reported here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, or here? I think it comes down to his character and integrity issues. Pure and simple. And his inability and unwillingness to answer even the basics of his past and decisions. Stunning on his part.

I have to opine on the nonsense I hear from the MSM and others. First, GMR is not – I repeat – IS NOT capped at 25%! Enough of this. Any simpleton can see 25% is a floor! See how the perspective changes? But more importantly, this is the truth; not what they are reporting. Six other candidates make up 75% at an average of 12.5% each. Watch what happens to GMR’s floor when each candidate drops.

Second, FOX seems to be rooting for anybody but GMR. I think that is true, but so are all the other MSM outlets. Why is that?

Think about it. Having seven Republican candidates provides far more material (content) to discuss on TV. FOX wants Santorum to survive another day to elongate the cycle. Once it is down to any one candidate, it gets a lot harder for the MSM to find interesting angles, especially when most of these want Obama again. They will have to work harder.

Third, this is just my observation, but I don’t think Gingrich is brilliant like the MSM would have us all believe. Yes, he has a lot of information and facts memorized; that is not evidence of intelligence; he is a professor. I think he is on par with Rick Perry (average), though he has a lot more facts and information in his head than Perry; big deal. So did my business school professors who had never run a business. It is astounding to me that the MSM makes such a big deal about all the wacky ideas Gingrich allows to evaporate from his mouth. If Gingrich were that intelligent, he would have studied all past successful presidential campaigns to discover how to get on the ballot in Virginia, how to establish a national organization, how to attract the top talent of America, etc. (I could list another 25). Okay, I got it out – I feel better now. Much better!

If we can believe the historic, predictive quality of Intrade (and I believe we can), following is how Iowa looks to finish out tomorrow. By the way, these add up to 99.4%. effectively 100% (the numbers ONLY show the probable order and do not represent likely voting results):

1) 48.4% Romney
2) 28.2% Paul
3) 21.5% Santorum
4) 00.9% Gingrich
5) 00.2% Backmann
6) 00.2% Perry
7) Huntsman (no show)

NOTE: As I go to hit the button to put this post up, Romney’s number keep rising and is at 51.7%, Paul’s is at 28.5%, and Santorum is at 21.2% (1/2/12 @ 10:30pm, PST).

Analysis:

I wish to preface this. The following is just my guesstimate; just hunches based on what I have observed to this point. By the way, I do not wish to be harsh or mean in this rhetoric; not at all. I wrote this based on what I think most Americans perceive of each of the candidates.

Paul will never give up;
In my opinion, Santorum made a big mistake by stating he would campaign hard in New Hampshire. I think this was a mistake because his strong Iowa finish could belly flop out of New Hampshire if it is perceived he peaked in Iowa as Huckabee did in 2008;
Gingrich’s narcissism cannot allow him to cede the nomination to Romney since he declared victory already on December 1st; he must push on to satisfy his insatiable ego and so he can continue to pontificate to all Americans on TV. He will continue to row along in his tiny rubber boat with one oar in the water, whining hard all the way! Once he drops, he loses the audience he has longed for since they kicked him out of the House; and that audience will be lost to him forevermore; he knows that. But he will be able to publish more books; good for him. He will be a footnote to the 2012 elections in history;
Backmann continues to give interviews in order to convince herself that she will experience a miracle and win the Iowa caucuses; she is starting to believe her own advertising; If she bests Perry, she will stay in to South Carolina; If she lands 6th, I think she will bail before New Hampshire and endorse Romney (not Santorum), since she does not want to be the last Tea Partier to endorse Romney;
Perry has lots of money and an ego almost the size of Texas. He has too many backers to let them down in the first state; He will trudge along to South Carolina, even if he lands 6th! If so, that would be big news!
Huntsman is a funny guy; he will soon join Gingrich as a footnote. He may join Huckabee’s band on FOX News.

The long and short of it?

The more that attend the South Carolina barbeques, the better for Romney in my opinion. Romney will continue to rack up the endorsements to the detriment to all the others and they will all fight for the crumbs that fall from the Romney table. I say, go for it.

Governor Mitt Romney has his sights on 1) President Obama’s destruction of America and on 2) the prize: 1,150 delegates.

“Our reliance is in the love of liberty which God has planted in our bosoms. Our defense is in the preservation of the spirit which prizes liberty as the heritage of all men, in all lands, everywhere.” — Abraham Lincoln — September 11, 1858 Speech at Edwardsville, Illinois