Debates have consequences. When you don’t prepare you don’t do well, and people will notice.
On August 15th Rick Perry announced his candidacy for the office of President and very quickly surged to front-runner status, a position that Mitt had held for some time. In the last few weeks we have witnessed three GOP debates, and we’ve received news that two major would-be candidates, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin, have declined to enter the race. These events have made a huge impact on the state of the race, which is now entirely different from just 6 weeks ago.
Real Clear Politics has a running average of national polls for the GOP 2012 that includes just the most recent numbers from a variety of polling organizations. The graph below (from RCP) shows the polling trends for each of the candidates. (Romney=Purple Perry=Blue Cain=Red)
Another site I like to follow is Intrade.com, which is online trading exchange website. Real people speculate on the outcome of certain events and basically buy and sell stocks (wager) based on how likely they feel a certain outcome is. It is interesting to follow since these are people who have money on the line and are watching the news and momentum trends with great interest. Below is a graph for the top 3 polling candidates right now and the closing values of their stock going back to the beginning of September. I included in the graph some dotted lines to signify when the debates took place, and when Christie officially declined to enter the race.
My take: Team Romney is soaring high right now and it is evident by the high number of endorsements and fundraisers that are jumping aboard. But Team Romney shouldn’t become complacent (I don’t think they will) because as Perry’s campaign is taking a nose-dive Herman Cain is there picking up much of the slack. It is true Cain is rising very fast in the polls, but whether that rise mounts to a strong challenge against Romney… we will have to wait and see. Much will be decided in the coming debates.