Romney Wins Ames 2007
However, Mitt will be in New Hampshire on Saturday during the Ames straw poll which is consistent with his pledge not to compete in any straw polls. He is focusing all of his resources on highlighting the failures of President Obama and not on fighting fellow republicans. Knowing that no resources have been devoted to the Ames straw poll and that the Ames straw poll is widely recognized as being a fundraiser for the Iowa GOP (Mitt’s F&SA PAC and campaigns have donated generously to the Iowa GOP the last several years) in which the most amount of money/organization almost always wins the day, here are my predictions for the Ames straw poll:
1. Bachmann (My guess is undecideds will break her way to try to make sure Ron Paul doesn’t win)
2. Paul (his supporters have literally been organizing for this for years and a lot of resources are being devoted)
3. Pawlenty (Easily spending the most amount of money, but the enthusiasm gap should put Paul and Bachmann over the top)
4. Santorum (nobody has done more events in Iowa this year)
5. Cain (Usually does spectacular in straw polls he speaks at, but lack of resources and manpower will hurt him)
6. Perry (will be penalized for upstaging the poll by his announcement of intentions in South Carolina during the Ames poll)
7. Romney (7th is perhaps a bit optimistic all things considered, but his debate performance and 2008 campaign should help a bit. Not paying for any supporters tickets will hurt a ton.)
8. Gingrich (will this be the final nail in his campaign coffin?)
9. Palin (write in ballots only)
10. Johnson (maybe the end of his campaign as well)
11. McCotter (not in the debate)
12. Roemer
13. Huntsman (has completely written off Iowa and has virtually no base in Iowa)
14. others
Who will win Thursday’s debate (based on media and social network buzz)?
1. Romney
2. Bachmann
3. Pawlenty
4. Paul
What will Rick Perry Announce on Saturday?
That he’s running for President
Who will drop out within a week or two of the Ames straw poll?
Herman Cain and Gary Johnson
Out of everyone who hasn’t announced yet, who actually will?
Rick Perry only
Make your predictions about this or anything else you can think of in the comment section. Hopefully we get enough comments to put together results before the end of the debate tomorrow. Stop by during the debate (8 PM EST- 10) for a live chat tomorrow.
UPDATE Sarah Palin is reportedly bringing her bus tour to Ames in time for the straw poll. How much will that affect her straw poll results?
Watch an impressive new video showcasing how President Obama has failed America below the fold
I agree with the order of your selection for the winners of the Iowa Straw Poll except I would flip Pawlenty and Bachmann around. Bachmann has a couple times more support in Iowa than Pawlenty does and that will easily make up for the their difference in spending.
Iowa depends on political tourism, and the straw poll is a big part of that revenue stream. When the straw poll produces a goofy result, the prestige of the poll is hurt, and folks are less likely to pay attention to the results in the next cycle. Mr. Romney put a huge amount of money into the poll in 2007. He won the straw poll but still lost in the caucuses. As a result, he’s not putting that money into the straw poll this year. The goofiest result that could hurt the prestige of the straw poll would be a Ron Paul victory. Having a legitimate candidate with legitimate qualifications and a chance at the nomination buy a win only helps the poll’s prestige. Having someone who is never going to win the caucuses or the nomination win only makes the poll look silly. Iowa Republicans are going to want to produce results that draw positive news coverage and expand the poll’s prestige. They will try to ensure that Ron Paul does not win. If they can go a step further, they will want the results to be newsworthy.
No campaign is spending as much money this year as they have spent in years past. Iowans probably aren’t spending as much money this year as they have in years past. I expect the turnout to be lower. I don’t expect anyone to come close to the 4500 votes that Mitt Romney received in 2007.
With these ideas in mind, here are my predictions:
1. Tim Pawlenty ~3200 votes – A win by Tim Pawlenty would be the biggest news to come out of the straw poll (unless Herman Cain or Rick Santorum were capable of winning). He has a great organization and has spent the resources. Iowans appreciate that effort and will reward him with straw poll votes. This result will look good for Iowa and make positive news.
2. Michele Bachmann ~3200 votes – Because Michele Bachmann would seem to be the favorite going into the poll, many people who are afraid of Ron Paul winning will vote for her. I’ve heard that her organization isn’t great, and if she had a good organization for the poll, I’d put her well ahead of Tim Pawlenty.
3. Mitt Romney ~1800 votes – Mitt Romney had 4500 votes in 2007. Many of those votes came because he organized well and brought people to the straw poll. Some of those 4500 won’t bother to come this time. Others will vote for other candidates who put an effort into getting their votes this time. However, many Mitt Romney supporters are still angry about how things turned out in 2008 and have been waiting four years to vote for him again. They will make whatever effort is needed to get back to the straw poll and vote for Mr. Romney.
4. Ron Paul ~1800 votes – Originally, I predicted that Ron Paul could do no better than 1500 votes. In 2007, he received 1300 votes. He pretends that he’s the Tea Party godfather and will derive a huge amount of support from Tea Party folks anxious to flex their muscle. The reality is that most Tea Party folks don’t believe that we will save the country by eliminating the Federal Reserve, surrendering in Afghanistan, and legalizing heroin. Most of the Tea Party folks are going to support Michele Bachmann in spite of her less effective organization or support Herman Cain.
5. Rick Santorum ~1300 votes – The Iowa straw poll voters are perfect for his message, and he’s put a huge effort into campaigning for this event. The voters will want to reward him, and he’ll show some strength.
6. Herman Cain ~1100 votes – His momentum seems to have died, but many people still like Herman Cain. They may make the effort to come to the straw poll just to support a different kind of candidate.
7. Newt Gingrich ~200 votes – He has a few diehard supporters who will always come to an event to vote for him.
8. Thaddeus McCotter ~100 votes – This guy is barely known in Iowa and really has nothing to offer.
9. Jon Huntsman ~40 votes – He has no base in Iowa and has made no effort.
Sarah Palin may get a few write-in votes, but most straw poll voters will want to reward those who have made an effort to campaign in Iowa. Rick Perry may get a few votes, but his timing his announcement to upstage the straw poll will not sit well with the people in Ames.
Tim Pawlenty will win Thursday’s debate. Expectations are low based on his previous two debate performances. He’ll be feeling confident about his standing in Iowa. He’ll be more energized and deliver everyone’s expectation of criticizing other candidates but will do so in a way that isn’t ugly. Mitt Romney will be a close second because he’ll stay above the fray. He’ll just keep being the guy who can get things going again.
I agree that Rick Perry will announce an exploratory committee.
Rick Santorum might drop out if he performs worse than what I’ve predicted. Iowa is made for his message. If something happens and he finishes worse than fifth, he might as well quit.
Rick Perry will eventually join the race. He’ll do poorly in the Iowa caucus in January because he upstaged this event with his announcement and didn’t participate in this big fundraiser for the state. He’ll do poorly in New Hampshire because he’s a horrible match for the state. He’ll do poorly in South Carolina because the state tends to vote for the candidate who has the best “my turn” claim, and Rick Perry has no “my turn” claim. Rick Perry will drop out after South Carolina.
Ron Paul is going to do very well and if he wins, that will make Mitt look very good for not wasting any time and effort on something this meaningless. CPAC this year taught a lot of people everything we need to know about straw polls in the age of ron paul people. CPAC was Mitt Romney’s show for sure. He had the best speech and the most support, but ron paul and his people win these polls at any cost. When votes can be bought, it’s a waste of money to compete with ron paul. When the real votes are cast, Mitt will win because real votes are what matter.
Dan your comment is astonishing given the recent discloser as to how much a certain presidential GOP candidate received from lobbyists.(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/10/mitt-romney-lobbyists_n_923323.html). Yeah, more than all the other GOP candidates combined. “Somebody” hasn’t been bought and paid for, the same somebody who’s claimed in the past to not work with lobbyists (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW7iOIh-W4k&feature=youtube_gdata_player). I’ll agree with you on one point about votes being bought. The question you have to ask yourself is if someone has received a massive amount of cash from lobbyists, who’s vote have they, the lobysists, bought? Business as usual in Washington folks. Can talk the talk but not walk it. Ron Paul 2012…
Both Perry and Palin are write in’s on the Ames straw ballots. I don’t think either will get traction, for many reasons, least of which neither are on the actual ballot. Out of sight, out of mind.
@Chris
What about the fact that Palin will be there and Perry won’t be?
Perry is in for the president but I wish he would stay out. I will not vote for him as he can’t beat obama. Mitt is the only one that can get the USA back on track and get jobs opened up so people can get back to work. Need to impeach the Nigerian as he was never legal from day one! Why should we pay him alot of money for a job he never did!! Get rid of him all the way. Frankie