Romney Dominating in New Hampshire: Poll Also Provides Evidence That RomneyCare Won’t Hurt Mitt Much

Suffolk University/WHDH New Hampshire 2012 GOP Nomination Survey 

(400 likely GOP primary voters were polled April 30 – May 2, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Full poll results)

  • Mitt Romney 35%
  • Rudy Giuliani 8%
  • Ron Paul 8%
  • Donald Trump 8%
  • Sarah Palin 7%
  • Mike Huckabee 6%
  • Tim Pawlenty 5%
  • Michele Bachmann & Newt Gingrich 3% each
  • Rick Santorum & Herman Cain 2% each
  • John Bolton, Mitch Daniels, & Gary Johnson 1% each
  • Jon Huntsman, Fred Karger, Roy Moore, & Buddy Roemer 0% each
  • Undecided 13%

A quick tally shows that more people voted for Romney than Palin, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Bachman, Santorum, Gingrich, Cain, Daniels, Bolton, Johnson, Huntsman, Roemer, Moore and Karger COMBINED!  That’s called poll domination!!!

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Mitt Romney 65% / 22% {+43%}
  • Tim Pawlenty 30% / 13% {+17%}
  • Mike Huckabee 41% / 31% {+10%}
  • Newt Gingrich 38% / 38% {0%}
  • Sarah Palin 42% / 46% {-4%}
  • Barack Obama 36% / 59% {-23%}
  • Donald Trump 27% / 56% {-29%}
If your first choice for the Republican Presidential nominee dropped out of the race, who would you vote for instead?
  • Mitt Romney 17%
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Rudy Giuliani 9%
  • Newt Gingrich 8%

Another quick tally shows that a MAJORITY (52%) of these NH voters have Mitt as either their #1 or #2.  With the field certain to winnow (Trump, Rudy, Palin for sure not running, and unlikely runs for Newt, Huck, and Bachman) Romney is poised to have an even larger lead than this poll reflects

Despite who you’re personally voting for, who do you expect the next president will be – Barack Obama or one of the Republican candidates?

  • Barack Obama 28%
  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Donald Trump 8%
  • Mike Huckabee 4%
  • Giuliani, Pawlenty, & Palin at  2% each and several others at 1% each
  • Undecided/Unsure 30%

The pollster concluded the following from these numbers:

“The strong perception in New Hampshire– even among likely Republican voters – is that Barack Obama will stay in the White House,” said Paleologos.

Wow . . . You know it’s a really bad sign for the level of education in the U.S. when a POLLSTER thinks that 28% represents a “strong perception . . . that Obama will stay in the White House.”   It’s either idiocy or bias.  Either way, it’s disturbing.  One could more accurately state “that 72% of those polled DO NOT THINK Obama will stay in the White House.”   Alternatively, they could have tallied up the 42% of voters that chose a GOP nominee instead of the 28% that chose him and proclaimed that NH voters predict a GOPer in the White House in 2012.

On to my personal favorite:

Thinking about Mitt Romney, does his involvement in helping to pass Massachusetts’s universal health care make you more likely to vote for him, less likely, or does it not affect your decision?

  • More likely 14%
  • Less likely 29%
  • No effect 53%

For all the hullabaloo over the whopping albatross that RomneyCare is suppossed to be for Mitt, the voters in NH (most of which share a common media market with Massachusetts and know RomneyCare better than the rest of the nation) don’t seem to agree.  Over TWO-THIRDS of NH GOP primary likely voters feel that either it is a reason to like Mitt more, or, at least, won’t effect their decision whether or not to vote for him.  That’s huge folks.  Of course, this poll conversely shows that some do, in fact, object to Romney over RomneyCare.  Fortunately, it’s a whopping minority and no politician has the goal to win every single vote. There will be enough votes out there for Romney to win the primary and the general election irrespective of RomneyCare.  I’ve stated before that I actually think RomneyCare will be a big strength to him in a general election matchup vs. Obama.   Hopefully Mitt will be able to test my hypothesis in 2012! 

The voters also seem to be able to accept Romney and his role in RomneyCare while still having disdain for the federal over-reach of ObamaCare.

Do you think that the near-universal health care bill passed by Democrats last year should be repealed, modified or left alone?

  • Repealed 52%
  • Modified 34%
  • Left alone 10%

A few final tidbits from the poll:

Are Mormons Christians?

  • Yes 63%
  • No 18%

. . . only 12 percent said the country was heading in the right direction and 84 percent said it’s on the wrong track. The top issues facing the country were jobs and the economy (37 percent) and reducing the national debt (28 percent).

Sounds like a fiscal/financial dominated election and Mitt is the right man at the right time.

Inside the numbers (new story video):

These poll numbers back-up previous polls in NH in the Past week:

WMUR/UNH Poll: Mitt Romney with 25 point lead over second place Donald Trump in NH

WMUR/UNH Poll: Romney Beats Obama in New Hampshire

ARG Survey: Mitt Romney the Big Winner in New Hamphire 

About :

Jeff has been blogging for Romney since living in Iowa in 2006, when, as a physician, he was drawn to study Romney’s MA healthcare reform plan. A native of California, Jeff now claims to be a proud southern transplant (he currently lives and practices as a vitreoretinal surgeon in Birmingham with his wife and six kids) having lived in Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana for nearly all of the last 15 years. His recent hobby is doing triathlons, having completed his first (and only) Ironman Triathlon this past May.

Facebook Twitter YouTube 

Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

9 Responses to Romney Dominating in New Hampshire: Poll Also Provides Evidence That RomneyCare Won’t Hurt Mitt Much

  1. Jon E. S. says:

    “Fox News Channel has terminated the contracts of paid contributors and potential 2012 candidates Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, a spokesman for the network confirmed to CNN.”

    …which leads us to the likely conclusion that Huckabee and Palin will not be in the race because they’re more interested in padding their own bank accounts………and that’s fine with me!!

  2. I wouldn’t count Trump out of the race just yet. And Huckabee seems rather … angry at speculation that he’s not in the race for someone who’s not in the race. I’d wait a bit before crossing him off the list. As for Sarah Palin, well … honestly, you never know what she’s going to do. I think she’s out, but I don’t think it’s certain; it all depends on how Michele Bachmann does in the next month or so.

  3. Marilyn says:

    I think it’s appalling that Pawlenty felt he had to apologize for considerin­g cap and trade. What does this political party want? A puppet on a string? Why don’t these candidates push back? Same goes for President Obama when he’s actually campaignin­g. I don’t want to hear him apologize for anything he’s done, whether I have agreed with it or not. What I’d much rather hear is something along the lines of, “we considered such and such, but decided it wasn’t as good an idea as we had thought originally BECAUSE” and then give the reasons why it was not a good idea. I don’t want a person who is easily manipulate­d by the press, or by talk radio, of all things. I want somebody with some integrity, somebody who is willing to be bold and to take the big risks in order to fulfill the vision for this country that the person has. I don’t want somebody who the libertaria­n think tanks have bought. With that said, there’s certain things that should be sacrosanct to each political party. Social security and medicare for the Democrats, anti-abort­ion and strong defense for the Republican­s. Everything else should be open to debate and discussion­. The platform of the party should reflect the candidate’­s vision, the candidate should not, necessaril­y, reflect the party platform item by item. I think Mitt can be that guy.

  4. Jon E. S. says:

    I didn’t mention Trump. I think he’s much more likely than Huckabee or Palin to jump in the race. As for Huckabee, he’s conflicted between living the cushy life and jumping back into the limelight. Only this time, he won’t get the special (poor little underdog) treatment by the media now that he is a serious frontrunner in the polls.

  5. Marilyn says:

    “The reason for high gas prices is because of the extraordinary growth of demand globally and the inability of this nation to create sufficient supply. It’s a supply and demand imbalance,” he said. “If we’re going to get prices down, we’re going to have to finally address our sources of energy, instead of trying to find a scapegoat.”

    Mitt is absolutely right on this one.

  6. broses says:

    It made Fox mad as a bunch of wet hens, but because Romney didn’t change his campaign schedule and finances around to bow down to them, I think it made him look stronger & more independent. That will increase his crossover appeal to independents and Democrats, imo. He did debate in NH already. And he’s the only one in that group who I really think could beat the pants off Obama. Polls seem to back up that opinion.

  7. Marilyn says:

    He can and he will if he stays his own person. I expect that he will, but if he doesn’t, I’ll be really disappointed.

  8. Todd says:

    Hello my friends, I really wanted to see Mitt at the debate last night… We need his strenth that doesn’t come from him it comes from God! His Patriotism is unmatched among all possible canidates… Believe in America!

  9. ChuckP says:

    It seems clear that Huckabee will enter the race. He has Rollins forming an exploratory committee for him, and he wouldn’t be doing that if he wasn’t serious about a run. With his record of pardoning convicts that went on to murder and rape innocent people, and his destruction of Arkansas state computer hard drives to prevent the dissemination of what should have been public information about his time in office, I thought he would be sensible enough to recognize that he doesn’t have a chance when the DNC ads start to run. I guess I was wrong.