Romney Keeps it Close in NH but Obama Trounces Others
Raleigh, N.C. – New Hampshire is a nominal swing state, but it has gone blue in four of
the last five presidential elections. According to PPP’s latest poll of the Granite State,
Mitt Romney is the only potential GOP nominee with a shot at putting New Hampshire’s four electoral votes in play next year. Otherwise, President Obama leads by margins larger than his almost ten-point victory over John McCain in 2008.
Romney essentially ties the president, with 46% to Obama’s 47%. But the president tops Newt Gingrich 52-39, Mike Huckabee 52-38, Donald Trump 51-37, and Sarah Palin 56-34.
The only candidate who earns more Democratic support than Obama does GOP votes is Romney, who is also the only candidate to tie the president with independents (at 44%). Obama leads the others by 16-22 points with the large 36% plurality who identify with neither party. That essentially explains the varying overall leads.
“Unless Mitt Romney gets the nomination, President Obama should easily win New
Hampshire once again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This state really exemplifies the extent to which the GOP being competitive against Obama is going to depend on who they nominate.”
While other GOP presidential hopefuls have already worn ruts in the ‘woo and coo‘ path through Iowa and jockey to ‘out-devout’ each other, Gov Romney’s focus has been on behind-the-scenes fundamentals. Though he hasn’t yet begun work in Iowa, it’s heartening to see, at this pre-race point, that common-sense conservatives in the Hawkeye State think highly of Romney:
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney enjoy an early advantage among likely Iowa caucus-goers, a poll of Iowa Republicans found Wednesday.
Huckabee would win the Iowa caucuses and Romney would place second, if caucuses including all the potential Republican presidential candidates in the contest were held today, according to a Neighborhood Research survey released Wednesday.
Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), meanwhile, would have an edge in a narrower field of candidates, the poll found.
Twenty-one percent of likely caucus-goers said they would prefer Huckabee, followed by 14 percent for Romney, 9 percent for real estate mogul Donald Trump, 8 percent for Gingrich and 7 percent for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the poll found.
Twelve other candidates registered at 5 percent or below, and 24 percent of respondents were undecided in the first ballot test, which included every possible candidate.
But not all those candidates might run. Huckabee has flirted with a bid, but a number of indicators and quite a bit of insider speculation has suggested he ultimately might not run. Trump’s and Palin’s intentions are also an enigma.
In a second ballot test, excluding all three of those candidates, Romney was the benefactor.
Read more here.
It’s not surprising that Mike Huckabee polls well in Iowa; he’s actively been working to keep his name at the top of the popularity list. It remains to be seen if the FOX News TV host will be a candidate for 2012; if he is, we’ll see how it goes.
Romney says if he runs for president, he’ll run a nationwide campaign, including Iowa. Iowans won’t overlook his economic expertise, his ‘Mr. Fix-it’ record, conservative credentials, and the fact that his leadership was a big help during the recent mid-term elections. His PAC contributed $70,000 last year to help elect Iowa GOP candidates.
No Apology: Believe in America by Mitt Romney
► Jayde Wyatt