Public Policy Polling asks 614 Republican Primary voters: If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney who would you support? [table "8" not found /]
What I find interesting:
- Romney is right in the mix with all conservatives and GOP, but is far ahead of the pack with moderates and independents, which bodes very well for the general election and electability.
- Every poll I see shows that Romney consistency outperforms with men, but lacks with women.
- Palin does very poorly among independents at 3%. I would be very concerned about that if she goes to the general election.
- That big goose-egg (or dash) for Romney with the young crowd has to be a concern. Expanding online campaign to be more ‘hip’ is a must.
- Palin at 60% with 18-29? I have now idea why that would be so extraordinarily high.
- Romney continues to dominate the Northeast while Huckabee continues his reign in the South
What think you?
~Nate G.
Poll Source: Public Policy Polling, March 19, 2010 (PDF Press Release)
Nate owns and manages a small souvenir manufacturing business. He and his wife of 12 years have 2 children. Nate has been blogging for Mitt Romney since late 2006 and is co-founder and editor of MittRomneyCentral.com.
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Goose egg is right. How does one even begin there?
It’s odd that in this same poll, Mitt does better than Huckabee in the South by quite a bit. Conversely, Huckabee does better in the Midwest than Mitt against Obama. It’s a little puzzling.
Also, I’ve seen some recent polls in which Mitt was doing well with the young group, and others just decent, but a goose egg…makes no sense at all.
Nate, You raise some valid concerns about this poll. I have serious issues with PPP. Remember, they had Doug Hoffman winning by 17 points 2 days before the election. Why are they not including Pawlenty (who I do not support) in this poll, or others? Pawlenty is more likely to run than Huckabee or Palin IMO. Ron Paul? You’ve got to be kidding me. A four way poll distorts reality in this case. Palin and Paul are splitting the tea party voters, and Palin and Huckabee are splitting the So-Cons. In addition, what’s with including Indies in a Republican nomination poll? Most states don’t allow Independents to participate in the nominating process. This poll, and all others conducted by PPP, are not worth the paper it’s printed on. I know it’s exciting for Romney supporters, but I’m sure Mitt would even acknowledge these things. It’s too soon for 2012 polls anyway.
@Brian
I agree that it should include Pawlenty but PPP for some reason doesn’t consider him a serious runner or they’d include him. Maybe they don’t because he is currently polling very low, something that could change in the future. PPP has typically included Mitt, Palin and Huck and have used a variety of candidates for a fourth slot. This month happens to be Paul – he wasn’t included in previous months.
the reason it is important to see the independent vote is that we need to elect a conservative that can actually win! not just the primary! he/she needs to be able to win the national election against the democrats and the progressives! the independent voter is what will decide the election! so even though they can not vote in the primaries in most states….they will play a major role in the election!
Last week, PPP posted an online poll on their site. They asked for a preference for a fourth option for the weekly poll. Obviously, the Paulnuts heard about it and hit it hard…not very scientific on the part of PPP, is it?
Ok cj, but that’s not how PPP is presenting it. They’re attempting to predict the nominee (or in this case, IMO, who they would like the nominee to be). They call it a poll of 624 Republican Primary Voters…not a poll to determine strength in a general. PPP polls really need to be taken with a grain of salt. They’re basically an arm of the Democratic party.
CJ, another thing. I see you threw out the progressive term. I have to say it, but Romney is a progressive. He happens to be the only American who currently has a socialized health care system named after him…soon to be joined by Obama. The health care battles are just beginning. 36 states(more to come, I’m sure) are currently preparing legal challenges to many provisions of ObamaCare like the individual mandate. These battles will likely end up in the supreme court. Unfortunately for Mitt, that will prove to be too difficult to overcome in a primary campaign. If you are a Republican running against Mitt, the campaign ads pretty much write themselves. In a general, any criticism of ObamaCare would be blunted by his own failing program in Mass. If he is the nominee, I will certainly vote for him. He seems like a good guy and all, but I just don’t see it.
@Brian
What do you think about Mitt’s explanation at http://mittromneycentral.com/2010/03/07/chris-wallace-grills-mitt-romney-on-health-care-2012-and-more/ Also, have you read what he says about healthcare in his book?
Well, I read a review of Mitt’s latest book somewhere …
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000003572383&topic=Kondracke
oh yeah, Kondrake there contrasts Mitt’s Ulti-conservative tack in the primaries with his practical success in Mass as Governor (nothing on the USAOC or business restructuring) and I think I agree in that the campaign did not emphasize his strengths early on. That allowed Honeybee to garner support from the more libertarian of the Reppies, and Cain finally split the party into three segments, before he tied a ball ‘n chain on us with Palin. Who one, probably stood alone at the time in my appeal to more dialectic (not dyslexic,) campaign tactics and two, actually followed the honey trail to FLA, but I? Un-remorseful, because the FairTax Amendment had its advantages yet repentant, because the bailout which would come along after the convention would’ve energized a would be candidate Romney to victory just as he had done in Mass, I think his early lead in voter favorites is countervailed by Ron Paul’s Win in the CPAC Straw Poll.
The voters in general have no idea where the country is being taken, even as its they — themselves in control of the electorate. You can’t see ahead, only from behind taking in events that have already past. Not unlike driving a car with the seats in reverse an w/o rear-view mirrors, though you can read the signposts up ahead… who but Ron Paul did issue the most accurate convictions about the course of thing to come?
Then if some relative outsider like DeMint (whom, I think isn’t actually a lawyer, but sure can do you like one) emerges, the dialectic forces of mass-movement come into play. So analyzing the conceptions of the loyal mean not so much as short-term thinking. I think, compose a campaign strategy that gets down low about Romney’s executive suitability, that’s what might build up support over the long haul.
Look the working people facing real economic problems. We need to overcome this WWI-like strategy of attrition for a solutions-based approach.
@Tom I watched the show when Mitt was on. I didn’t think it went well. I have not read his book.
I don’t think that the 18-29 age group is of concern here. First, the masses of that age group never votes (including for Obama). Second, CPAC is always a good indicator of how the young people in the Movement feel… and It’s Romney (I will throw out Ron Paul’s highjacking of this year’s straw poll)…
The most active young conservatives (the people who will actually vote) are dominantly for Romney.
i don’t understand the Palin womans’ vote. She was the reason McCain lost the woman’s vote in 08. I can’t see her making headway into that demo.
@Brian
You should read Romney’s book before you call him a progressive –that is a far cry from the truth.
@Chris
I don’t fully agree with your perception, and I’m not sure all women necessarily see things the way you do.
I’m female. Trust me. The womans vote did not go to McCain -and won’t go to Palin.
@Chris Wrong analysis. Women voted disproportionately for McCain.
“Sarah Palin made a vast difference in McCain’s favor. Compared to 2004, McCain lost 11 points among white men, according to the Fox News exit poll, but only four points among white women. Obama’s underperformance among white women, evident throughout the fall, may be chalked up, in large part, to the influence of Sarah Palin.”
http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/2008/11/11/sarah-palin-saved-gop-from-landslide-defeat/
If we, for the sake of argument, accept the goose egg as being “real,” I believe it could be that since these are young (probably rather politically-unengaged) folks .. the majority would have the highest name recognition for Palin from the general election and Huck from TV. That’s my best guess. As early as it is, without anyone actually running, it’s all about name recognition. I’m not as worried about it for right now, but I would hope there’s a game plan for when the campaign actually starts.
The goose egg is a result of a garbage poll by a historically lousy polling firm. There’s no way it would be zero. Take nothing seriously in this poll or any other from PPP. Here’s a link to their poll on the eve of the NY23 special election. They had Hoffman up by 17….even after Scozzafava dropped out. http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/hoffman-leads-big.html
@Brian
I’m going to side with Chris on Palin and the women vote. As usual Dick Morris’ analysis is wrong.
In 2004 Bush won 55% of White Women to John Kerry’s 44%. Kerry won the overall Women’s vote 51% to Bush’s 48%.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
In 2008 McCain won White Women’s vote by 53% to Obama’s 46%. Obama gained 2% points from Kerry. In the overall women’s vote Obama won 56% to McCain’s 43%. McCain lost 5% points of the overall Women’s vote compared to Bush just 4 years prior.
Women did not come out for Palin. If anything the McCain/Palin ticket lost votes.
SED, How can you be certain Dick Morris is wrong? You just picked a different poll.
S
Romney/Palin ticket- she is strong with the young crowd, will bring “diversity” to the table, and a lot of people like her “grass roots ” attitude. I think (and have always thought) that would be one heck of a ticket! I’m not an analyst but I do hear what people are saying, and Romney is a biggie- people love him (me too), and Palin is very popular even with many men (I find it interesting that so many writters focus on the women voting for Palin, I find some of her strongest supporters are men).
I would love to see that ticket- that would be so fantastic.
CBH, Or maybe Palin-Romney. Palin is my first choice. I don’t think she will run, however…and I doubt she would accept the VP slot again. Whether she runs or not, she will have a significant impact on the Republican primaries.
By the way, I attended one of her book signings. At least 3/4 of the people standing in line for as long as 24 hours were women….and they weren’t all white either. They were of all ages, colors, shape, and sizes. There was one in particular that caught my attention. The signing was held in the Mall of America. I showed up about two hours before the signing to scope things out, not planning on standing in line. I noticed a Somali woman standing on one of the balconies with a birds-eye view of where Palin would be signing. I didn’t think much of it, until I noticed that she hadn’t moved 2 hours later when the book signing began. I walked over to where she was standing and couldn’t gelp but notice the tears in her eyes as she watched Palin sign books and interact with people. I also saw many women crying as there were exiting the signing stage. They let a few more people get in line, and I was fortunate enough to be there to get the opportunity. Anyone who underestimates her, does so at their own peril.
Sorry Brian. I thought I linked the 2008 poll as well. You can look at the numbers yourself to compare 2004 to 2008. McCain/Palin lost five percentage points vs what George W. Bush got just 4 years prior.
Here are the 2004 Results
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
Here are the 2008 Results
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1
I’m a woman from the Midwest, Oklahoma City, Ok. to be exact who can’t wait to vote for Mitt in 2012! Hope he’ll pick Jim DeMint as his VP, if he wins the nomination. Go Mitt, go! =)