Rasmussen Poll: Huckabee Wins the Day with 29%

Rasmussen published a GOP presidential nomination poll yesterday with Governor Mike Huckabee in the lead (29%), Romney behind 5% in second (24%). with Palin in a more distant third (17%). This is indeed good news for Mike Huckabee and fans, but I would caution them, and anyone else, not to become too invested in polls like this so far out. Much can and will change. And yes I would be saying the same thing even if Romney were in the top spot in the poll right now. The only thing one gains from winning polls this early in the game is a big target on their back and negative publicity from opposing parties or factions.

In early 2006 Rasmussen did a similar poll for the 2008 GOP nomination. The results: Rudy 24%, Condi Rice 18%, and McCain at 17%. Well, we all know who ended up winning. But in the interim Rudy, McCain, Romney and Huckabee all took turns leading in the national polls. Two of those were not even on the radar in the 2006 poll (Romney and Huckabee). It’s possible that Pawlenty, and perhaps even Santorum, could make such a run and we’ll be looking at an entirely different field in 2011. I recall that Romney was at single digits for all of 2006 and the early part of 2007, and was constantly being poked-fun at as “the single digit candidate”. For that reason I caution all to watch out if Pawlenty’s campaign gains traction. I still believe Romney has the advantage at this point, but the competitors are not as far behind as they were before.

There are many other tangibles and intangibles that factor into how well a candidate is preparing for a distant election besides the national polls: PAC fundraising performance, media appearances, Op-Eds, speeches, authoring books, PAC organization strength, campaigning for and making alliances with fellow candidates for GOP offices, etc. Having a TV show with millions of weekly viewers, plus a radio show, is certainly helping in Huckabee’s case, as is evident from the poll. They are an advantageous luxury the others won’t be able to have. The shows I’m sure are a great net positive, but there are some minor downsides as well: less free time to raise funds for the PAC and campaign on the behalf of others.

Congrats to Huckabee, the victor of the day.

The results from Rasmussen:

These numbers reflect an improvement for Huckabee since July when the three candidates were virtually even. Huckabee’s gain appears to be Palin’s loss as Romney’s support has barely changed.

The numbers for Huckabee and Romney look even stronger when GOP voters were asked which candidate they would least like to see get the nomination. Pawlenty came on top in that category with 28%. Palin was second at 21% while 20% named Gingrich. Romney and Huckabee were in the single digits with 9% and 8% respectively.

Huckabee and Romney are viewed favorably by 78% of Republican voters, Palin by 75%. Gingrich earns favorably reviews from 69% while Pawlenty is less well known and gets a positive assessment from 45% of Republicans.

…

Republican voters are very confident their nominee could be the next President of the United States. Eighty-one percent (81%) of the GOP faithful say that it’s at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will defeat Barack Obama in 2012. Fifty percent (50%) say it’s Very Likely.

~Nate Gunderson

UPDATE: Some interesting head-to-head match-ups plus favorables/unfavorables are posted at Race42012.com.