Exit polling: Democrats pick McCain over Romney

Is this really a surprise?

Despite urging from some activists like Daily Kos’ Markos Moulitsas that Michigan Democrats vote for Mitt Romney over John McCain, CNN exit polling indicates the Arizona Republican won the liberal vote.

McCain captured 41 percent of Democrats who voted in the Republican primary, 10 points more than Romney. Mike Huckabee meanwhile, only captured 14 percent of Democrats.

Hewitt: Easy W for Mitt

Hugh gives us his take:

Romney Wins Easily

John McCain lost a sizeable lead in Michigan lead and with it the MSM momentum.

Mike Huckabee threw everything trying to recreate the Iowa upset and fell far short, and has now wounded himself with the argument about amending the Constitution to reflect “God’s law.” (See Andy McCarthy’s short but devastating commentary.)

And Mitt Romney has now re-established himself as the candidate to beat over the very long campaign.

The key? As Rush said this morning: A McCain or Huckabee nomination would be a disaster for the GOP because they are not Reagan conservatives. Republicans are now voting in large numbers, and they are voting for the Reagan conservative. There is no reason to believe that John McCain will be able to recapture his New Hampshire moment or Huck his Iowa surprise.

Read another sweet story of victory at NY for Mitt: Primary Politics, NASCAR Style

Now We’re Cooking with Gas

CNN and Fox are projecting Romney wins Michigan. On to Nevada and South Carolina.

Romney will beat Huckabee by more than double. I think Huckabee is facing a do or die in South Carolina. He has shown no ability to compete outside of Iowa. If Huckabee comes in second in South Carolina, that will be a problem for him, because that is his natural base, to the extent he really has one.

Romney is also on pace to trounce McCain soundly as well. This is a huge defeat for McCain. They can try and play down Mitt’s win in Michigan, but the fact is McCain won Michigan big back in 2000 against Bush. McCain couldn’t attract the independants and democrats to support him like he did before. In short, he is losing his appeal.

Finally, Giuliani may end in single digits tonight. That is really bad for him. I am not sure he can fend off the onslaught of candidates into Florida after Saturday. Romney will likely be winning the delegate count soundy, clearly winning the popular vote, and have one of his signature issues to campaign on, health care.

Still nothing solid

All I’m seeing around the blogosphere is rumor and conjecture, but the mood feels different than the last two times around. Of course, it doesn’t seem as though anyone wants to give Romney credit, if it is indeed a win here. From my vantage point, the media seem somewhat annoyed that Romney is still competing. They wanted to kill his campaign after Iowa, even more after New Hampshire and want to discount Michigan as some sort of homefield advantage. Don’t believe the home field advantage hype. Romney hasn’t lived in Michigan in years and his father was the governor back in the 60’s (Quick, name all the governors you know from the 60’s).

If Romney wins tonight, it will be because of message.

Don’t forget it.

Gold Medal in Michigan?

I just posted this story at NY for Mitt and quickly discovered it wasn’t up here yet.

This story comes from Hugh’s blog:

Romney 35, McCain 29, Huckabee 15, Ron Paul 10, Giuliani 4?

Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 6:33 PM

That’s what Geraghty the Indispensable is hearing.

Cue the fat lady for Huck and McCain. The former can’t get above 15% with a huge effort, and McCain can’t win in an open primary state, one crucial to the fall, even when the Dems take a bye?

Of course, these aren’t the final numbers. After getting burned in both Iowa and New Hampshire, I now am extremely cautious about putting value on outcomes.

But, isn’t this leaked exit poll data encouraging? We’ll see how it goes throughout the evening.